RB Leipzig v PSG tonight – rising star at 12/1…
Tuesday 18th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Champions League semi finals…
- RB Leipzig v PSG…
- Analysis & advice…
RB Leipzig v PSG tonight – rising star at 12/1…
I didn’t call the script right last night. I was expecting a more competitive match.
But if we’re talking ‘predictions,’ then we’ll settle for having named both the finalists, from back before the full quarter final line-up was even decided…
Last night’s comfortable 5-0 win for Inter Milan against a lacklustre Shakhtar Donetsk side sets up Friday’s Europa League final between Inter and Sevilla.
In the Name the Finalists market, the Inter-Sevilla combo was our 16/1 and 14/1 pick from the start of the month.
That’s a great example of what our Across the Leagues selections are all about…
Our Europa League & Champions League picks this month are a case in point. So far in August, we’ve had 20 bets on those two competitions, and just five payouts.
But as I said last week, and I’ll say many times again: we will have more losers than winners. It’s all about price.
For every 14/1 First Goalscorer pick that leaves us empty-handed on the night (like Jonas Wind for Copenhagen last week)…
We’ll be more than compensated on the days when everything clicks into place. As it did with our 16/1 Name the Finalists selection in the Europa League. Or the 25/1 Half Time/ Full Time turnaround for PSG against Atalanta in the Champions League.
It’s not easy. You have to be able to stomach losing streaks. It’s a marathon not a sprint. But over time, it’s more than worth it.
- How are you getting on? Did you manage to get 16/1 or 14/1 on the Name the Finalists pick? Or maybe you’ve been using the extensive range of unique betting stats on our website to make your own selections…
I’d love to hear how you’re doing. Email me at: info@oxonpress.co.uk with ‘Across the Leagues’ in the subject line. Cheers.
Champions League semi finals start tonight…
On to tonight’s football now, and things are about to get serious in the Champions League…
The semi finals take place this week:
RB Leipzig v PSG – Tonight 8pm
Lyon v Bayern Munich – Wed 8pm
If the bookies are right, then the final will be a mouth-watering, star-studded clash between PSG and Bayern. That option is odds-on in Skybet’s Name the Finalists market, at 8/15 (1.53). At the other end of the betting, the outsider duo, a Leipzig-Lyon final, is 20/1.
Two huge nights of European football ahead of us, then. And of course, we’ll still have both the Europa League final and Champions League final to come at the weekend.
Analysis & advice – RB Leipzig v PSG…
This is a battle of the rich kids. Leipzig are the newcomers, shooting up through the leagues over the last decade or so, powered by Red Bull. In comparison, PSG are a long-standing European giant, but starved of success outside of the French domestic competitions for some time.
Neither club have ever lifted the Champions League trophy. This will be the first meeting between Leipzig and PSG.
The German side are the underdogs here, 10/3 (4.33) to win in normal time, and 2/1 (3.0) To Qualify for the final. Paris Saint-Germain are 3/4 (1.75) at best to win in 90 minutes, and 2/5 (1.4) favourites to go through.
We haven’t had a shootout yet…
- After last night’s Europa League semi final, we’ve now seen 10 matches in these new UEFA Final Eight knockout events. So far, only one has gone to extra time. And none have gone to penalties
I’m going to keep mentioned that stat, because, if nothing else, I’d love to see one match go the whole way to a shootout, if only for the drama.
Armchair-fan reasons to one side, the Method of Victory markets also present some fairly attractive odds, if you fancy picking which team could sneak it.
Tonight, for example, Bet365 go 16/1 for Leipzig to Win on Penalties, and 14/1 for PSG to win on a shootout. That would be a nail-biter. Skybet go 6/1 for Either Team to win on pens.
Lightning to strike twice?
On the topic of big prices in the match result betting, then we shouldn’t let this game pass without mentioning the Half Time/ Full Time market.
If you think lightning will strike twice, then PSG are 22/1 to repeat last week’s trick and be losing at half time & winning at full time. The reversal of that HT/ FT scenario, PSG/ Leipzig, is the 40/1 outsider. Those prices are with Skybet.
Fire-power up front…
- In 7 of their 10 games in all competitions since play resumed, Leipzig have scored 2+ goals
In six of those matches, the now-departed Timo Werner was on the score-sheet. Leipzig managed okay without Chelsea’s new striker in the quarter finals, though, a deserving 2-1 winner v Atletico Madrid.
- In 12 of their 21 games since the turn of the year, PSG have scored 3+ goals
The French champions have two absolute superstars up front. Neymar, and Kylian Mbappe. The world’s two most expensive footballers have scored 48 goals between them for PSG this season. Neymar has weighed in with 19 goals from 25 total appearances. Mbappe has netted 29 times in 34 games.
Both have had injuries this season. But Neymar has played every minute of PSG’s last five games. And Mbappe changed the game when he came on for the last 30 minutes in last week’s quarter final comeback win over Atalanta.
In terms of the Scorer betting today, it’s take-your-pick between those two at the top of the list. Both men are priced at around Evens (2.0) each to score Anytime, and between 7/2 (4.5) and 4/1 (5.0) to score First.
If there was a Man of the Match market for this game, then Neymar and Mpabbe would of interest there, too. Maybe we’ll get that option in the final.
Don’t rule out Leipzig…
While the PSG players will get all the hype, we shouldn’t overlook the Leipzig prospects this evening.
And with PSG possibly having to play their reserve goalkeeper this evening, this pacey Leipzig team might look to spring a surprise…
The Red Bull club finished 3rd in a very strong Bundesliga this season. And with this Champions League match played at a neutral venue in Portugal, it’s also worth noting that only champions Bayern Munich scored more goals away from home in the German league than Leipzig this term.
With nine games played each, PSG and Leipzig have both lost just once in this Champions League campaign.
Last time out v Atletico Madrid, we noted that Emil Forsberg has ‘super-sub’ potential for Leipzig. He didn’t get on the pitch that night. But the Swedish forward has found the net in nine games this season, and seven of those outings have seen him land Last Goalscorer bets. Forsberg is a best price 12/1 for that option tonight (Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook).
Rising star at 12/1…
The player I like is the man that scored Leipzig’s opening goal in the quarter finals. Dani Olmo arrived from Dinamo Zagreb in January. The fast, skilful 22-year-old is shaping up to be a star.
Olmo scored three goals in four games in the European Under 21 Championships last summer. Before scoring on his senior debut for Spain earlier this season.
Since joining Leipzig, the attacking midfielder has scored a total of five goals in 14 appearances. When in the starting XI, Olmo has landed Anytime Scorer bets in three out of 10 games.
And he’s landed First Goalscorer bets in two of his last four starts…
At standout odds of 4/1 to score Anytime and 12/1 to score First (Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook), this young player looks one to follow. He could announce himself on the big stage with a goal tonight.
Today's picks
Champions League
RB Leipzig v PSG
8pm, BT Sport
- First Goalscorer – EACH WAY: Dani Olmo @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (Each Way terms: 1/3rd odds 1-5 goals)
Alternatively, take the best prices on Olmo in the individual Anytime Scorer and First Goalscorer markets.
I’ll be back tomorrow, when we’ll be looking at the second semi final, Lyon v Bayern Munich.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
