8/1 Ings – and Oxford at Wembley tonight…
Monday 13th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- League One Playoff Final…
- Ramos returns for Real Madrid…
- Ings a good price…
8/1 Ings – and Oxford at Wembley tonight…
The daily football continues this week. I’ve got mountains to write to you about. My notes are brimming over with observations, scorer stats and team trends. I’ll be emailing you with all my analysis, and all my advice, throughout the week.
It’s brilliant to have the football back, even in empty stadiums. And this summer, the action rolls right into August with the Champions League and Europa League competitions to be completed. I’ll be looking at the revised prices for those UEFA tournaments tomorrow.
Plus, we’ll have ante post and season-long prices to consider later this summer, in markets such as Top Goalscorer, tackling the upcoming 2020/21 campaigns.
Before all that though – let’s get down to business with matters at hand today…
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Oxford at Wembley tonight…
There are three matches that get our attention today. And we’ll start at Wembley…
Before the playoffs began, we got on Oxford United for League One Promotion at a top price 11/4 (3.75).
Karl Robinson’s side are now 8/13 (1.62) to go up. To achieve that, they’ll need to get past Wycombe Wanderers in the final.
Oxford beat 10-man Wycombe 1-0, in their only previous meeting this season. The U’s are 21/20 (2.05) to win in 90 minutes (normal time).
The playoffs usually provide a bit of drama. Skybet make the sides 11/1 each to win on penalties, and go 5/1 for it to be settled in extra time (by either team).
As well as our Promotion pick on Oxford to lift to trophy, there’s player in yellow that we should follow in the Cards markets today…
Alex for a card at 2/1…
Oxford midfielder Alex Gorrin Rodriguez is the man to watch here…
- Alex was born in Tenerife, is of Spanish nationality, and his shirt says Rodriguez on the back. Some bookies or commentators etc refer to him as Gorrin
The 26-year-old is the most-booked player in League One this season, with a total of 11 yellow cards in the regular season. He then received two more in the playoff semi-finals, booked in each leg v Portsmouth.
Gorrin Rodriguez collected one of his yellows in his side’s 1-0 win over Wycombe back in December.
With all to play for tonight, in what will be the biggest game that some of these players ever take part in, backing the man that the stats say is most likely To be Booked looks a sensible move, with odds of 2/1 and bigger available.
Each Way First Scorers…
Picking out a First or Anytime Scorer on any given day can be a slippery business. You can back a player one day, see him draw a blank, only for him to then go on and score the opener in his very next outing…
The key is to always take the best price – and not wade in when the odds drop below what you’re happy to accept.
Goals expected in Italy…
Last time out in Italy we flagged up Romelu Lukaku for Inter Milan. He’s in action again this evening, with Inter Milan travelling to Torino. Once again, goals are expected in Serie A…
Inter have had six out of six Over 2.5 Goals results since the restart. Torino have had four in a row. That option is odds-on at 8/15 (1.53). So too is Lukaku, as short as 8/13 (1.62) to find the net. We got a better price last time. At today’s quotes, I’m happy to leave him for now.
Ramos returns…
In Spain, for Villarreal v Real Sociedad tonight, Gerard Moreno was in my early notes for the Scorer betting. He got a yellow card last time out though, so must now sit out a one-match ban for this one.
At the top of La Liga, though, Sergio Ramos returns from suspension today…
With the Real Madrid captain in title-winning goal-scoring form since the restart, don’t be surprised if Ramos pops up again with a goal or two from a set piece or penalty again this week.
With the La Liga season ending this weekend, we shouldn’t miss the chance to back the league leader’s goal-scoring centre back while we still can…
Real Madrid have won eight out of eight since the league resumed last month, with the last five all Won to Nil. Madrid are 4/9 (1.44) for the away win at Granada tonight, and 11/8 (2.38) at best for another win with a clean sheet. Going to the Scorer markets gives us a more attractive option…
Ramos is top price 17/2 (9.5) to score first in tonight’s game. I like him at those odds in Paddy Power’s ‘Each Way’ First Goalscorer market, paying out on multiple places/ goals.
Alternatively, take the best price you can get in the respective standard Anytime and First Scorer markets.
Ings can continue to surprise…
Likewise, Danny Ings for Southampton at Old Trafford this evening…
Ings is having the season of his life, joint-3rd in the Premier League top scorer chart with 19 goals, level with title-winning Mo Salah, despite playing for a team in the bottom half of the table.
The Saints striker has landed First Goalscorer bets in three of his last five games, with all three of those coming in away games.
With price being key, this trip to Man Utd presents Scorer odds for Ings that are twice as big as in recent games for Southampton…
Man Utd have won four in a row, covering a -1 and -2 Match Handicap in all of them. But the Saints could be a trickier opponent than odds of 3/10 (1.3) for the home win suggest, as shown by a recent 1-0 victory against Man City.
What’s more, Ings has already delivered against plenty of the big boys this season. Finding the net against Tottenham, Leicester, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Wolves – all teams in the top half of the table, as are Man Utd.
In recent weeks, Ings has been around 4/1 (5.0) in the First Goalscorer markets. Today, going to Old Trafford with the likes of Anthony Martial, Marcus Radford, Odion Ighalo and teenager Mason Greenwood for Man Utd all ahead of him in the betting, odds of 17/2 (9.5) and 8/1 (9.0) could prove good value on the away team’s danger-man.
As with Ramos, my preference is the Each Way option in the First Goalscorer market, with the bookies that offer it. Or take Ings in the separate Anytime & First markets.
Today’s picks
Oxford Utd v Wycombe (7.30pm, Sky Sports)
League One, Playoff Final
- To be Booked: Alex Gorrin Rodriguez @ 12/5 (3.4) with Bet365, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 19/10 (2.9) Betway
Man Utd v Southampton (8pm, Sky Sports)
Premier League
- First Goalscorer – Each Way: Danny Ings @ 17/2 (9.5) with Bet365, 8/1 (9.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Granada v Real Madrid (9pm LaLigaTV)
Spain, La Liga
- First Goalscorer – Each Way: Sergio Ramos @ 17/2 (9.5) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-5 places (goals) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, unlimited goals with Bet365, Skybet.
I’ll be back tomorrow when we’re be looking at the latest formbook trends, some of our season-long positions, the Champions League odds, and the Tuesday fixture list & prices.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
