A 40/1 prospect in the Champions League...
Friday 7th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Champions League tonight…
- Name the Finalists at 40/1…
- Player picks for Man City v Real Madrid…
A 40/1 prospect in the Champions League…
There were a handful of players in our First Goalscorer notebook yesterday.
The shortest price of them was the only one that delivered. Raul Jimenez got the only goal of the game for Wolves, scoring from the penalty spot. The in-form Mexican was 7/2 (4.5).
Elsewhere in Thursday evening’s Europa League ties, I singled out two men at greater odds. Andre Silva at 11/2 (6.5) and Alfredo Morelos at 15/2 (8.5). Both drew a blank, as did their teams. With Frankurt losing 1-0 at Basel, and the same score-line for Rangers at Bayer Leverkusen.
More losers than winners…
The key with our Scorer picks – and all our bets, for that matter – is price.
The figures from recent weeks illustrate the big picture. We’ll have more losers than winners. That’s a fact. But when the good days come along, they more than outweigh the bad ones…
Since the ‘merger’ at the start of July, where my Football Angles analysis service combined with our Across the Leagues stats website. We’ve had nine selections in the First Goalscorer markets – and one payout…
But that sole strike was a 14/1 Each Way First Goalscorer winner. With the returns from that solitary successful bet meaning our picks in that market in that time period are showing a 74% ROI to level stakes.
Another market where we’re doing alright recently is Player to be Booked. Since the 1st July changeover, we’re ventured into that stats area on four occasions. With two winners, for an overall 55% ROI on those bets.
- There’s a decent-looking price for us again in the Player Cards options today – see below
The long game…
As that one-in-nine First Goalscorer strike-rate suggests, following my Across the Leagues picks requires patience.
On-the-day profits are nice. But the long-term, ante post markets will prove a key source of enjoyment for us over seasons and years. Or sometimes sooner…
One current case in point is our ‘Name the Finalists’ pick in the Europa League. On Wednesday we got ‘Inter Milan & Sevilla’ in the book at standout odds of 16/1 and 14/1.
With both teams now through to next week’s quarter finals, the bookies now have that final combo at 7/1 (Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook) and 11/2 (Skybet).
A drop in price is not a winner. That doesn’t pay on its own. But we’re on a great price, now trading at less than half the odds we took.
- We’re taking a look at the Name the Finalists options in the Champions League today, too. See below
Champions League angles & advice…
Starting from Monday next week, we have the UEFA ‘Final Eight’ competitions. With the Champions League and Europa League completed over a two-week period. Cramming 14 games into 14 days, with the quarter finals, semi finals, and finals for both cups.
Before that bonanza gets underway, there are Last 16 ties still to be sorted in the flagship event, with four quarter final spots to fill.
Those Champions League fixtures this weekend are:
Friday:
Juventus v Lyon (aggregate score: 0-1)
Man City v Real Madrid (2-1)
Saturday:
Barcelona v Napoli (1-1)
Bayern Munich v Chelsea (3-0)
Here’s how the Outright Winner market currently looks at Skybet:
As you’d expect, the big boys are short enough prices at the top of the list. With Man City and Bayern Munich leading the field at 10/3 (4.33) each.
The likes of Barcelona and Juventus have work to do in this weekend’s 2nd legs. And La Liga champions Real Madrid are 25/1 because they’re 2-1 down and go to Man City needing at least two away goals this evening.
Name the Finalists at 40/1…
As with the Europa League this week, it’s the Name the Finalists market that catches my eye for an outsider prospect at a promising price.
We know the draw for the quarter finals and beyond, meaning it’s possible to map various permutations for the line-up in the final in Portugal come August 23rd.
In short, the way the draw has come out, only one team can make the final out of Man City, Real Madrid, Juventus, Barcelona and Bayern Munich (among others in that section of the draw). There are plenty of big boys and usual suspects to consider there.
Juventus & Ronaldo…
With Juventus a goal down on aggregate, but favourites to beat Lyon in Turin this evening. There’s a case to be made for getting behind the reigning nine-time Italian league champions here. If they get through tonight, then Juve’s price will be trimmed across all related Outright markets.
The Serie A giants have certainly got Champions League pedigree. Making the quarter finals or better in four of the last five seasons – and reaching the final twice in that period.
Juve now have the added ingredient of all-time Champions League top scorer, Cristiano Ronaldo. He was rested for the final Serie A game of the campaign, after Juventus wrapped up the league title with two games to spare. The bookies aren’t messing about with Ronnie tonight. He’s odds-on to score Anytime, at 8/11 (1.73). And 5/2 (3.5) at best to score First.
With those other big-name teams in this side of the draw, rather than take 14/1 for Juventus in the Outright Winner market, I like the fancy prices for Juve to make the final alongside Atletico Madrid…
Atletico & Simeone…
Atletico, let’s not forget, knocked out the holders Liverpool this season. With Diego Simeone’s team’s tactical strength and work-rate on show once again over the two legs against the Premier League runaway winners.
If we’re talking pedigree, then Atletico have finished in the top three in Spain’s La Liga in each of the last eight seasons. And in that eight-year spell, they’ve reached the Champions League quarter finals or better on five occasions, including two finals.
Simeone’s team are undoubtedly in the ‘softer’ half of this Last Eight knockout draw. In next Thursday’s quarter final, Atletico Madrid are 4/6 (1.67) favourites To Qualify against RB Leipzig. The German newcomers are without top scorer Timo Werner, who is bound for Chelsea. If Atleti get past Leipzig, then Atalanta or PSG will await in the semi finals.
Odds of 8/1 for the Spanish side to lift the cup don’t look too shiny to me. But combined with Juventus in the Name the Finalists betting, 40/1 & 33/1 prices for Juventus & Atletico Madrid have an eye-catching glint to them.
It’s not the most fashionable of picks. And it could come undone at the very first hurdle if Juve don’t get through against Lyon this evening. But if Ronaldo and co do progress, then this price could end up serving us well. We’ll take the outsider route.
Player picks for tonight…
Last but not least, in tonight’s glitzy clash between Man City and Real Madrid, there are two player picks that stand out for us.
I’ll keep these ones simple. Kevin De Bruyne has been sensational this season. He’s in the Ronaldo and Lionel Messi class these days, in my opinion. The Belgian playmaker is lethal from distance, and from free kicks, and can carve out his own chances in the box. He takes penalties, too, scoring three of them since the restart in June.
Overall, De Bruyne has landed Anytime Scorer bets in five out of 11 games in all competitions since play resumed.
Pre-lockdown, De Bruyne was also on the scoresheet from the spot in the 1st leg win at Real Madrid. Right now, this guy can’t be ignored. With so many star names to choose from in this fixture, odds of 2/1+ to score Anytime appeal ahead of the more speculative First Scorer option (top price 7/1).
For Madrid, Luka Modric to be Booked looks a good price at 7/2 (4.5)…
Real Madrid captain and serial card collector Sergio Ramos is suspended for this one. The Team Stats on our website show that the other two most-booked players in La Liga for Madrid this season were Casemiro (12 league yellows) and Daniel Carvajal (11 yellows). Those two are the favourites in the To be Booked betting today, at around 6/4 (2.5) each.
Modric is next on the Madrid season-long stats, with eight bookings in the league. As well as a yellow in the 1st leg against Man City…
With no Ramos holding things together at the back here, Modric might have his work cut out helping protect the Madrid back line from the likes of De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, to name just two of City’s ball-carrying threats.
The price looks good for the Croatian midfielder here. Modric has been carded in four of his last seven games.
Today’s picks
Champions League 2019/20
Man City v Real Madrid
8pm, BT Sport
- Anytime Scorer: Kevin De Bruyne @ 23/10 (3.3) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/5 (3.2) Sportingbet, Bwin, 21/10 (3.1) Skybet, BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Boylesports
- Player to be Booked: Luka Modric @ 7/2 (4.5) with Bet365, Boylesports, 10/3 (4.33) BetVictor, VBet, 16/5 (4.2) Skybet, William Hill
I’ll be back on Monday with the first of our daily emails looking at the Europa League quarter finals. Then we’ll be doing the same again with the next Champions League knockout games. Lots to look forward to…
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
