The loneliness of the long-distance bettor…
Tuesday 14th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Long-term betting…
- Odds worth waiting for…
- 20/1, 33/1, 40/1…
The loneliness of the long-distance bettor…
Now that our football services have merged, ante post betting will form a key part of your new Across the Leagues service.
Long-term bets require a certain mindset and a fair amount of patience.
When you put your money down on a team to win the league or a cup, or a player to be top scorer, you don’t know when you’ll see that cash again. Chances are, more often than not, you’ll never see it again.
But if you can get one or two in at big prices over the course of a couple of seasons or years, it’s all worth it…
Three worth waiting for…
In a normal season, you could wait nine months for such a wager to be settled.
In this season’s league Outright Winner, Champions League, FA Cup, Top Goalscorer, Promotion and Relegation markets, it’ll be more like 12 months for some people’s 2019/20 bets, struck as far back as July & August last year.
That’s the case for us, in this unexpectedly elongated season. If you happen to have been with me all through the current campaign, receiving my Football Angles emails and analysis, you will likely be on one or two or all of these ‘open’ Top Goalscorer bets:
- Premier League – Jamie Vardy @ 20/1 Each Way
- Championship – Ollie Watkins @ 33/1 Each Way
- Italy, Serie A – Ciro Immobile @ 16/1 Each Way
With bookies paying 1/4 odds for 1-4 places, those three men are all in good positions for a payout, as we edge towards the season finale:
- Vardy is in 1st place on 23 goals, 3 ahead of the nearest rival, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Danny Ings and Mo Salah make up the current 4 Each Way places, on 19 goals each. There are 3 games to go in the Premier League
- Watkins is joint-1st in the Championship with 24 goals, level with Aleksandar Mitrovic. Lewis Grabban has 20 goals, and two players are on 18. There are 3 rounds of games left
- Immobile is in 1st place in Serie A, on 29 goals. He’s one ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo, who has closed the gap since the restart, having been 6 goals behind Immobile when the season was halted. There are 6 games to go in Italy
Big-picture positions…
When it comes to bets like these, price is everything. We won’t win often. Vardy, Watkins and Immobile might not even pay out at all. But the current prices illustrate how strong the positions that we’ve been able to get into are:
20/1 (21.0) Vardy is now 1/4 (1.25)
33/1 (34.0) Watkins is now Evens (2.0)
16/1 (17.0) Immobile is now 10/11 (1.91)
The waiting game can be a lonely one. And many long-term, season and tournament bets will fall by the wayside. You have to be prepared for that, and able to accept it. The payoff is there to be seen in the prices. It’s all worth it in the long run. And then some.
Swans still afloat…
Moving on to our most recent picks in the Outright markets, that we’ve placed since the Across the Leagues merger. For every blow like Oxford losing in the League One Playoff Final last night, there’s a handsome bet with legs to be had, and to cheer for…
Like our 40/1 outsiders for promotion from the Championship, Swansea. The Swans are one point off the playoff places, with three fixtures left. The bookies now make them a still-speculative 20/1 to go up. Wednesday night’s game against fellow promotion contenders Nottingham Forest will be a big one.
Again, it’s all about price. These bets, these odds, 20/1, 33/1, 40/1, they’re exciting. And they’re not the stuff of dreams, either. They really do win. We’ll be looking to find them.
Granted, we’ll probably never find a 5,000/1 shot like Leicester winning the Premier League. But you & I will certainly be getting ourselves some big, appealing prices, and working towards that goal week in, week out.
And actually, that doesn’t sound too lonely at all…
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. And the next day. There’s a lot of football on. And in with all the dozens of games and hundreds of betting markets, there will be opportunities for us. That’s for sure.
P.S
I’ve been threatening to cover the revised Champions League & Europa League prices, ever since the quarter final draws were made last week. There’s no rush. The ties don’t kick off until August. I’ll update you on my UEFA notes tomorrow (I promise).
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
