Weekend Preview - 7/1 picks and final day in Spain...
Friday 17th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Final day in Spain…
- Making the case for a 1-0 Correct Score…
- Italian goals stats…
Weekend Preview - 7/1 picks and final day in Spain...
I’m away for a few days next week, but before I go, I’m signing off with a bumper weekend preview for you today…
Empty Wembley…
It’s FA Cup semi finals weekend at Wembley. Ordinarily this line-up would be a blockbuster, with two match-ups designed to be played in front of a full house…
Arsenal v Man City
Man Utd v Chelsea
Of course, this is no ordinary season. And while these ties will take place at the national stadium, there won’t be many people in the ground.
There’s lots to play for, though. City are chasing multiple honours. While a cup win would make the 2019/20 season go down as a success for Mikel Arteta, Frank Lampard or Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
In the Outright Winner market, the bookies make Man City odds-on favourites to go all the way, at 8/13 (1.62).
Final day in Spain…
Real Madrid were crowned La Liga champions last night. A 2-1 win over Villarreal, coupled with Barcelona losing at home, confirmed Zinedine Zidane’s men as league winners.
We talked about Sergio Ramos yesterday, earmarking the Madrid captain as a likely contender to pop up with a goal and/ or penalty in this final week of the Spanish season.
Anyone backing Ramos to score would’ve been pretty peeved last night…
Ramos won a penalty, stepped up to take it… then rolled it ‘cheekily’ into the path of the Golden Boot chasing Karim Benzema. The latter encroached in the box during Ramos’ run-up, though, so the penalty was ordered to be retaken. This time, Ramos just let Benzema take it.
Benzema is now on 21 goals, two behind Lionel Messi with just Sunday’s round of games to come.
A word of warning…
In my final-day research for La Liga this week, I’ve come up with this ‘warning’ stat. Which if nothing else, should make you think twice about taking any short match winner odds for the top teams in Spain, where there is little left to play for…
Key stat:
- In the last two seasons, with the league title already decided by the final day on both occasions, there has been just one win recorded across 6 total games featuring the Top 3 sides Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid
On Sunday afternoon, Real Madrid go to 17th place Leganes, who won at Bilbao on Thursday night and need a win to stand a chance of avoiding relegation…
Real have won 10 in a row in the league, but Leganes need the points. That explains why there’s not much in it on the Match Result prices. Leganes are 17/10 (2.7), Madrid are 6/4 (2.5).
Elsewhere, runners-up Barcelona – who have failed to win three of their last six games – go to Alaves, who won last night to secure their safety from relegation. Odds of 8/13 (1.62) at best for the Barca away win hold little appeal.
Atletico Madrid need just a point to guarantee 3rd place. A top four finish and Champions League qualification is already assured. Atletico host Real Sociedad, who need points to keep European qualification in their own hands. Atleti are 21/20 (2.05) for the home win. Again, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the price on the favourites.
Last chance for the ‘alternative’ Top Scorers…
If you take the big, star names out of the La Liga 2019/20 Top Goalscorer table (Messi, Benzema, Luis Suarez), these four guys are the next best:
Gerard Moreno (Villarreal), 16 goals
Raul Garcia (Athletic Bilbao), 15
Iago Aspas (Celta Vigo), 14
Lucas Ocampos (Sevilla), 14
Since returning from lockdown:
- Moreno = 5 goals in 9 games (1 penalty), 4 x Anytime Scorer payouts, 3 x First Goalscorer
- Garcia = 6 goals in 9 games (2 pens) 4 x Anytime Scorer, 4 x First
- Aspas = 5 goals in 10 games (3 pens), 5 x Anytime, 1 x First
- Ocampos = 4 goals in 10 games (3 pens), 4 x Anytime, 3 x First
In this weekend’s Anytime Scorer markets for those players’ respective games, all four are available at around the Evens (2.0) and 2/1 (3.0) mark.
In the First Goalscorer betting, Aspas is 3/1 or just over to open the scoring with his Celta Vigo side going to bottom club Espanyol. Moreno is touching 4/1 to score first in Villarreal’s last game of the season, at home to mid-table Eibar.
My simple approach is to take the two men at the very best prices. And that’s Raul Garcia and Lucas Ocampos…
Both are available at a standout 7/1 or 6/1 in the First Goalscorer markets, which is bigger than you’ll get for any of the other names I’ve mentioned there, including Messi, Benzema and Suarez.
At the age of 34, Garcia has had his best-ever season in terms of La Liga goals. His 10th place Bilbao side go to 8th place Granada.
Ocampos & Sevilla are at home v Valencia. That one is 4th v 9th in the league table. The 26-year-old Argentinean has landed First Scorer payouts in two of his last four games – and he also opened the scoring in the reverse fixture against Valencia earlier in the campaign.
With those men on penalty-taking duties, too, I have no qualms about putting them up as the best prices in this final round of La Liga fixtures.
Making the case for a 1-0 Correct Score…
On Wednesday evening we were literally seconds away from clicking with a 1-0 Correct Score for Charlton at Birmingham. That 8/1 score-line pick was denied by an injury-time equaliser.
This Saturday, it will be interesting to see what Total Goals result we get at Charlton…
Lee Bowyer’s side have had six out of seven Championship games go Under 2.5 Goals since the restart. Opponents Wigan have won five out of seven since play resumed, and won 8-0 (eight-nil) in midweek, but had a 0-0 on the road before that.
The bookies are slightly on the Under 2.5 side for that game, at 4/5 (1.8), with Over 2.5 Goals priced at 21/20 (2.05).
QPR v Millwall…
On the 1-0 hunt, the stats & form paint a convincing picture for Millwall right now:
Key stats:
- Millwall have won 3 of their last 5 games, all by the 1-0 score
- 8 of the Lions’ last 9 league wins have all be To Nil
- 7 of Millwall’s 16 wins this season have paid out on the 1-0 Correct Score
Hosts QPR match-up on this pattern, too. The R’s have lost five of their seven games since the restart, and three of those defeats were by a 1-0 score-line.
With QPR in mid-table and Millwall gunning for three points and the chance to enter the playoff places, the momentum and incentive is with the away team going into this match.
The away win is around Evens (2.0). Millwall To Win to Nil is 11/4 (3.75). I like the 1-0 Correct Score option, more speculative, but with greater rewards on offer – 15/2 (8.5) and 7/1.
Italian goals stats…
Last but not least we head to Italy, where there are still five rounds to go in Serie A…
The big match on Monday night sees leaders Juventus against Lazio, who have slumped from 2nd to 4th since returning to action. Lazio are four games without a victory.
This one will also see the top two scorers go head to head. Our man Ciro Immobile is three games without a goal, but still hanging in there, one ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo.
In six appearances post-lockdown, Immobile has got more yellow cards than he has goals. Let’s see if Ciro and Lazio can regain some form in the next week or two.
In the Serie A stats on our website, two Over 2.5 Goals teams catch the eye…
Key stat:
- Sassuolo (82% strike-rate) and Atalanta (79%) are the top teams in Serie A this season for Over 2.5 Goals bets
Sassoulo are on a nine-game run for Over 2.5 Goals results (eight in a row since returning in June). In fact, six of those last eight outings have seen 4+ Total Goals, paying out on Over 3.5 Goals.
Atalanta won 6-2 last time out, the latest in a long stretch of high-scoring games. With other post-lockdown score-lines including 2-2, 2-3, 3-2 and 4-1. And six Over 2.5 Goals outcomes in a row before that too, with a 7-2 away win in March, along a 7-0 on the road in January.
Trying to pick out a fanciful Correct Score bet from that lot probably requires a crystal ball, although you’d be wise advised to avoid 0-0…
The double on those teams’ games both going Over 2.5 Goals this weekend is my call.
Today's picks
Spain, La Liga:
Granada v Athletic Bilbao (Sun 8pm)
- First Goalscorer: Raul Garcia @ 7/1 (8.0) with BetVictor, 13/2 (7.5) Bet365
Sevilla v Valencia (Sun 8pm)
- First Goalscorer: Lucas Ocampos @ 6/1 (7.0) with 888 Sport, Unibet
Championship:
QPR v Millwall (Sat 3pm)
- Correct Score: Millwall 1-0 @ 15/2 (8.5) with BetVictor, 7/1 (8.0) Bet365, Sportingbet
Italy, Serie A:
Verona v Atalanta (Sat 4.15pm)
Cagliari v Sassuolo (Sat 6.30pm)
- DOUBLE – Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (2.2) with William Hill, 21/20+ (2.05+) in general
Some calm before the storm…
It’s been a busy couple of weeks of activity for us. With the merger of our two football services into your new, all-in-one Across the Leagues service. And stacks of matches across Europe as the leagues all cram in their remaining 2019/20 fixtures.
I’m squeezing in a (UK) holiday next week. The website will be updating automatically for you with Head-2-Head bet comparisons for every game. And we’ll send you an update when the Player stats and Scorers have been added back onto the site, too.
Expect an email update or two from me next week. Before we go full steam ahead in August with daily coverage of the Champions League and Europa League ‘mini tournaments.’ They should be entertaining. I’ll be bringing you all my stats, research and advice.
And finally…
Boris says we could see fans back in football stadiums in October. That feels like light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel news for sports fans. Even the sun is shining where I am today. Let’s hope it lasts.
Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
