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Spotlight - Champions League stocktaking...   

Wednesday 7th February 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

  • Spotlight – Champions League stocktaking...
  • Latest odds on the Last 16...
  • Don’t rule out a surprise finalist...
SPOTLIGHT

The Champions League returns next Tuesday with the first wave of Knockout games...

Champions League – Last 16:

Basel v Man City
Juventus v Tottenham
Porto v Liverpool
Real Madrid v PSG

  • 1st Legs – Tue 13th & Wed 14th Feb

Chelsea v Barcelona
Bayern Munich v Besiktas
Sevilla v Man Utd
Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma

  • 1st Legs – Tue 20th & Wed 21st Feb

Latest odds on the Last 16...

There are 16 teams left in the running for European club football’s biggest prize. Here’s how the bookies bet:

Outright Winner prices (decimal odds in brackets):

Man City 3/1 (4.00)
PSG 5/1 (6.00)
Bayern Munich 5/1 (6.00)
Barcelona 6/1 (7.00)
Real Madrid 8/1 (9.00)
Liverpool 16/1 (17.00)
Man Utd 16/1 (17.00)
Juventus 20/1 (21.00)
Tottenham 25/1 (26.00)
Chelsea 33/1 (34.00)
Roma 50/1 (51.00)
Porto 150/1 (151.00)
Sevilla 150/1 (151.00)
Shakhtar Donetsk 150/1 (151.00)
Besiktas 200/1 (201.00)
Basel 500/1 (501.00)
  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Champions League stocktaking...

Only one team can win it, but all 16 have standout stats worth keeping on our radar – with potential betting opportunities in the upcoming ties in mind.

Here are some of the top-performing bets from the Group stage games:

Man City
Most Corners 83% (5 out of 6 games)
-1 Corner Handicap 67% (4 out of 6)

PSG
-2 Match Handicap (win by 2+ goals) 83%
Top scorers in the competition – averaging 4.17 goals per game

Bayern Munich
Over 2.5 Goals 100% (6 out of 6)

Barcelona
Clean Sheet 83%
Best defensive record in the competition – with just one goal conceded

Real Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals 83% (5 out of 6)
Most Corners 83% (5 out of 6)

Liverpool
Most Corners 100%
-1 Corner Handicap 83%
2nd highest Corners For stats in the competition – averaging 8.67 per game

Man Utd
-1 Corner Handicap 83%

Juventus
Over 3.5 Cards 83%

Tottenham
Over 10.5 Corners 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%

Chelsea
Under 10.5 Corners 83%

Roma
Clean Sheet 100% at Home (3 out of 3)

Porto
Both Teams to Score 83%

Sevilla
Both Teams to Score 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%

Shakhtar Donetsk
Over 2.5 Goals 83%

Besiktas
Both Teams to Score 83%

Basel
Under 10.5 Corners 83%

Along with our Historical Champions League Stats from recent seasons, and the latest 2017/18 domestic form, the standout stats above can help us hunt out the top-rated match-ups for the upcoming 1st Leg ties.

  • Your first Champions League Picks & Analysis email for the Knockout stages will be with you on Tuesday, 13th February

Ronnie the record-breaker...

In terms of the Outright Winner markets, our Season Preview is doing okay thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo’s record-breaking start to the campaign...

Ronnie became the first player to score in all 6 Group games, and with a total of 9 goals so far he’s 3 ahead of the nearest competitors in the Top Scorer chart.

Ronaldo was our pre-season 4/1 (5.00) pick for Top Scorer. He’s now Evens (2.00) at best and as short as 4/6 (1.67).

Don’t rule out a surprise finalist...

Our outside bet on the Outright Winner, 22/1 Atletico Madrid surprisingly went out in the Group stage. They’ve dropped into the Europa League and been installed as the 4/1 favourites for that competition.

In terms of the Champions League trophy destination, that tie between 3/1 PSG and 8/1 Real Madrid is obviously massive. And with the likes of Man City, Bayern Munich and Barcelona all also single-figure prices, the tournament winner competition looks as fierce as it’s ever been.

Recent history says a team from further down the list reaching the final wouldn’t be as much of a surprise as some may think, though...

Last year’s runners-up Juventus were 12/1 pre-season, and the year before that we got a 10/1 Each Way place payout from 20/1 Atletico Madrid... Juve and Atletico had both made a final each in the two seasons before those, too... Borussia Dortmund were runners-up in 2012/13 and Chelsea were a big-price winner in 2011/12.

I’ll be concentrating on the match opportunities next week, but there’s certainly some food for thought there in the Outright Winner debate.

Coming up...

Look out for your Champions League Picks & Analysis email on Tuesday.

And before that, I’ll be in touch with your Weekend Picks & Analysis this Friday, when there’s a full set of domestic games for us to focus on.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

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