Picks & Analysis - including Man Utd v Arsenal tonight...
Wednesday 5th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Premier League games tonight...
- Coming up this weekend...
The midweek action continues...
We had two out of three winning picks last night.
Bournemouth & Huddersfield hit Over 2.5 Goals before they even got to half time (2-1). Over 2.5 Goals has now paid out in 12 of Bournemouth’s last 13 games in all competitions.
West Ham comfortably made it 4 Home games in a row for the -2 Corner Handicap, racking up a handsome 10-4 corners score in a 3-1 win over Cardiff.
And had Man City not conceded an 85th minute goal at Watford, they would have made it the full house for us by covering the -1 Match Handicap (final score: Watford 1 Man City 2). City have now won 7 league games in a row.
The Premier League midweek programme continues this evening with 6 more games...
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities…
Man Utd v Arsenal
Premier League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Man Utd 29/20 (2.45), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Arsenal 19/10 (2.90)
We looked at the Both Teams to Score stats for tonight’s big TV game in yesterday’s ATL Extra email. Today it’s the Corners stats that get the attention...
Man Utd have won the Most Corners in each of their last 5 Premier League Home games, in 5 out of 6 at Old Trafford in the league overall – and in 71% in the Premier League in total this season (10 out of 14 games). They are 2nd only to league leaders Man City in this stats department.
Arsenal have won the Most Corners in just 2 of 6 Premier League Away games. The Gunners have been out-cornered in 3 of their last 4 on the road, and in 4 out of 6 for the season.
At Home, Man Utd are averaging 2.7 corners per game more than opponents. United have won the Most Corners in 3 of 4 meetings v Arsenal in the last two seasons.
- Most Corners – Man Utd @ 77/100 (1.77) with Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 3/4 (1.75) Boylesports, Betway, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, Skybet, 7/10 (1.70) BetVictor
Note: some bookies call this market the Corners Match Bet.
Everton v Newcastle
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Everton 8/15 (1.53), Draw 16/5 (4.20), Newcastle 13/2 (7.50)
A similar situation to last night’s West Ham v Cardiff game here, with the Home team boasting strong Most Corners form – and the Away side one of the lowest corner-winners in the Premier League...
Everton are ranked joint-3rd for Most Corners bets. The Goodison Park stats catch the eye, where the Toffees have come out top on the corner count in 6 out of 7 games (86%).
Those Home numbers are made up of 6 payouts in a row. Tallies of 7-3 v Cardiff, 10-5 v Palace and 12-1 v Fulham have been more than big enough to land -2 Corner Handicap bets in 3 of the last 4 games at Goodison.
Everton’s Home figure of 6.4 Corners For per game is higher than the Premier League average (5.6).
In comparison, Newcastle have won the Most Corners in just one of their last 5 games – and in none of 6 Away games so far. Only Burnley and Cardiff have lower overall Most Corners strike-rates than Newcastle’s figure of 21% (3 in 14 games) and a lower average Corners For per Away game than the Magpies’ 3.8.
A -2 Corner Handicap on the Home team has paid out in 4 of Newcastle’s last 5 Away games.
- Everton -2 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 41/50 (1.82) 888 Sport, Unibet, 3/4 (1.75) Betway
Also available: Everton -2.5 Corner Handicap @ 81/100 (1.81) with Marathonbet, 7/10 (1.70) Bet365, William Hill.
Burnley v Liverpool
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Burnley 12/1 (13.00), Draw 19/4 (5.75), Liverpool 3/10 (1.30)
Another good match-up on the Corners stats here, this time for the Total Corners...
Liverpool are joint-2nd in the division for Under 10.5 Corners with a 79% overall record (11 out of 14 games).
The Reds are on a noteworthy run for this bet with 10 of their last 11 league games paying out on Under 10.5 Corners. Five of Liverpool’s 7 Away games have gone Under this line (71%).
Burnley’s Home form shows 4 out of 6 games at Turf Moor with 10 or less corners (67%), with an average of 9.0 Total Corners per game.
- Under 11 Corners @ @ 4/6 (1.67) with Skybet, 8/15 (1.53) Bet365, 20/39 (1.51) NetBet, 10Bet, 1/2 (1.50) Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power. Under 10.5 Corners @ 3/5 (1.60) Boylesports, Marathonbet, 1/2 (1.50) 888 Sport, Unibet
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Man Utd v Arsenal:
- Most Corners – Man Utd @ 77/100 (1.77) with Marathonbet
Everton v Newcastle:
- Everton -2 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet
Burnley v Liverpool:
- Under 11 Corners @ 4/6 (1.67) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Friday with picks, analysis and standout stats for the weekend games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
