7/1 speculation for tonight’s playoff match…
Monday 27th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Vardy lands the odds at 20/1…
- 40/1 Swansea have a 1st-leg lead…
- Cardiff v Fulham, 7.45pm…
7/1 speculation for tonight’s playoff match…
I’m back from my break, and I’ll be in your inbox with regularity this week…
The Premier League season has finally ended, but it’ll be back soon enough. September 12th, to be precise (all being well).
Coming up in August the big event is the Champions League ‘mini tournament’ in Portugal. As well as the conclusion of the Europa League in a similar format.
Believe it not, the new Scottish Premiership season kicks off this coming weekend. That will be the first focus of our 2020/21 pre-season picks. More on that later this week.
The big picture…
Talking of season-long selections, some of our long-term 2019/20 picks are coming to fruition.
In the Championship, our 33/1 Each Way pick (from the Football Angles service), Ollie Watkins, finished 2nd in the Championship standings, just one goal off the top.
With bookies paying four places Each Way, Watkins gave a place payout at a quarter of the odds.
And on Sunday in the Premier League, 33-year-old Jamie Vardy became the oldest ever winner of the Golden Boot…
Backed at a top price 20/1 Each Way in early August, Vardy landed the full odds, finishing on 23 goals, one ahead of both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings.
In terms of current positions still standing, 16/1 Each Way pick Ciro Immobile bagged a most welcome hat-trick last night. With two games left to play, Immobile is now three goals ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo in Serie A.
And for the recent business that we’ve all been involved in since the Across the Leagues merger, our 40/1 Championship Promotion outsiders Swansea are now 7/2 (4.5) to go up, and 5/6 (1.83) to reach the playoff final…
Sunday was a decent day. With Vardy holding on to land Top Goalscorer, Immobile scoring a hat-trick, and Swansea beating Brentford 1-0 in their playoff semi final, 1st leg.
The immediate picture…
I’ll have more Outright, Top Goalscorer and ante post analysis coming up for you this week and into August.
For today though, the pressing matter at hand is the 1st leg of the other Championship playoff semi final…
Cardiff v Fulham…
As with Brentford, Fulham have been right up there in the playoff places and automatic promotion hunt for most of the season. One or both of those teams will be seriously gutted if they miss out now.
Cardiff are the underdogs in this one, 2/1 (3.0) to win the 1st leg this evening, and 6/5 (2.2) To Qualify for the final at Wembley.
The ‘obvious’ bet to look at for tonight’s game is the man who pipped Ollie Watkins to the Championship Top Goalscorer award, Aleksandar Mitrovic.
The Fulham striker scored in both league games v Cardiff this season. Mitrovic is a top price 7/4 (2.75) to score at Anytime, and 9/2 (5.50) to score First. Those industry-best odds are available with Bet365.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Mitrovic pop up with an important contribution at some point in the playoffs, be it today, in the 2nd leg, or the final (he takes penalties, too).
For me today though – ever on the lookout for a more off-the-beaten-track route to profits, and a good price – the backwater ‘draw’ option in the Most Corners market catches my eye, at 7/1…
Close corners form…
Back in February I flagged up this ‘obscure draw’ bet as a 7/1 shot for Napoli v Barcelona in the Champions League. The corners score ended 2-1 that night; most definitely in the right ballpark for that speculative foray into the Most Corners betting.
Tonight’s playoff match between Cardiff and Fulham ticks the box with some close-corners criteria, too…
- Cardiff recent home corners scores: 4-5, 3-2, 2-5, 4-3
- Fulham recent away corners scores: 5-4, 8-7, 8-6, 6-6
And looking at the season-long stats from our website…
Neither team has been strong on landing Most Corners bets:
Cardiff home = 7 out of 23 games (30%)
Fulham away = 7 out of 23 games (30%)
Meetings this season:
Fulham 2 Cardiff 0. Corners = 3-3
Cardiff 1 Fulham 1. Corners = 4-3
The Head-to-Head stats suggest it could be a close-run thing tonight, too. With these home v away corner averages:
- Cardiff home averages = 4.3 Corners For, 5.3 Against
- Fulham away averages = 4.7 Corners For, 5.3 Against
Corners markets going 50-50…
The bookies can’t make up their mind much either way for this one…
In the Total Corners betting, Under 10.5 Corners is the slightest of Under/ Over favourites, at 4/5 (1.8). With the Over 10.5 option at Evens (2.0) at best.
The Corner Handicap has Cardiff as the narrow underdog with a +1 Corner Handicap head start, and Fulham as the -1 Corner Handicap leader.
Spread betting firm Sporting Index have the Corners Supremacy as a tight call, too. With Fulham backers asked to ‘Buy’ (bet high’) at a 0.9 supremacy for Fulham. In that example, bettors Buying Fulham at 0.9 would make 0.1 x their nominated stake profit if Fulham were to end the game with exactly one corner kick more than Cardiff.
The standard, fixed odds Most Corners markets have Cardiff at 6/5 (2.2) at best, and Fulham topping out at Evens (2.0). That’s a 50-50 market…
The Most Corners: Draw is available at 7/1 (8.0). Given the stats, recent corners scores, and the head-to-head figures, this is one of those days when backing the speculative corners ‘tie’ appeals.
Today's pick
Championship Playoffs
Cardiff v Fulham (7.45pm, Sky Sports)
- Most Corners : Draw @ 7/1 (8.0) with Skybet , William Hill , 13/2 (7.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/1 (7.0) Bet365, BetVictor
Note: some bookies call this market the ‘Corners Match Bet.’ And at BetVictor, the option you’d want is called ‘Corner Handicap (0): Tie (Cardiff 0).’
I’ll be back tomorrow with my next angles, analysis & advice for you.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
