Weekend Preview - including Barcelona at 3/1...
Friday 26th June 2020
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Preview…
- Stats Picks & Analysis…
- Including Barcelona at 3/1…
Weekend Preview…
We saw the benefits of going after our Scorer selections in consecutive games last night. Kevin De Bruyne landed the Anytime Scorer odds for us this time, and at a standout price of 3/1, too.
De Bruyne’s 3rd goal in 5 games for Man City wasn’t enough to prevent Liverpool being confirmed Premier League champions, though. Final score last night: Chelsea 2 Man City 1.
That was a fantastic free kick that De Bruyne scored yesterday. On Sunday evening, Man City go to Newcastle for their FA Cup quarter final. The Belgian playmaker is 5/1 with Skybet ‘To Score from Outside the Box.’
There are two Premier League games this weekend, Aston Villa v Wolves on Saturday and Watford v Southampton on Sunday.
Elsewhere in the European leagues, the top-flight action continues in Spain and Italy. And in Germany, it’s the last day of the season on Saturday.
Goals patterns…
In case you missed today’s ATL Extra email, here are some standout goals trends from those leagues…
It seems the drink breaks, extra substitutions and lack of match sharpness are slowing things down in England and Spain…
- England – Premier League: since the restart, Both Teams to Score has paid out in just 6 of the 22 games (27%)
- Spain – La Liga: 9 out of 10 La Liga games went Under 2.5 Goals this week. Including 6 x 1-0 score-lines
But in Germany, it’s a different story, with plenty of reason to expect some high scores this Saturday afternoon…
- Since 2010, the final round of the Bundesliga season has averaged 7 out of 9 games going Over 2.5 Goals, and the same ratio for Both Teams to Score
- The final day in Germany last season averaged 4.5 goals per game, including 3 x 5-1 score-lines, and even an 8-1! (Eight-one)
You can view our Head-2-Heads and League & Team Stats covering all of this weekend’s games in the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website:
www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk
STATS PICKS & ANALYSIS
On to our weekend betting now. And the stats take us to 4 games in particular…
Aston Villa v Wolves
Premier League
Sat 12.30pm, BT Sport
This Midlands derby features two teams with very different jobs on their hands…
Villa are in deep in the relegation battle, 4/11 (1.36) to go down, and 5/2 (3.50) to stay up. Wolves are chasing a Champions League spot, and are a top price 11/2 (6.50) for a Top 4 finish.
Since the restart, Villa are yet to win, with 2 draws and a defeat. Wolves have won 2 out of 2, and are yet to concede a goal. Wolves are odds-on for the Away Win, at 4/5 (1.80) at best.
Elsewhere in the markets, the men in gold are around 1/2 (1.50) to keep up their impressive Most Corners streak. Wolves have landed that bet in 21 of their last 22 games.
A note of caution before taking the short price though: Villa can hold their own on the corners front, with a 60% Most Corners record at home this season, including in 3 of their last 5 at Villa Park.
One Wolves trend we do want to follow is top scorer Raul Jimenez to strike again…
The Mexican forward has been one of the standout players of the season. His total tally of 24 goals in all competitions is more than any other Premier League player.
Jimenez has got the opener in both of Wolves’ games since the restart. He’s joint-2nd in our Anytime Scorer chart for the Premier League, with 14 payouts. Against a Villa side that are joint-bottom for Clean Sheets this season, the man of the moment should be backed to score again here.
STATS PICK:
- Anytime Scorer – Raul Jimenez @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Sportingbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, Vbet
Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Spain – La Liga
Sat 4pm
Barcelona have won 3 out of 4 since returning to action, and kept a Clean Sheet in all 4 games. With scores of 0-4, 2-0, 0-0 and 1-0.
This weekend Barca are up against Celta Vigo, who have the joint-2nd best home record in La Liga for Under 2.5 Goals (73%).
Barring a 6-0 anomaly v Alaves, Vigo’s other games this month have all gone ‘low’ on the goals, with scores of 0-1 (lost), 0-0 and 0-1 (won). Before the halt in play, Celta had played out two 0-0 draws, and a 1-0.
Barcelona are 8/13 (1.62) to win this game, and 15/8 (2.88) To Win to Nil. With the low-goals trends and recent score-lines in mind, the Barcelona to Win & Under 2.5 Goals option appeals as a 3/1 shot here. (Alternatively, for the same outcome, cover both the Barcelona 1-0 & 2-0 Correct Scores at their 7/1 top prices.)
STATS PICK:
- Barcelona to Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/1 (4.00) with Betway, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
Udinese v Atalanta
Italy – Serie A
Sun 6.30pm
This one is a case of low goals stats v high goals stats…
As we’ve spoken about already a couple of times this week, Atalanta are ranked as the top scorers in Serie A – and are good for it, too. Post-lowdown, they’ve picked right back up where they left off, with 4-1 and 3-2 wins.
In the last 8 Atalanta games in all comps, Over 2.5 Goals bets and Both Teams to Score bets have been landed each time. Sitting 4th in the league, Atalanta are on a 5-game winning run.
Opponents Udinese are 15th, and not safe yet – priced at 7/1 in the relegation market going into this weekend’s round of games.
The home team bring the low-goals form here, ranked No.1 on our site for Under 2.5 Goals bets in Serie A this season. Udinese lost 1-0 in their first game back. Overall, they’re on a 7-game run for Under 2.5 Goals results in the league.
That said, Atalanta thrashed them 7-1 in the reverse fixture in October. And last season, this one ended Udinese 1 Atalanta 3…
Duvan Zapata got a hat-trick in that 3-1 win. He was out injured for the October instalment, but since getting back to fitness, the Colombian has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 out of 7 appearances in the league.
Zapata hit 2 goals last weekend, and missed a sitter in the midweek game, too. With the Away Win priced at just 4/9 (1.44), and another Over 2.5 Goals result at 4/6 (1.67), taking a bigger price for one of the Atalanta forwards is the advice here.
STATS PICK:
- Anytime Scorer – Duvan Zapata @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, BetVictor, Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/10 (2.10) Betway, Betfred
Eintracht Frankfurt v Paderborn
Germany – Bundesliga
Sat 2.30pm
Last but not least, we return to those final-day stats in the Bundesliga…
In today’s ATL Extra email we’ve flagged up a couple of massive Correct Scores in this game, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win 5-1 at 25/1, and the 6-1 score-line at 50/1.
Noting that the biggest scores since May’s restart in the German top-flight have been 5-1 and 6-1 defeats for bottom club Paderborn…
Already relegated, they could get one last mauling on Saturday afternoon on this final trip to Frankfurt.
There were a trio of 5-1 results on the final day in the Bundesliga last season. One of those was a 5-1 defeat for 2018/19’s bottom club, Nuremberg.
Don’t be surprised to see a big score-line in this one…
In the Match Result prices, the Home Win is just 1/3 (1.33) at best. A solid-looking option is the Frankfurt -1 Match Handicap. That pays out if the home team win by more than one goal. Something that Frankfurt have done in 4 of their last 6 league victories. And a fate that Paderborn have suffered in 3 of their last 4 defeats.
STATS PICK:
- Frankfurt -1 Match Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/5 (1.80) Betfred, Sportingbet, Bwin
Stats Picks Summary
See above for full details. Today’s picks are:
Aston Villa v Wolves
- Anytime Scorer – Raul Jimenez @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Sportingbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, Vbet
Celta Vigo v Barcelona
- Barcelona to Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/1 (4.00) with Betway, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
Udinese v Atalanta
- Anytime Scorer – Duvan Zapata @ 6/5 (2.20) with Skybet, BetVictor, Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/10 (2.10) Betway, Betfred
Eintracht Frankfurt v Paderborn
- Frankfurt -1 Match Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/5 (1.80) Betfred, Sportingbet, Bwin
I’ll be back on Monday with your next stats update. Have a good weekend.
P.S
Don’t forget to enter this brilliant football competition…
Win tickets to next summer’s rearranged ‘Euro 2020’ >>
It’s free to enter, and only takes a few seconds. Get your name in the hat!
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
