Weekend Picks & Analysis - including Liverpool v Man Utd...

Friday 13th October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Liverpool on the Corner Handicap...
• Three strong match-ups in League One...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

All systems go...

With the World Cup Qualifying Groups completed, we now have a consistent run of weekly domestic games to look forward to as the autumn schedule really settles in...

The Premier League, Championship and Scottish Premiership return this weekend – along with a full set of League One and League Two games.

There are also midweek games in the Football League next week, and the next round of Champions League fixtures kick off on Tuesday.

Before you know it the clocks will have gone back, and the floodlights will be coming on at half time on a Saturday afternoon in stadiums big and small, up and down the land.

This week the action gets going early on Saturday with the big game at Anfield at 12.30pm...

Liverpool on the Corner Handicap...

Liverpool v Man Utd

Premier League, Sat 12.30pm – Sky Sports

• Liverpool -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in their last 6 games in all competitions

This classic English fixture was the focus of our Spotlight feature this week (view Wednesday’s email here).

The recent head-to-head form between Liverpool and Man Utd, along with some key stats from this season and last, pointed to Liverpool in the Corners markets.

Here’s a recap of our findings:

In 5 of the last 7 league meetings between these sides, Liverpool have won the Most Corners. And in 4 of those 5 Most Corners results, Liverpool failed to win the game.

In fact, Liverpool haven’t won any of the last 6 league meetings, and in that time Man Utd have won the Most Corners just once.

Liverpool go into this one with Home advantage, but with just one win in their last 7 games in all comps. In comparison, Man Utd are flying high at the top end of the table (level on points with Man City), and have won 6 in a row in all comps.

In other words...

If Liverpool are likely to be up against it on the score-board this weekend, then they’re also likely to be a decent proposition to win the Most Corners.

It’s also worth noting that Man Utd have been out-cornered in 5 out of 6 games v last season’s Top 6, since December.

Moving on to today’s markets and prices...

The Most Corners market has levelled out with Liverpool the favourite at around 1/2 (1.50).

But to get the most out of Liverpool’s corner-winning stats we can get a bigger price by looking to the Corner Handicap market...

Liverpool have landed a -1 Corner Handicap in 6 games in a row in all comps, and they also covered that Handicap in both games v Man Utd last season.

The Reds have won the Most Corners in all 3 league games at Anfield so far this season, averaging 4.3 Corners per game more than opponents.

With the history and recent form, the -1 Corner Handicap at around Evens (2.00) looks the best way to profit from Liverpool’s stats.

• Liverpool -1.5 Corner Handicap and Liverpool -1 Corner Handicap are the same bet with a different name. Both pay out if Liverpool win 2+ corners more than Man Utd

Three strong match-ups in League One...

These three games in League One tick plenty of boxes on the stats and form this weekend...

Walsall v Blackpool

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 13 of Walsall’s last 14 games in all comps

Walsall are on an eye-catching run for Both Teams to Score...

On the Top 10 Tables on our site they are the No.1 team in the country for this bet right now, and are 1st place in League One for Both Teams to Score with an 83% strike-rate (10 games out of 12).

At Home, Walsall are most prolific with 8 out of 8 payouts in all comps, including a 100% Home league record of 6 out of 6.

Blackpool look a good match-up with 5 Both Teams to Score payouts from their last 6 games in all comps, and 5 out of 6 payouts Away in League One so far this season...

Bristol Rovers v Oxford Utd

League One, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Bristol Rovers’ last 11 league games

The Goals stats make this one of the best match-ups of the week...

Bristol Rovers are on a big run in League One for Over 2.5 Goals; they put 6 goals past Northampton last weekend and that was their 11th payout in a row.

Rovers have a 100% Home record for Over 2.5 Goals with the score-lines at the Memorial Stadium being (most recent first): 2-1, 3-1, 2-3, 2-1, 3-1, 1-4.

Oxford are on a 7-game Over 2.5 Goals streak themselves, with a 3-0 Home win last week coming on the back of a 4-1 Away win and 3-0 Away defeat.

Rovers have yet to keep a Clean Sheet in 6 Home games, and Oxford have kept just one Clean Sheet in 6 on the road.

This isn’t the biggest price we’ve got this weekend but the stats are very strong indeed.

Plymouth v Shrewsbury

League One, Sat 3pm

• Plymouth have lost their last 5 Home games

We don’t often venture into the Match Result market, but the Away Win price looks decent value here...

This game is bottom v top in League One, and odds-against prices for Shrewsbury are worthy of our attention.

As we reported in Monday’s Stats Review email, The Shrews are the only team in the Football League with an unbeaten record (W9 D3 L0).

They’ve won 3 of their last 4 Away games and travel to struggling Plymouth this weekend...

Plymouth have lost 4 in a row, 8 of their last 9 – and each of their last 5 at Home Park. That’s dreadful form and the league leaders catch the eye at Evens+ (2.00+).

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review, followed by your Champions League Picks & Analysis on Tuesday.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues