Across the Leagues Logo

Picks & Analysis - Going for Goals at Villa Park...

Friday 25th January 2019

In your Across the Leagues email today:

  • Weekend Picks & Analysis…
  • Aston Villa v Ipswich…
  • Bury v Lincoln…

Stats Picks for the weekend…

The Scottish Premiership returned on Wednesday evening and it was business as usual for the teams with the strongest Corners stats.

Hamilton remain 100% at Home (11 games from 11) for Under 10.5 Corners. There were just 6 Total Corners in their 0-3 defeat v Aberdeen.

Celtic stay in top spot for Most Corners payouts (85%). They won the corner count 8-2 in their 4-0 win over St Mirren, enough to cover Corner Handicaps up to -5.

As I mentioned on Wednesday, getting the right market or a fair price can be a problem for some of these high-performing Scottish trends. There’s another example of that this weekend:

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock is one of the strongest match-ups that it’s possible to get. Twelve of Aberdeen’s last 13 games and 11 Killie games in a row have gone Under 10.5 Corners…

However, as I write only Skybet have that Under 10.5 Corners option for Saturday’s game, at 4/7 (1.57). Elsewhere, William Hill and BetVictor ask you to bet a bit lower at Under 10 or Under 9 Corners. The season averages are 7.7 Total Corners per Aberdeen Home game and 9.7 per Kilmarnock Away game.

This weekend the FA Cup 4th Round takes out a chunk of fixtures in England. But we don’t have long to wait for the top-flight action – there’s a full midweek round of Premier League games starting on Tuesday.

There is still a selection of Football League fixtures for us to look at this weekend – and two games in particular get our attention today…

All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.

Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…

Aston Villa v Ipswich

Championship
Saturday, 3pm

Match odds: Villa 1/2 (1.50), Draw 11/5 (3.20), Ipswich 6/1 (7.00)

Aston Villa are the second-highest Home scorers in the Championship, but also have the worst Home defensive record. Games at Villa Park are averaging a high 4.2 Total Goals per game.

Bottom of the league Ipswich have conceded more goals on the road than anyone, with 29 goals conceded in 14 Away games.

Villa are ranked No.1 in our Championship standings for Over 2.5 Goals. That bet has paid out in 6 league games in a row at Villa Park with some end-to-end scores: 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-2, 5-5, 4-2. Championship top scorer Tammy Abraham scored in each of those six games.

Ipswich have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 13 Away games.

  • Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook

Bury v Lincoln

League Two
Saturday, 5.30pm – Sky Sports

Match odds: Bury 23/20 (2.15), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Lincoln 5/2 (3.50)

This is a big game in League Two with the top two sides facing each other, and it’s live on Sky Sports…

Bury are 2nd in the league table, but in 1st place when it comes to Most Corners bets. The Home stats are the key here with Bury Most Corners bets paying out in 12 out of 14 games so far (86%).

They’ve landed the -1 Corner Handicap (winning 2+ corners more than opponents) in 71% of Home games, including 9 of the last 10. For the season, Bury are averaging 4.1 corners per Home game more than opponents.

In comparison, league leaders Lincoln have been out-cornered in 6 of their last 7 games overall, and in 4 of their last 5 Away.

With this game on TV we get a decent range of Corner markets for a lower-league game. Firms like Paddy Power and 888 Sport might get in on the action nearer to kick off and in-play, too.

  • Bury -1 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill. Bury -1.5 Asian Handicap Corners @ 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) NetBet, 10Bet

Weekend Stats Picks…

In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:

Aston Villa v Ipswich:

  • Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365

Bury v Lincoln:

  • Bury -1 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Skybet

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a stats update – and the top match-ups & prices for the midweek Premier League games.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this email. All prices correct at time of sending to subscribers.

Gambling is high risk and Oxfordshire Press Ltd and its writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred.

Never bet with money you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly, for more information and advice visit the gambleaware website at: www.begambleaware.org.

Copyright © Oxfordshire Press Ltd, 2019.