Thursday 16th September 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Europa League – Outright Winner analysis…
• Conference League starts tonight…
• Roma v CSKA Sofia, 8pm on BT Sport…

A team-news pick for tonight…

The historical Outright Winner figures inform us of a couple of things, that if nothing else, can make us think twice about backing teams from certain leagues & countries in this season’s Europa League…

Choose your nation wisely…

Going back over the last decade, Europa League history tells us that:  

• In the last 10 years, 6 of the 20 finalists have been English clubs (30%) 
• 8 of the last 20 finalists have been Spanish (40%) – including 7 of the last 10 winners (Atletico Madrid 2 wins, Sevilla 4 wins, and Villarreal – those three clubs are all in the Champions League this season)

And taking note of some very long-running national droughts:

• Since Borussia Dortmund reached the final in 2001/02, only one out of 38 finalists (across 19 seasons) have come from Germany (Werder Bremen runner-up 2008/09)
• Inter Milan’s runner-up finish in 2019/20 was the only time in the last 22 seasons that an Italian side has reached the final

It’s not an exact science. And records are there to be broken. But recent history says to steer clear of the German and Italian clubs in the Europa League.

And we should also note that all of the Spanish success in this tournament over the past decade was largely down to two clubs, Sevilla and Atletico Madrid. Neither are involved this season, instead playing at the top table in the Champions League.

We can use that historical info to draw a line, in pencil at least, through quite a few names on the 2021/22 Europa League list…

Here’s how the Outright Winner market looks at Bet365:

Last season, there were two strong favourites, with Premier League clubs Tottenham and Arsenal at 7/1 each at the front of the market. Spurs were knocked out in the Last 16 by Dinamo Zagreb. The Gunners reached the semi finals, losing out to eventual champs Villarreal.

This time, nobody is as short as 7/1 in the betting. It’s all double-figures and above. Including 14/1 Leicester, who form part of our UEFA 2021/22 cups combo – a fun long-shot that went in the book at 993/1 earlier this week (read all about it here).

• Leicester kick-off tonight, at home v fellow 14/1 tournament favs, Napoli 

Dropouts move the goalposts…

I like an Each Way bet at big prices. But we’re not going to go reaching for a rank outsider here just for the sake of it. For starters, some teams’ odds might not actually change all that much between now and the start of the knockout phase in February…

Such is the structure of the Europa League season, teams finishing 3rd in their Champions League groups in December will drop into this second-tier UEFA tournament in February.

A cursory glance at the 2021/22 Champions League groups is enough to show that sizeable clubs such as AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Benfica, French league champions Lille – or indeed, current Europa League holders Villarreal – could all end up dropping down from the Champions League to the Europa this season.

Right now, I’m happy to have 14/1 Leicester as one leg of the aforementioned speculative Champions League/ Europa League/ Europa Conference League Trixie.

As the season progresses, I’ll be monitoring the form and prices. We may make another move at a later date, with the start of the knockout rounds the likely timeslot for that.

Conspicuous by its absence…

The conspicuous absence of a Top Goalscorer market for the Europa League only backs up what we’re saying about the ‘Champions League dropout’ factor.

Jose Mourinho is on record as saying the Champions League dropout rule is unfair. He’s got a point. From a betting point of view, it’s certainly a goalpost mover. Imagine if a Premier League side got to drop into the EFL Trophy after going out of the FA Cup. A crude example maybe, but you get my point.

Stephan’s set to start…

There are 29 games on Thursday’s UEFA fixture list. I’ve got a betting angle for one of the 8pm kick-offs in the newly-formed Conference League…

Roma v CSKA Sofia

8pm – BT Sport ESPN

This is career match no.1,001 in management for Roma boss, Jose Mourinho. So far, he’s started life at his new club in Italy with five out of five wins in all competitions. The Mourinho factor is one of the key reasons why Roma for the Conference League went in our giant-odds combo for the UEFA cups this season.

Last month I wrote a piece called The Veteran Scorers Club, looking at the abundance of 30+ strikers still plying their trade at the top table in Italy. I was about to go down that route again today, but I’d have been doing Stephan El Shaarawy a disservice – seeing as he’s not yet reached his 30th birthday…

Roma’s number 92…

It feels to me like El Shaarway has been around for ages. But the Roma forward is still only 28 years of age – turning 29 next month. So, there’s plenty left in the legs yet…

So far, Mourinho has utilised El Shaarawy as a substitute. And to pretty good effect, too. With the former AC Milan striker coming off the bench in four games this season, and scoring in two of them.

That includes a 70th-minute appearance last weekend in Serie A, with Stephan grabbing a 92nd-minute winner. He must like that number, as he wears 92 on the back of his shirt. Worth noting if you happen to dabble in the backwater ‘Shirt Numbers/ Scorers’ markets with the spread betting firms.

El Shaarawy also came off the bench to score the final goal in a 3-0 win v Trabzonspor in the Europa Conference League qualifying rounds in August.

The main reason to get behind the 28-year-old tonight though is because according to all reports I can see today, he’s set to be in the starting XI for Roma. With new signing Tammy Abraham rested for the upcoming league business.

Indeed, it appears some bookies are waiting for confirmation of the team news. With Bet365 a noticeable industry leader yet to price up their Goalscorers markets for tonight’s game v CSKA Sofia. Oddschecker are no help today, with the scorer markets missing from their pages as I write, too.

I’ve shopped around though, and the odds-against Anytime Scorer prices for El Shaaraway are worth taking in my opinion. This guy is a proven scorer over many years.

You might want to wait until closer to kick off, if you want to be sure of the line-ups. LiveScore and FlashScore are two reliable websites & apps to check from 7.30pm onwards. As well as the official UEFA site.

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Roma v CSKA Sofia

Europa Conference League
8pm – BT Sport ESPN

• Anytime Scorer: STEPHAN EL SHAARAWY @ 6/4 (2.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/5 (2.4) Betfred, Betway, SpreadEx Fixed Odds, 11/8 (2.38) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 13/10 (2.3) Sporting Index Odds, 6/5 (2.2) William Hill

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Weekend Preview email.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues