Europa League Quarter Finals - Day One picks & analysis...
Monday 10th August 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Europa League quarter finals tonight…
- Man Utd v Copenhagen…
- Inter Milan v Bayer Leverkusen…
Europa League Quarter Finals – Day One picks & analysis…
Juventus don’t mess around, do they?
Within hours of being knocked out of the Champions League on Friday night, the Italian champions sacked manager Maurizio Sarri. Replacing him with ex-player Andrea Pirlo, who has never managed a team before.
With Pirlo only last month instated as a youth team coach at Juve, you’d almost think that first-team switch had been rushed through…
Either way, Juventus are out of the Champions League for this season. Despite two goals from Cristiano Ronaldo, they went out 2-2 on aggregate v Lyon, losing on away goals.
That result put pay to our speculative 40/1 ‘Name the Finalists’ pick. (The other half of that selection, Atletico Madrid, are in the quarter finals later this week. They’ve had two unnamed squad members test positive for coronavirus, though.)
Friday night wasn’t all bad for us. With Luka Modric getting the only yellow card of the game in Real Madrd’s 2-1 defeat at Man City. Odds of 7/2 (4.5) in the Player to be Booked market made it a satisfactory evening overall.
In fact, things went very well for Across the Leagues member John B:
“Really enjoyed the City match on Friday. Despite de Bruyne not scoring. Had a in-play bet from bet365 which I put on city 2-1 at 7/1 so £70 on that + Modric getting the only card of the night, made it a profitable night … also placed one of the bets with Bet Victor, which earned me a free £10 bet for the following night which I put on Bayern/Barcelona double, so felt like I been paid a tip after Friday’s winnings.”
Good work, John.
The Final Eight…
We’ll be returning our attention to the Champions League when the quarter finals start on Wednesday evening.
Those matches are part of the UEFA ‘Final Eight’ fixtures. This knockout event sees the Europa League & Champions League 2019/20 competitions concluded with 14 games in 14 days. Consisting of two lots of quarter finals, semi finals and finals.
The games are all being held at neutral venues. Germany are hosting the Europa League. Portugal has the Champions League. Each tie will be settled on the night, in a one-off game, with extra time & penalties if needed. Every match is live on BT Sport.
I’ll be providing you with match-day analysis and previews over the course of the next fortnight. Starting with tonight’s first two quarter finals in the Europa League. Kick off is at 8pm…
Inter Milan v Bayer Leverkusen
We have an interest in Inter Milan here. This season’s Serie A runner-up form one half of our 16/1 or 14/1 ‘Name the Finalists’ pick in the Europa League. With our other team Sevilla also through to the last eight and playing Wolves on Tuesday, let’s see if Inter can keep our bet alive…
The bookies make the Italian side 3/5 (1.6) favourites To Qualify tonight. Skybet’s Name the Finalists market now has ‘Inter Milan & Sevilla’ as a 7/1 shot.
Elsewhere it’s as you might expect in the markets, with Inter Milan striker Romelu Lukaku the 4/1 (5.0) favourite to open the scoring for what would be the second game running. And the big Belgian at 11/8 (2.38) at best to score Anytime, with BetVictor.
Inter also have the favourite in the Player to be Booked betting. Nicolo Barella was Inter’s most-booked player in the league this season, with 11 yellows. He’s got three cards in his last five appearances in all competitions.
However, the price is nothing to get excited about. Whereas we got 7/2 (4.5) for Modric last Friday, Barella is just 6/4 (2.5) to go in the referee’s book here.
Our goal in this game: get Inter through to the semi finals, to keep our 16/1 Name the Finalists pick running.
Man Utd v Copenhagen
Man Utd are the big favourites of the day. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side are just 1/12 (1.08) To Qualify for the semi finals. The Red Devils are also short odds-on to get the job done in normal time, at 2/9 (1.22) to win in 90 minutes.
In the Europa League Outright Winner betting, Man Utd are 15/8 (2.88) favourites for the trophy. Followed by Inter Milan at 10/3 (4.33) and Sevilla at 11/2 (6.5).
United dominate most of the markets for this evening’s match against Copenhagen…
For example, the Premier League side are 1/4 (1.25) to win the Most Corners. And 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365 to cover a -3 Corner Handicap. Something they’ve managed to do in four out of 12 games in all comps since the restart in June, against Sheff Utd, Norwich, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
Midfielder Fred is in with the frontrunners in the Player to be Booked betting, at around 13/8 (2.63). The Man Utd man has received 12 yellows in 46 appearances in a Man Utd shirt this season.
In the First Goalscorer market, the top 12 in the betting are all Man Utd players…
However, despite similar dominance in the Scorer lists, United conceded first when big favourites at home to LASK Linz last week, before coming back to win. And although United were already 5-0 up on aggregate going into that tie and wouldn’t have been going at full steam, that Linz goal was still a reminder that you can never take a clean sheet for granted.
Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Odion Ighalo, Bruno Fernandes and teenager Mason Greenwood are all odds-on in general in the Anytime Scorer lists today.
In a favourite-heavy situation like this, but with the element of jeopardy thanks to the scrapping of the two-leg format and any home advantage, it could pay to focus on a big-price contender for the underdogs…
Get Wind of a winner at 14/1…
Jonas Wind is the player on my radar for the Danish side.
A knee injury had kept him out of the Copenhagen side since last August. But the 21-year-old returned to action after lockdown, making two appearances from the bench in June & July. Before starting the next two games. Then playing the full 90 mins on July 12th.
And after that, with match fitness growing, Jonas started a noteworthy run of scoring form…
- Wind has since scored 4 times in 4 games in the last three weeks. Landing 3 x Anytime Scorer bets and 2 x First Goalscorer payouts, and netting twice from the penalty spot
He got two goals in the Europa League against Istanbul Basaksehir last Wednesday.
Overall, the young Denmark forward has 18 goals in 33 games for Copenhagen since making his debut in 2018. That’s an impressive strike-rate.
If the underdogs are to get on the scoresheet tonight, Jonas Wind looks the man most likely for Copenhagen.
Wind is a top price 14/1 to score First, and 5/1 to score Anytime. At those odds, both options appeal…
Today’s picks
Europa League
Man Utd v Copenhagen
8pm, BT Sport
- First Goalscorer: Jonas Wind @ 14/1 (15.0) with Bet365, Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet, 12/1 (13.0) and 11/1 (12.0) in general
- Anytime Scorer: Jonas Wind @ 5/1 (6.0) with Betway, 24/5 (5.8) 888 Sport, Unibet, 9/2 (5.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1 (5.0) Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor
I’ll be back tomorrow with previews for Tuesday night’s two Europa League quarter finals. We’ll be looking at Shakhtar Donetsk v Basel, and Wolves v Sevilla.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
