Stats Picks for Man City & Juventus tonight...
Monday 22nd June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Man City v Burnley, 8pm…
- Bologna v Juventus, 8.45pm…
Stats Picks for Man City & Juventus tonight…
We’ve got a nice busy week coming up. With daily fixtures taking us across the Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Bundesliga & Serie A.
There’s also the League Two Playoffs, semi final 2nd Legs this evening…
Exeter are at home to Colchester and 0-1 down from the 1st Leg. The home team are 7/4 (2.75) to turn it around and qualify for the final at Wembley. While Northampton are 8/1 (9.00) to go to Cheltenham are overcome a 2-0 deficit from the 1st Leg.
Before we get into today’s games, a quick look back at some of the stats and results from the weekend…
Ings at it again…
On the first day back in the Premier League last week, we listed five ‘surprising standout stats’ from the season so far.
Southampton striker Dan Ings was in there for his goal-scoring exploits. The Saints forward was straight back into action on Friday night, scoring the opening goal in his side’s 3-0 win at relegation-bound Norwich.
- This Thursday’s game between Southampton and Arsenal will be an interesting one on the Scorer stats – matching-up the top two men on the Premier League Anytime Scorer table on our website, Ings and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Scorers to keep on the list…
Our own Scorer picks came up dry at the weekend. Barcelona were held to a 0-0 at Sevilla. Lionel Messi played the full match, as he has in all three of Barca’s games since the restart, despite the new post-lockdown rule where teams can make five substitutions instead of the usual three.
- With those goal times we looked at on Friday in mind, Messi remains a player to keep in mind for the less-common Last Goalscorer market. Six of Messi’s last 10 scoring appearances have seen him find the net in the last 10 minutes of the game
In Germany, our First Goalscorer selection Rouwen Hennings scored in the 25th minute for Dusseldorf, but that market had already been settled by another player we’ve tracked in recent weeks in the Bundesliga, with Florian Niederlechner opening the scoring for Augsburg on 10 mins.
As the tale suggests, our Scorer picks are well worth keeping in mind for repeat business…
For example, Wolfsburg’s No.1 striker Wout Weghorst drew a blank when featured in our write-up for the game at Borussia Monchengladbach last week. But he popped back up with a brace at Schalke at the weekend, including the first goal of the game.
Away-day corners trends continue…
The Premier League corners stats delivered on Saturday, with two strong trends continuing on the road:
- Leicester won the Most Corners (2-7) in a 1-1 draw at Watford. The Foxes have now won the Most Corners in 5 of their last 6 Premier League away games, and in 11 out of 15 for the season (73% away record)
- Wolves won 2-0 at West Ham, and won the Most Corners, too (5-7). Wolves are now up to 80% for the season for away corners victories – and this was their 11th straight Most Corners result on their travels
We’ve got another Corners pick for an away team this evening – see below.
Atalanta goal machine shows no sign of slowing down…
Our speculative 35/1 weekend treble in the Win & Both Teams to Score markets didn’t come in. (At those cumulative odds, just one or two winning days for those trebles would make it all more than worthwhile). The standout team in those stats delivered, though…
We noted that Atalanta are the top-scoring side in Serie A this season, and the Italian’s goal-fest continued with a 4-1 win over Sassuolo on Sunday evening. Atalanta’s last 10 games in all competitions have now sailed Over 2.5 Goals.
- Keep Atalanta in mind if you fancy trying to land a massive Correct Score. They’ve won 7 of their last 8 games in all comps, with some crazy score-lines such as: 4-1, 3-4, 2-7 (seven), 4-1 and 0-7 (seven)
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
Onto this evening’s fixtures now, and the stats lead us to a couple of prices in the Premier League and Serie A…
Man City v Burnley
Premier League
8pm, Sky Sports
It’s take-your-pick here – if you don’t mind extremely short odds, that is…
Man City are just 1/7 (1.14) to win, and 2/5 (1.40) to win by more than one goal (-1 Match Handicap).
Considering City have won 8 of their last 10 home Premier League games, and beaten Burnley 4-1 twice and 5-0 twice across their last 6 meetings in all comps, you can see why the bookies are taking no chances on Pep Guardiola’s side.
The odds-on prices keep coming in other departments, too. Man City are ranked No.1 on our site for Most Corners this season, with a 93% home league record. That option is 1/20 (1.05) at best today.
In the Corner Handicap market, for Even Money (2.00), the bookies are asking for City to win at least 7 corners more than Burnley (-6 Corner Handicap).
The Etihad club’s three top scorers are odds-on in the Anytime Scorer market. With Sergio Aguero at 4/9 (1.44), Gabriel Jesus at 4/6 (1.67) and Raheem Sterling at 19/20 (1.95).
For a nicer price, Kevin De Bruyne is the player for us at around 9/5 (2.80). The super-talented Belgian has scored in 3 of his last 6 games. And with free kicks, penalties and long-range screamers all in his wheelhouse, De Bruyne is a man worth following here, at bigger odds than City’s out-and-out strikers.
STATS PICK:
- Anytime Scorer – Kevin De Bruyne @ 37/20 (2.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 9/5 (2.80) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
Bologna v Juventus
Italy – Serie A
8.45pm, Premier Sports
League leaders and reigning champions Juventus had won 8 out of 10 in Serie A before the halt in play. Bologna are 10th, and had just one win in 5 at home before the break.
Juve are odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) for the Away Win, and star man Cristiano Ronaldo is 7/10 (1.70) to score Anytime.
The Most Corners price gets our attention here. Juventus have landed this bet in each of their 10 league meetings with Bologna.
Bologna have won the Most Corners in just one of their 4 home meetings with current Top 6 sides this season. Juve have landed this bet in 6 of their last 7 Serie A games.
The bookies make it 50-50 for the Most Corners tonight, but with home advantage seemingly erased in empty stadiums right now, the away team are the standout pick here.
STATS PICK:
- Most Corners – Juventus @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
GOAT betting…
Here's a new market to keep an eye on, too. Skybet’s ‘G.O.A.T’ specials offer up a price for a player to get one or more of each of these in a game:
Goal
Offside
Assist
Tackle
For Bologna v Juventus, Cristiano Ronaldo is 18/1. Ronaldo is more used to ‘GOAT’ standing for ‘Greatest of All Time.’
For Man City v Burnley, Aguero and Sterling are 12/1 each for that option, and De Bruyne is 20/1. Burnley’s Chris Wood is 100/1.
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Man City v Burnley
- Anytime Scorer – Kevin De Bruyne @ 37/20 (2.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 9/5 (2.80) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
Bologna v Juventus
- Most Corners – Juventus @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Note: some bookies call this the ‘Corners Match Bet’ or ‘Full Time Corners Win’
I’ll be back tomorrow with more match previews, stats & analysis for you.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
