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Our plan of action for the 2020/21 Outrights…

Thursday 20th August 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Warming up for the new season…
  • In search of the next 20/1 and 33/1 shots…
  • 2020/21 bets in the pipeline…

Our plan of action for the 2020/21 Outrights…

Bayern Munich breezed past Lyon last night, setting up an exciting-looking Champions League final against PSG this Sunday evening.

Bayern strike early once again…

Yesterday’s analysis was in the right ball park. Bayern’s 3-0 win covered both the -1 and -2 Match Handicaps, for the third game running. The Bundesliga champions have now won 20 games in a row in all competitions.

And while my ‘1-10 Minutes’ pick for the Time of First Goal didn’t land, the early-goal stats we pored over in yesterday’s match preview certainly pointed us in the right direction…

Serge Gnabry opened the scoring for Bayern after 18 minutes. Continuing the German club’s habit of being fast starters:

3-0 win v Lyon: First Goal 18 mins (Serge Gnabry)
8-2 win v Barcelona: First Goal 4 mins (Thomas Muller)
4-1 win v Chelsea: First Goal 10 mins (Robert Lewandowski, pen)
4-2 win v Bayer Leverkusen: First Goal 16 mins (David Alaba)
4-0 win v Wolfsburg: First Goals 4 mins (Kingsley Coman)
3-1 win v Freiburg: First Goal 15 mins (Joshua Kimmich)

If we get an early goal on Sunday night, it could light the touch-paper for an exciting Champions League final.

Did anyone take the plunge in the spread betting markets last night? As discussed in yesterday’s email, spread betting has to be treated with caution. But the rewards are there when you make the right moves.

With yesterday’s two examples in mind:

  • SpreadEx’s 1st Goal Time line was set at 28 mins to Sell (bet low). The opening goal in the Lyon v Bayern Munich game came in the 18th min. Meaning the Sell @ 28 mins was settled at a profit of 10 x stakes (the difference between 28 and 18)
  • The 1st Bayern Goal marker was at 34 mins to Sell (bet low). Gnabry scored that 18th min goal for Bayern. That market was settled with the Sell @ 34 mins for a profit of 16 x stakes (34 minus 18 = 16)

And I'm telling you all this because...

There’s so much more to your Across the Leagues emails then what I put in the ‘Today’s Picks’ box. I give you all my analysis, research, thoughts and findings.

I lay out the options, as I see them – and you can choose what looks good to you, or go your own way…

Take Across the Leagues member Mike F, for instance. Mike landed himself a 25/1 winner on Luka Modric getting the First Card in the Man City v Real Madrid game earlier this month, after we looked at the Card contenders in our match-day email. That’s great to hear.

Warming up for the new season…

The Premier League 2020/21 fixtures were released this morning. The Match of the Day headliner for the weekend of 12th September will surely be Liverpool v Leeds Utd.

The wheels are in motion for the start of the new season…

  • You and I have lots to look forward to in 2020/21. Not least some big new additions coming to our members-only stats website. I’ll have an announcement on that for you soon

With kick-off dates on the calendar for September in the Premier League, English Football League and flagship European divisions. We’ll be making a few carefully selected moves in the ante post, outright markets between now and the opening day (and probably a few once the first rounds have been played, too).

Ante post betting…

Outright betting forms a significant part of your Across the Leagues service. As well as coverage of weekly matches, I’ll be naming picks throughout the year in the ante postseason-long league & cup markets…

These could be Each Way, 20/1 or 33/1 Top Goalscorer selections, a 66/1 shot for the FA Cup or Champions League, an early-bird pick for the European Championships next summer. A League Winner or Relegation bet.

Whatever the league or competition, one thing will be consistent: we’ll be going for attractive prices. Hunting for value. Looking for a bet that can give us a great run for our money, with the potential of some very decent returns when it all falls into place.

And at odds such as 28/1 and 40/1, you don’t need things to fall into place very often to get ahead in the long run.

The old adage is true: the early bird gets the worm…

Last season, our business included these three players & prices in the Top Goalscorer markets:

  • Premier League, Jamie Vardy @ 20/1 Each Way – won
  • Championship, Ollie Watkins @ 33/1 Each Way – placed 2nd
  • Italy Serie A, Ciro Immobile @ 16/1 Each Way – won

And with the seasons cut short in Leagues One & Two, we had to settle for void bets with stakes returned on a couple of players that were in good positions before lockdown:

  • League One, Ian Henderson @ 20/1 Each Way – joint-2nd when season suspended
  • League Two, Nicky Maynard @ 12/1 Each Way – 2nd when season suspended

More recently, in the Europa League knockouts this month, we latched onto Inter Milan & Sevilla in the Name the Finalists market, for a 16/1 or 14/1 winner…

Russell C emailed in to say he had to badger Paddy Power for his winnings on that Name the Finalists one this week, but after a slight delay, he was “a tad richer” the next day. Good stuff.

Coming soon – first picks for 2020/21…

The new season is approaching fast. We’ll be casting the net far and wide, with ante post picks taking in the League Winner, Cup Winner, Top Goalscorer, Relegation and Promotion markets. Across the English Football League and also looking at the top European divisions…

The strategy will be to bet selectively, and at the biggest prices possible.

I’m conducting my pre-season research. A few bookies have started to go up with their 2020/21 markets…

In the Championship, for example, William Hill are the sole firm showing on Oddschecker for a Top Goalscorer market. They have relegated Norwich’s top scorer, Teemu Pukki as the 8/1 favourite. Followed by two men that we were on at fancy prices last season, Ollie Watkins and Lyle Taylor.

Those two were 33/1 and 50/1 respectively when we flagged them up at the start of 2019/20. For the upcoming season, William Hill have Watkins as second favourite at 10/1, and Taylor at 14/1. We’ll be looking to unearth some big odds again for a couple of outsiders on the list.

There are also summer transfers to consider. In the case of Watkins and Taylor, for example, it’s possible that one or both might have made the move to a Premier League club come September.

One man in the book already…

We’ve already got one open selection in the 2020/21 Top Goalscorer betting. The Scottish Premiership started earlier this month, and before the opening day I talked up the speculative chances of 125/1 Each Way shot Callum Hendry for St Johnstone.

Hendry & St Johnstone are playing their first home game of the season tonight, v Aberdeen.

The early leaders in Scotland on three goals each are the pre-season favourite, Odsonne Edouard (Celtic). Along with Scottish Premiership newcomer Kevin Nisbet (Hibernian), and Chris Burke (Kilmarnock).

Edouard and Nisbet both got hat-tricks to notch their three goals. Hendry is yet to get off the mark, but tonight’s game v Aberdeen is a game in hand for his St Johnstone side…

  • As I write, Hendry is still trading at 125/1 Each Way with Bet365, but down to 50/1 with Skybet, William Hill and BetVictor

Digging for nuggets…

That’s a taster of the kind of markets and prices we’ll be going for over the weeks to come. We’re three weeks away from kick off in the Premier League and English Football League. I’ll be using that time to get some potentially valuable 2020/21 pre-season picks to you.

And as ever, I’ll be sharing my workings and research, so you can see the logic behind my conclusions…

For example, here’s the kind of ‘nugget’ we’ll be using to inform our decisions:

  • No player has ever won the Premier League Golden Boot in their debut season in the English top-flight

Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang came closest to breaking that trend, finishing in a three-way tie in the 2018/19 Top Goalscorer chart (Mo Salah won the Golden Boot by virtue of having more Assists).

Taking a first look at the new, 2020/21 market, that stat puts a question mark by Chelsea’s big new signing up front, Timo Werner

The 24-year-old, arriving from the German Bundesliga where he was 2nd in the top scorer table in 2019/20, is priced between 10/1 and 14/1 to finish top of the pile in his first season in the Premier League. We’ll probably be looking elsewhere…

Before we get onto our ante post betting, I’ll be in touch tomorrow when we have the small matter of not one but two big European trophy matches to look forward to. The Europa League final on Friday night, then the Champions League final on Sunday.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

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