Stats Picks & Analysis - including 3 Scorer selections...
Friday 12th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Preview – La Liga & Bundesliga…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Including 3 Scorer selections…
Weekend Preview - La Liga & Bundesliga…
We took an aggressive approach to the Cards markets for the Seville derby last night.
Opting for two players in the First Card betting at 10/1+ each, rather than taking 11/10 (2.10) for Over 7.5 Cards…
Avoiding that high Total Cards line proved a wise move, as there were just 2 Yellows (20 Booking Points) in the game.
One of our speculative First Card picks played, and scored a goal, too. Fernando didn’t go in the referee’s book for any foul play, though. Our other player pick was Andres Guardado, who sat out on the whole game on the bench (bet void).
La Liga Scorers…
Yesterday’s big match preview and this week’s La Liga research had flagged up Sevilla striker Lucas Ocampos as one to watch in the Scorer markets. He featured in yesterday’s write-up as a 2/1 (3.00) prospect for Anytime Scorer. But we talked ourselves out of it with the team news on the day suggesting he may be unwell and miss the game…
As is the way with these things, or so it feels anyway, Ocampos went on to not only start the game but of course pop up with the opening goal, as well as an assist for the second, and hit the crossbar, too….
The research led us in the right direction. We will have other chances to back Ocampos in the games to come.
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Moving onto the rest of the fixtures in this first weekend back in Spain, and we should stay on side of some of the other scorers we mentioned in our standout stats guide earlier this week – especially the first-choice frontmen at the best prices. See below.
- Head-2-Head stats for every game in La Liga and the Bundesliga this weekend, and our unique bet-specific tables including Match Result form, Goals, Cards & Bookings and Scorers, are all available on your members-only Across the Leagues website
We’re kicking off our weekend preview & picks with a focus on those La Liga Scorers, with two strikers standing out for us in Spain…
SPAIN – LA LIGA
Celta Vigo v Villarreal
Spain – La Liga
Saturday 4pm
In our La Liga prep work this week we noted the scoring exploits of Villarreal’s top scorer this season, Gerard Moreno…
Before the halt in play he’d landed Anytime Scorer payouts in 3 out of 5 games. The La Liga Scorers table on our site shows fewer than a handful of players in the league that have got a better record than Moreno’s 10 Anytime Scorer results.
The Spanish forward can be backed in the region of 2/1 to hit the ground running on his return to action this weekend. Against a Celta Vigo side that had failed to score a goal in 4 of their 7 matches before the break, Moreno is the key danger man for the visiting side...
- Anytime Scorer – Gerard Moreno @ 23/10 (3.30) with 888 Sport , Unibet, 15/8 (2.88) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 9/5 (2.80) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway
Espanyol v Alaves
Spain – La Liga
Saturday 1pm, Free Sports
Another away scorer catches the eye in this one, with the much-travelled Lucas Perez the man to follow for Alaves…
The former West Ham, Arsenal and Deportivo player (among others) is having a great season, with his 11 Anytime Scorer payouts putting him level with Lionel Messi in that bet category.
Like Moreno for Villarreal, Perez had netted in 3 out of 5 games before the league was suspended. Opponents Espanyol are bottom of the league, with just one clean sheet to their name from their last 17 attempts…
- Anytime Scorer – Lucas Perez @ 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365 , 13/5 (3.60) 888 Sport, Unibet, 2/1 (3.00) Betfred
GERMANY - BUNDESLIGA
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
Germany – Bundesliga
Saturday 5.30pm, BT Sport
We earmarked this fixture earlier this week, with the news that Bayern’s top scorer Robert Lewandowski and top assist-provider Thomas Muller will both sit this game out, each serving a one-match ban.
What’s more, Bayern can win the title this weekend…
The Home Win is odds-on at 2/5 (1.40), although 4th place Monchengladbach are no pushovers, and beat the reigning champions 2-1 in the reverse fixture.
With runaway Bundesliga top scorer Lewandowski (30 goals) missing, an angle for this game is to look for an appealing Bayern player to get on the scoresheet in his absence…
Stand-in striker Joshua Zirkzee has been automatically placed at the top of the bookies’ lists, as short as 4/6 (1.67) to score Anytime, and 4/1 (5.00) at best to score First. He’s got 3 goals from 7 league appearances this season.
Rather than jump on that bandwagon, we can take a better price in the Anytime Scorer market by looking to a starting XI regular in decent scoring form…
Serge Gnabry is an injury doubt, and that further paves the way for someone else to get in on the goals.
At odds of around 2/1, midfielder Leon Goretzka is one of the less flashy names in the Bayern team. The German has found the net in 2 of his last 4 Bundesliga games, and started all 6 Bayern matches since play resumed…
- Anytime Scorer – Leon Goretzka @ 21/10 (3.10) with Paddy Power , Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/8 (2.88) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen
Germany – Bundesliga
Sunday 5pm, BT Sport
Last but not least, we move away from the Scorers and latch onto a Win & Both Teams to Score trend at 2/1…
Four of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 5 away wins have paid out on that bet. There have been goals at both ends in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these sides, with Leverkusen a 2-1 winner earlier this season.
While Leverkusen are riding high in 5th place and aiming for a Champions League spot, Schalke have been in miserable form for quite a while now – yet to win a game since the restart, or since January for that matter.
Leverkusen are deserved favourites in the Match Result betting here, although odds of 8/15 (1.53) for the Away Win are nothing to get excited about. With just 2 clean sheets out of 10 on the road, Leverkusen to win with both teams scoring is the pick here, and at more appealing odds, too…
- Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 11/5 (3.20) with Bet365 , BetVictor, Boylesports, 2/1+ (3.00+) in general
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Celta Vigo v Villarreal
- Anytime Scorer – Gerard Moreno @ 23/10 (3.30) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/8 (2.88) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 9/5 (2.80) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway
Espanyol v Alaves
- Anytime Scorer – Lucas Perez @ 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365, 13/5 (3.60) 888 Sport, Unibet, 2/1 (3.00) Betfred
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
- Anytime Scorer – Leon Goretzka @ 21/10 (3.10) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 15/8 (2.88) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 11/5 (3.20) with Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, 2/1+ (3.00+) in general
Get ready for the Premier League…
I’ll be back next week, when we have stacks of football to look at.
Including in Spain and Germany, plus the first games back in Serie A in Italy – not to mention the long-awaited return of the Premier League & Championship in England…
Lookout for your next email on Monday.
Have a good weekend…
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
