Picks & Analysis - including Liverpool v Palace...
Friday 18th January 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Liverpool v Crystal Palace…
- Middlesbrough v Millwall…
- Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion…
Stats Picks for the weekend…
The weekend is here. There’s a full programme of Premier League & Football League games…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Liverpool 1/5 (1.20), Draw 13/2 (7.50), Palace 16/1 (17.00)
In Monday’s Stats Review we noted that Liverpool are the best-behaved team in the Premier League.
The league leaders are just 1/5 (1.20) at best to make it 10 Home Wins out of 11. The Cards & Bookings stats point out an alternative option at a more worthwhile price…
Liverpool have received the Most Cards or Most Booking Points in just one of 10 league games at Anfield. The League Stats on our site show the Reds are the lowest-ranked team in the division for that bet.
And our Head-2-Head comparison shows Liverpool are averaging less than one Yellow Card per Home game (0.8), with Palace averaging 2.2 Cards per game on the road.
Palace have landed Most Cards and Most Booking Points bets in 7 of their 11 Away games – the joint-highest Away record in the Premier League.
- Most Booking Points – Crystal Palace @ 4/5 (1.80) with Skybet, 8/11 (1.73) William Hill, 4/6 (1.67) Boylesports
Also available: Palace -0.5 HC (Handicap) Total Bookings @ 5/6 (1.83) with NetBet, 10Bet. Most Cards – Palace @ 8/13 (1.62) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Palace 0 Alternative Card Handicap @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365.
Middlesbrough v Millwall
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Middlesbrough 17/20 (1.85), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Millwall 4/1 (5.00)
This is 5th v 20th in the Championship table and the Home Win is odds-on. But all the teams above Middlesbrough have won more Home games than them (6 from 13), and Millwall have won 3 of their last 4.
The standout stat is Under 2.5 Goals…
Middlesbrough are No.1 in the division for this bet, including 11 payouts from their last 12 games at the Riverside. You won’t see a stronger stat in that department in this league.
Millwall have been posting plenty of low goals results too, with Under 2.5 Goals paying out in 8 of their last 10 games – with 3 of their last 5 seeing a 1-0 Correct Score.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/5 (1.60) with Marathonbet, 4/7 (1.57) in general
Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Doncaster 6/4 (2.50), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Burton 15/8 (2.88)
The bookies can barely split these two sides in the Match Result betting. The Over 2.5 Goals market is pretty much 50-50, too – but the stats say goals are on the cards…
This is 2nd v 3rd on our League One standings for Over 2.5 Goals bets.
Doncaster are on an 8-game run in all comps for Over 2.5 Goals (7 in a row in the league). And they have the division’s top scorer John Marquis, who has found the net in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
Burton are 3rd in the table for Over 2.5 Goals and their last 2 games have seen a 3-2 defeat and a 4-0 win.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 (1.85) with Marathonbet, 4/5 (1.80) in general
Weekend Stats Picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Liverpool v Crystal Palace:
- Most Booking Points – Crystal Palace @ 4/5 (1.80) with Skybet
Middlesbrough v Millwall:
Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion:
I’ll be back on Monday with a Stats Review, taking stock of the latest trends & results. The on Wednesday the Scottish Premiership returns from its winter break, and we’ll be looking at the standout stats for those midweek fixtures north of the border.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
