Weekend Picks & Analysis - Chelsea best value on the Corners...

Friday 22nd September 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Old Firm derby – Cards & Booking Points update...
• Chelsea best value on the Corners...
• Going for Goals at Rovers and Rotherham...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Old Firm derby – Cards & Booking Points update...

In Wednesday’s Spotlight email we looked at the disciplinary history between Glasgow rivals Rangers and Celtic...

Ahead of this weekend’s first Old Firm derby of the season (Sat 12pm – Sky Sports), a handful of bookies now have their prices up for the Total Cards and Total Booking Points markets.

It’s still the same case as on Wednesday, with first William Hill and now Stan James setting their Booking Points line at Over 65 Points, at an odds-on price of just 8/13 (1.62)...

Skybet word that bet slightly differently and offer a better price, with 70+ pts at 10/11 (1.91) – but for any of those to win, you’d need one Yellow Card (10 pts) more than what our last-20-league meetings stats showed to be the Old Firm match average, of 61.75 pts.

Over 5.5 Cards at 888 Sport, Unibet and NetBet does tick the box in terms of that match average, but still doesn’t appeal much at odds-on.

• If you are planning on card-counting and hoping to watch a feisty encounter, take heart from the fact that tomorrow’s referee Craig Thomson has shown a total of 6 Red Cards in his last 5 games in Scotland – including 2 at Dunfermline in the Championship last weekend

For me, the value lies elsewhere this weekend...

Chelsea best value on the Corners...

Stoke v Chelsea

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Chelsea -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in their last 4 league games

We had a winner on Man Utd -2 Corner Handicap in Stoke’s last Home game, and the same Handicap at a similar price appeals for Chelsea this weekend...

The Blues travel to the Bet365 Stadium having landed Most Corners, -1 Corner Handicap and -2 Corner Handicap bets in each of their last 5 games in all competitions. That run includes a 9-2 corners win in their 2-1 victory at Leicester in their last Premier League Away game, a fortnight ago.

As we highlighted a couple of weeks back, Stoke have a record of putting up a good fight against the ‘big boys’ – while being soundly beaten when it comes to the match corners...

So far this season Stoke have had a tough Home schedule, facing Arsenal, Man Utd and now reigning champions Chelsea in their first 3 games at the Bet365 Stadium. The scores have been:

Stoke 1 Arsenal 0
Corners = 2-9

Stoke 2 Man Utd 2
Corners = 5-11

As we said before that Man Utd game, Stoke also had a couple of corner/ match combinations like that at Home against Top 5 teams last season...

Notably an 11-5 corners defeat when holding Chelsea at 1-1 until the 87th minute, and also an 8-5 corners loss against Liverpool having led by 1 goal to nil from before half time until the 70th minute.

Chelsea have beaten a -2 Corner Handicap (winning 3+ corners more than Stoke) in each of the last 5 league meetings between these sides. The early 2017/18 form says they are well-rated to do so again.

And that Stoke match/ corners pattern mentioned above suggests backing Chelsea -2 Corner Handicap at Evens+ (2.00+) is a better value bet than backing them for the Away Win at 4/6 (1.67).

Also in the stats this weekend, two games in League One match-up well in the Total Goals market – with a decent price available in both cases...

Going for Goals at Rovers and Rotherham...

Bristol Rovers v Blackpool

League One, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Bristol Rovers’ last 7 league games

There have been goals galore at the Memorial Stadium this season...

Bristol Rovers have played 4 Home league games and one in the cup, with the score-lines being (most recent first): 2-3, 2-1, 3-1, 1-4 and 4-1.

Overall, 7 of Rover’s 8 league games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals (88%), putting them top of the League One ‘League Stats’ rankings on our site for that bet.

As we saw last week with their 3-1 Home win v Oxford, Blackpool have been banging in the goals – they’ve scored 6 in their last 2 league games and conceded in both games, too.

Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of Blackpool’s 4 Away games so far.

This looks a good match-up for another ‘Over’ game, and unlike some fixtures with strong stats at both ends, the bookies haven’t priced us out it.

Rotherham v Oldham

League One, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Oldham’s last 5 league games

Oldham have lost 6 of their 8 games so far and sit bottom of League One. Over 2.5 Goals bets have also paid out in 6 of their 8 games, and that option is available at a better price than the Rotherham Home Win this weekend...

Rotherham have won 3 out of 4 at Home and are 8/13 (1.62) for the 3 points here. However the Goals stats appeal most to me – Rotherham’s 2 Home games in September have seen them win 5-1 and 3-2.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 3 of Rotherham’s 4 Home games and in all 4 of Oldham’s Away games.

Oldham are ranked 2nd in League One overall for this bet (75% strike-rate). They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their 4 games this month.

Rotherham ended last season ranked 2nd in the Championship for Over 2.5 Goals; now relegated to League One, that ‘high goals’ trend looks to be continuing with the Millers currently the top scoring side at Home in the division with 13 goals scored in 4 games.

This game looks a ripe contender for another Over 2.5 Goals result, and the price is better than I would have expected.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review email, and a look ahead to next week’s busy fixture list – including Match-day 2 in the Champions League.

Enjoy the football...

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Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues