First Scorers lucky dip at 89/1…
Thursday 16th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Injury-time drama…
- First & Anytime Scorers…
- Three form men for this evening…
First Scorers lucky dip at 89/1…
Before we head into today’s analysis, I’ll reiterate a point we made the other day…
Scorer betting can be a slippery business. You can back a player to score one day, and they draw a blank. The very next game they score. And the dance goes on. The key is to make sure you only get involved when the prices and circumstances suit.
Last time out in Spain we noted that goal-scoring defender Sergio Ramos was back from suspension for Real Madrid. He didn’t find the net on his return, but a standout 17/2 (9.5) in the First Goalscorer market was a bigger price than the 7/1 (8.0) you’ll get on him today (Real Madrid v Villarreal, 8pm).
There are two rounds of games left to go in La Liga, one tonight and then the final day on Sunday. With Ramos taking penalties for the Spanish title favourites, we shouldn’t be surprised to see the Madrid captain pop up with a goal in one of the two remaining fixtures.
- Ollie Watkins scored the only goal of the game for Brentford last night. A 1-0 win over Preston was an 8th straight league win for the Bees. And that goal nudges Watkins into 1st place in the Championship Top Goalscorer chart, one ahead of Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic, with 2 games to go. A 33/1 Each Way pick at the start of the season, Watkins is now odds-on at 1/4 (1.25) to take the prize
Looking at this evening matches, we should stick with the in-form strikers…
Three form men for this evening…
‘Luck’ is a funny thing. Last night, with 90 minutes on the clock, our Correct Score pick Charlton were 1-0 up at Birmingham, and on course for an 8/1 payout. The home team equalised in the 92nd minute, some 60 seconds or so before the final whistle. Final score: 1-1.
And injury-time near miss always smarts a little. But if you look at it another way, Birmingham missed a penalty in the first half – so it could’ve been a different story again.
The message is: we get into enough good positions at good prices like that, we’ll do plenty alright over time.
Here’s my take on this evening matches, with a couple of big-price angles…
With games running out in the current season, it could pay to latch onto these streaky strikers while we still have the chance:
- Leicester v Sheffield United. Jamie Vardy is the Premier League’s top scorer with 23 goals, and has found the net 4 times in his last 3 games…
- Southampton v Brighton. Danny Ings is joint-3rd in the scorer table, with 19. Since the restart, Ings has landed First Goalscorer bets in every other game. If that pattern was to continue, then he’d be on course to open the scoring this evening…
- Athletic Bilbao v Leganes. Raul Garcia has given 10 First Goalscorer payouts this season, making him the No.1 player in La Liga for that bet. Garcia has scored within the first 20 minutes and landed First Scorer bets in 4 of his last 7 games He takes penalties, too…
Attractive combinations…
Those three home-team players are the men most likely to find the net for their respective teams this evening: Vardy, Ings & Garcia.
All are available at just over Evens (2.0) each in the Anytime Scorer markets. And at around 3/1 (4.0) – 4/1 (5.0) each to score First.
Take your pick with singles or combinations, if & where you see fit.
With an eye on an attractive scorer payout, my choice is an Anytime treble at a top price 11/1.
And with the combined First Goalscorer odds coming out as high as 89/1, a speculative route (with a bit of sensible built in) is to split a 1-pt stake four ways and roll those three into a Trixie. That’s three doubles & a treble. Any two First Scorers will give an overall profit.
With large upside potential like this, we don’t need to hit the mark very often to make it pay. Today could be one of the good nights. It might not. There’s no way of knowing. But the formbook and match-ups look promising to me…
Today's picks
Leicester v Sheffield United (Premier League, 6pm)
Southampton v Brighton (Premier League, 8.15pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Leganes (Spain, La Liga, 8pm)
- TREBLE – Anytime Scorer: Jamie Vardy, Danny Ings & Raul Garcia @ 11/1 (12.0) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 9/1 (10.0) Skybet, BetVictor
- TRIXIE – First Goalscorer: Jamie Vardy, Danny Ings & Raul Garcia. Best prices with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, then Betway, Boylesports, William Hill
I’ll be back tomorrow with stats, analysis & advice for the weekend games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
