Europa League semi final – Inter v Shakhtar…
Monday 17th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Europa League semi final…
- Inter Milan v Shakhtar Donetsk…
- Two men for the book tonight…
Europa League semi final – Inter v Shakhtar…
If you’re on our Name the Finalists bet in the Europa League, then you’ll be cheering for Inter Milan this evening…
After Sevilla beat Man Utd in the first semi final last night, we’re now one game away from landing our ‘Inter Milan & Sevilla’ selection from the start of the month.
A 16/1 or 14/1 shot when first advised, that Name the Finalists combo is now an odds-on chance. With Inter Milan ‘To Qualify’ for the final priced at 1/3 (1.33) going into tonight’s match.
We’ve got one foot in the winners’ enclosure there. But the bookies don’t pay out on near misses. We need Inter Milan to get past Shakhtar Donetsk this evening.
The Italian side are the favourites to get to the final. But there are never any guarantees in sport. Just ask Man City, who were the big favourites of the weekend, and lost 3-1 against Lyon in the Champions League quarter finals. The French club were 11/1 underdogs in that match.
Price is the key point. Going into today’s second semi final, we essentially have odds as big as 16/1, on an outcome that is now an odds-on 1/3 chance. Getting in positions like that is what our picks in the Outright markets are all about.
- If you’re looking to protect your stakes on that original Name the Finalists bet, then the move to make as a saver bet would be to back Shakhtar Donetsk ‘To Qualify’ today. That option is a best price 5/2 (3.5) with Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Picks & analysis for tonight…
Moving on to the match-day markets for Inter Milan v Shakhtar Donetsk…
Three of the four Champions League quarter finals saw the underdog score first (Atalanta, RB Leipzig and Lyon), and two of them went on to win the match. So, we shouldn’t rule out Shakhtar springing a surprise in this Europa League semi final tonight.
Knockout drama…
So far in these new, UEFA Final Eight knockout ties, just one of the nine fixtures played has gone to extra time (Man Utd-Copenhagen). And we’re yet to see a penalty shootout…
The Method of Victory options are something to keep an eye on in the remaining high-pressure matches, with big semi finals & finals on the schedule this week.
In their ‘How Will The Tie Be Decided’ market for tonight’s game, Skybet go 11/2 (6.5) for either team to win in extra time, and 7/1 (8.0) for it to be decided on penalties.
With tonight’s remaining Europa semi, then the two Champions League semi finals, and the finals of both competitions, all still to come. I’d say there’s a pretty good likelihood that we’ll see some late drama in at least one of these ties, be it in normal time, extra time or on pens:
- So far this month, 6 of the 8 UEFA Final Eight knockout games settled in normal time have seen a goal scored in the 87th minute or later
Potential for goals…
The stats say goals are to be expected. Seven of the nine knockout games in this new format have gone Over 2.5 Goals, and also paid out on Both Teams to Score.
And these two teams bring some fairly strong form in that respect. Both clubs dropped into the Europa League after being knocked out in the Champions League group stage this season:
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 10 of Shakhtar’s 11 games across both UEFA competitions this season. There have been goals at both ends in 8 of them
- Inter were the 2nd highest scorers in Serie A this season. Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 6 of their 10 games in Europe, with the same strike-rate for Over 2.5 Goals
In those markets, Over 2.5 Goals is a 4/7 (1.57) favourite today, and Both Teams to Score is also odds-on, at 8/13 (1.62). The Ukrainians are the 15/8 (2.88) underdog for First Team to Score.
Lukaku short on value…
In the last week or so we’ve set out our stall, opposing the favourites in the Scorer markets for Man Utd v Copenhagen and Man City v Lyon.
In the first example, Man Utd had the top 12 players in the Scorer betting, and they all drew a blank, with the game ending 0-0 in normal time.
And in the latter match, Man City had the top nine players in the list. Only for Lyon’s Maxwel Cornet to open the scoring at outsider prices. Cornet was 11/2 (6.5) to score Anytime, and 18/1 (19.0) to score First. (Our Lyon pick Memphis Depay remains on the radar going into the semi finals later this week.)
Tonight, Inter Milan’s top scorer Romelu Lukaku is the man at the head of the betting…
The Belgian has scored in four out of four Europa League games since the knockout rounds started in February, as well as in his last two appearances in the Champions League before Christmas. In fact, going back to his time at Everton in 2014/15, Lukaku is on a record nine-game scoring run in the Europa League. On more recent form:
- Since play restarted in Italy in June, Lukaku has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 out of 14 games, with 4 x First Goalscorer payouts
The problem is making Lukaku pay at the prices on offer. Today, you’ll do well to get much better than 10/11 (1.91) for the Inter striker to score Anytime. And he’s the 3/1 (4.0) favourite in the First Goalscorer market.
At those odds, backing Lukaku in both markets in every game since the restart, you’d have only just made break-even. Romelu is the main man for Inter. But it’s hard to make a case for him at these odds.
Last time out, we identified Junior Moraes as the dangerman up front for Shakhtar. Moraes is around 2/1 (3.0) to score tonight. And 7/1 (8.0) to score first, for what would be a fourth straight Europa League game. Those three first-goal payouts came against Wolfsburg (twice), and then Basel last week.
Against an Inter defence that has kept six clean sheets in their last eight games overall, things could be tougher for Moraes here. Also, with our Name the Finalists pick in mind, I’m reluctant to back an outcome that would hinder the Italian side’s chance of going through tonight.
Play your cards right…
One area where we could make the player markets pay today is on the Cards & Bookings.
- 8 of the 9 Final Eight knockout games so far have seen 4+ Cards
- Last season, both 2nd legs of the Europa League semi finals produced 5+ Cards
This evening, the bookies are anticipating a high-cards game. In the Total Cards market, Bet365 are going Over 5.5, as are Betway and 888 Sport. Skybet are just 1/2 (1.5) that we’ll see 50+ Booking Points (eg. 5+ Yellow Cards).
The Polish referee could have a part to play, too….
- Szymon Marciniak dished out 5 yellows for RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid in the Champions League last week, and 6 yellows for Wolves v Olympiakos in the Europa League before that. He’s handed out 4 red cards in his last 8 appointments in the Polish league
With both teams doing battle for a place in a European final tonight, we could see tempers flare and some cynical fouls, especially as the clock runs down…
We’ve spoken a bit about ‘scripts’ recently. A reasonable scenario tonight would be one team protecting a lead near the end – and the other desperate to avoid defeat, and willing to go down fighting.
Men for the book…
We’ve done well with the Player to be Booked market in recent weeks. With three out of six payouts in that department since July 1st, at odds of 9/5 (2.8), 12/5 (3.4) and 7/2 (4.5), for a 77% ROI to level stakes.
Players that fit the bill here include that man Moraes again, this time at 15/8 (2.88). Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have stuck out the best price, going 12/5 (3.4) for the striker to be booked. Overall, Moraes has picked up nine yellows in 19 games for the Ukrainian club this season.
Fellow Shakhtar attacker Alan Patrick is also in the 2/1 (3.0) bracket for this market. The Brazilian has got nine yellows and one straight red in 18 games in 2019/20. He was booked in the quarter finals for a trip on a Basel player, breaking up a counter attack out wide.
In terms of value, going after an Inter Milan player could be a worthwhile tactic here…
The Italians are the match favourites, but in terms of the Team with Most Cards market tonight, the bookies don’t put much between them. For example, Betway go 13/10 (2.3) on Inter for that bet, with Shakhtar only very slightly ahead at 6/5 (2.2).
Two men stand out for me in the middle of the park. Inter midfielder Nicolo Barella has been booked in four of his last six games in all comps. The Italian was his club’s most-carded player in Serie A this season. Paddy & Betfair are a top-price 23/10 (3.3).
Teammate Marcelo Brozovic is similar prices. The Croatian was Inter’s 2nd most-booked player in the league this season, behind Barella. Brozovic has picked up two bookings in his last four games.
With Shakhtar’s attacking trio of Moraes, Patrick and Taison causing all sorts of problems in the 4-1 win v Basel in the quarter finals, it could be that the Inter engine room needs to roll up their sleeves this evening to protect the defence when needed…
If you like the more speculative First Player to be Booked option, then BetVictor is the place to go for the biggest prices tonight. With Barella at 10/1, and Brozovic at 14/1.
On this occasion, with the potential for cards coming late on, I prefer the 90-minutes market. In the region of 2/1 each, Barella and Brozovic look two good men to follow.
Today's picks
Europa League
Inter Milan v Shakhtar Donetsk
8pm, BT Sport
- Player to be Booked: Nicolo Barella @ 23/10 (3.3) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/5 (2.4) Skybet, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, Betway, Boylesports
- Player to be Booked: Marcelo Brozovic @ 23/10 (3.3) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, 17/10 (2.7) Skybet, William Hill, 6/4 (2.5) BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports
The Champions League semi finals start tomorrow. We’ll be previewing RB Leipzig v SG on Tuesday, then Lyon v Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
This week I’ll also be laying the groundwork for our ante post bets for the new 2020/21 season. Lots to look forward to there, with League Winner, Top Goalscorer, Promotion and Relegation among the markets we’ll be considering in our quest for value prices, and big winners.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
