Corners stats for today – and an 8/1 shot…
Wednesday 15th July 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
- Watkins, Immobile and Swansea in action today…
- Latest Champions League prices…
- Analysis & advice for tonight…
Corners stats for today – and an 8/1 shot…
In yesterday’s email we spoke about long-term betting. On that topic, we’ve got a couple of players and teams to keep an eye on this evening…
After Fulham and Aleksandar Mitrovic drew a blank in a 0-0 at West Brom last night, Brentford’s Ollie Watkins has the chance to get his nose in front in the Championship Top Goalscorer race.
A 33/1 pick in my previous Football Angles service, Watkins is joint-top of the charts as it stands, level with Mitrovic on 24 goals, with three games left. Ollie is Evens (2.0) at best in the Anytime Scorer market for tonight’s home game v Preston.
Elsewhere in the Championship, we’re looking for our 40/1 promotion outsiders Swansea to get a result at Nottingham Forest. A win would be a massive result for the Swans, and for the layout of the playoff places.
At similar Even-Money scorer odds this evening, we could really do with Ciro Immobile getting back to scoring ways for Lazio at Udinese…
Our 16/1 man from back in August is only one goal ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo in Serie A. Ronnie is 8/15 (1.53) to score again for Juventus tonight, at Sassuolo. Cristiano has scored in six out of six league games since the restart in Italy.
Champions League movers & shakers…
I’ve been keeping check of Champions League and Europa League markets. Those UEFA cup competitions will be settled in a mini-tournament style event next month. The quarter final draws were made last week.
The main talking point has been Man City, who would be ‘quite a story’ if they won the Champions League for the first time, especially after this week’s news that City now won’t be banned from Europe for the next two seasons.
Pep Guardiola’s team are around 3/1 in the Outright Winner market, the same price they were before the draw was made. If City get through their pending 2nd leg against Real Madrid, they’ll face the winner of Lyon & Juventus in the quarter finals, then potentially Barcelona or Bayern Munich in the semis.
Goals, goals, goals…
Atalanta have also been getting a bit of attention. A 6-2 win in the league last night is a decent snapshot of the Italians’ form this season: goals, and lots of them. Atalanta have won 10 of their last 11 in Serie A, moving to 2nd in the table.
Can they outscore enough opponents at Champions League level? Atalanta are in the ‘softer’ side of the quarter final draw, where they face PSG, for the chance to then meet Atletico Madrid or RB Leipzig in the semi finals.
Back in August, the Serie A top scorers were as big as 250/1 with Skybet for the Champions League. Atalanta were 20/1 a month ago – and are now a general 10/1-ish.
Rather than take the bandwagon price, I reckon we’ll be better off waiting for the individual Champions League knockout games to come along in August, and look to the goals markets and options on the day.
- On the long-term front, 20/1 Football Angles pick Harry Kane is currently in the Each Way places for Champions League Top Goalscorer, although Spurs & Harry are out of the competition. And 66/1 long-shot Timo Werner is still in with a shout for RB Leipzig, albeit needing a goal flurry to get up there in the top 4 places
Analysis & advice for tonight...
I have three games and two picks from my research for today’s fixtures. Kick-off is 6pm, so I’ll try and make it snappy…
Birmingham v Charlton
This is a big game in the bottom section of the Championship table, with both clubs too close to the relegation zone for their own liking (Birmingham are four points above the bottom three places; Charlton 1 pt).
Charlton have lost three in a row, but have managed two wins since returning to action. Birmingham have lost four in a row, and are winless in 11 Championship matches going back to before lockdown. Three of the Blues’ last four defeats were To Nil.
Key stats:
- 8 out of 12 Charlton league wins this season have been by a one-goal margin of victory
- 5 of them have paid out on the 1-0 score-line, making that by far Charlton’s most noteworthy Correct Score stat this season
Backed up by the knowledge that five of Charlton’s six games since the restart have featured 0 or 1 Total Goals. With four of those six ending 1-0 to either side. Odds of 8/1 (9.0) for a 1-0 Correct Score today appeal to me more than 2/1 (3.0) for the Away Win.
Even with Brum now having Craig Gardner in charge as new caretaker manager, there’s enough in the goals form & stats to make case for a decent-price score-line prediction here.
Premier League Corners…
Two teams catch the eye from the Premier League Most Corners stats on our website …
Burnley have been out-cornered in each of their last eight Premier League games. With recent corners tallies going against Sean Dyche’s side by scores of: 12-6, 10-3, 9-3, 9-1, 7-1.
Wolves on the other hand have been impressive corner claimers this season, and have landed Most Corners bets in eight of their last 11 league games. As the League Stats on our website show, Wolves’ 71% overall record for that bet is only bettered in the top-flight by Man City and Chelsea.
Along with Burnley, Newcastle are joint-2nd bottom of that table, winning the Corners Match Bet in just 9 attempts out of 35 in this campaign. Tottenham, however, have paid out on the Most Corners in 6 of their last 7 Premier League outings. With the Head-2-Head on our site showing that Spurs have delivered on that bet in 4 of their last 5 away.
We had a decent Most Corners double last Sunday. Wolves & Tottenham are my pick for that tactic again in today’s 6pm kick offs. With each team around 1/2 (1.50), the combo pays 5/4 (2.25) – and better in a few places. See below for the bookies & best prices.
Today’s picks
Birmingham v Charlton (6pm)
Championship
- Correct Score: Charlton 1-0 @ 8/1 (9.0) with BetVictor, 15/2 (8.5) in general
Burnley v Wolves (6pm)
Newcastle v Tottenham (6pm)
Premier League
- Double – Most Corners: Wolves & Tottenham @ 13/8 (2.63) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.5) 888 Sport, Unibet, 7/5 (2.4) William Hill, 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, BetVictor, Skybet
I’ll be back tomorrow with more stats, betting angles and analysis for you.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
