14/1 for a parting gift in Parma…
Tuesday 28th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Scottish Prem research this week…
- Serie A stats & pointers today…
- Parma v Atalanta, 6.30pm…
14/1 for a parting gift in Parma…
Last night’s Championship playoff match certainly had a low Total Corners count. There were just four flag kicks awarded, and they all went to the away team. The corners score ended: Cardiff 0 Fulham 4.
We didn’t get the 7/1 corners ‘draw’ there. But at those odds, when the stats point to a close call on the corners, we’ll be going in again in the future.
Fulham take a 2-0 aggregate lead back to Craven Cottage for the 2nd leg on Thursday.
In the other semi final, our 40/1 Promotion hopefuls Swansea take a 1-0 lead to Brentford. That 2nd leg tie is on Wednesday evening. A draw or win would be enough to take the Swans to Wembley…
The Scottish Premiership returns this Saturday. I’m working on my early research for the 2020/21 season this week.
Our focus in Scotland will be on the Top Goalscorer charts. Namely the contenders for an Each Way run, at an attractive price.
Skybet were first up with their scorer market. A few other bookies have followed today. In the next couple of days, we should have a decent range of Top Goalscorer prices to compare.
Stats and pointers for Serie A this evening…
On to today’s analysis now, and there’s one player we’re concentrating on today in terms of the most appealing odds on offer. We’ll get to him in a moment.
There are two rounds of the 38-game season left in Serie A. There are two matches in the Italian top-flight this evening, Parma v Atalanta and Inter Milan v Napoli…
You’d be right to expect some goalmouth entertainment today. Atalanta and Inter are ranked No.1 and No.2 respectively on the Serie A ‘Total Goals Scored’ table on our website (you’ll find the Totals lists in the Serie A League Stats section of the site).
Inter have been true to their high-scoring form since the restart, with 10 out of 11 games since June going Over 2.5 Goals. Opponents Napoli have seen six of their last seven league games pay out on Both Teams to Score.
Top scorers Atalanta came roaring out the blocks with 4-1, 3-2 and 2-3 wins in June. The big score-lines have died off in recent weeks though, with their last three Serie A results reading: 1-1, 1-0, 1-1. A 2nd place league finish is still a distinct possibility. But it could be that Atalanta have more than one eye on the upcoming Champions League quarter finals.
Goals and Scorers…
In terms of the match-day betting markets, the bookies are clearly anticipating goals in Italy today.
For Inter v Napoli, Over 2.5 Goals is a top price 8/11 (1.73), with Both Teams to Score 8/13 (1.62) at best. And for Parma v Atalanta, the Over 2.5 option is just 2/5 (1.4), with goals at both ends no better than 4/7 (1.57).
With an abundance of scoring & creative talent on show, it’s a bit of a ‘take your pick’ when it comes to the player markets, especially where the favourites are concerned. Market leaders include Romelu Lukaku for Inter (scored in five of his last nine Serie A games), and Duvan Zapata for Atalanta (goals in four of his last five).
In the Anytime Scorer markets, Lukaku is 5/4 (2.25), and Zapata is odds-on, at 4/5 (1.8). Skybet have the top prices. In the First Goalscorer lists, the Inter Milan man is 7/2 (4.5), with Zapata at 3/1 (4.0).
Playing just off the strikers for Parma, Dejan Kulusevski is one to watch. Not only tonight, but also next season and beyond…
The ‘Trequartista’ is off to Juventus…
Trequartista is one of those football words that pops up every now and again, especially when waxing lyrical about the beautiful game.
Traditionally describing a player that threads things together between the midfield and the forwards, when you look at the 2019/20 Serie A stats for Dejan Kulusevski, you can see why he uses that word to describe himself…
At just 20 years of age, this talented Swedish youngster – with Macedonian roots – is ranked joint-4th in the official Serie A statistics this season for Most Assists, and joint-3rd for Key Passes.
Add in nine goals, and it’s no wonder that nine-time reigning champions Juventus have already got his signature secured for next season…
Kulusevski was snapped up in January for 35 million Euros. He’ll join Cristiano Ronaldo and co at the end of this campaign. That means tonight will be Dejan’s final home game for Parma…
His Parma side have found the net in all 11 of their games since play resumed, with 2 Goals For in each of their last three at home. Visitors Atalanta have managed just one clean sheet in their last seven on the road. There’s certainly scope for a home team scorer here.
With two goals in his last two games, and four in his last 10, the departing Kulusevski could be that man.
14/1 catches the eye…
For the season overall, this left-footed youngster has nine goals in 34 league appearances. In the betting markets, Dejan’s scoring exploits equate to nine Anytime Scorer payouts, and four First Goalscorer returns.
Using the general prices of 3/1 (4.0) Anytime Scorer and 11/1 (12.0) First Goalscorer for today’s match as a guide, backing Kulusevski to level stakes in every Serie A appearance this season would’ve produced: 6% ROI Anytime, and 41% ROI First Scorer.
Add in the fact that the 20-year-old has been in particularly sharp form post-lockdown, and that larger prices than in those examples are available with one or two firms today, and Kulusevski is a player well worth backing in this penultimate game of the season.
In their First Goalscorer, Each Way market, Bet365 offer 1/3rd odds Each Way unlimited scorers. Our man available at a standout 14/1 there.
- Alternatively, you could take the best prices you can get in the respective standard Anytime and First Scorer markets
Today's pick
Parma v Atalanta
Italy, Serie A
6.30pm, live on Premier Sports & the LiveScore app
- First Goalscorer – Each Way: Dejan Kulusevski @ 14/1 (15.0) with
Bet365, 11/1 (12.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Each Way terms: 1/3 odds unlimited goals with Bet365, 1-5 places (goals) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
I’ll be back tomorrow with more analysis & advice for you. As well as the start of the Scottish Premiership coming up, we also have the FA Cup final to look at this weekend.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
