Thursday 14th August 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• 2025/26 ante-post advice…
• Top Goalscorer - Each Way…
• Premier League kicks-off this weekend… 

Back this England star at 20/1…

We looked at a whole load of Premier League Top Goalscorer stats yesterday…

Now it’s time to make our first move in the English top-flight markets, before the action starts this weekend…

Throughout the season, your Across the Leagues weekend picks emails will ordinarily land in your inbox on a Friday. But I’m on the motorway tomorrow - the last of the summer trips done, before we get down to weekly football-league business. So, here we go today…

100/1 chances…

If it’s a giant-odds, long-shot contender you’re looking for, then when it comes to the Premier League top scorer, the likes of Phil Foden and Bruno Fernandes are on the radar - albeit from a distance. Both have placed in this market before (Top 4 finish).

Foden is 150/1 with SpreadEx & Sporting Index, and 100/1 at Ladbrokes & Coral. Other firms are double figures, more like 80/1 - 50/1.

Fernandes is 100/1 with BetVictor, and 80/1 in general.

Indeed, we backed Manchester United captain Fernandes at 100s last season. Eight league goals were enough to make Bruno his club’s joint-top scorer, but nowhere near bothering the top of the overall charts. In fact, he scored more goals in cup competitions than he did in the Premier League.

As for Foden, I think my colleague Shaun put it best in our group chat last night: it depends if the ‘real Phil Foden’ returns. The 25-year-old England and Manchester City player has all the talent, but injuries and loss of top form have slowed him down in recent times. Phil got seven league goals last term; enough to put him joint-2nd for his club (although miles behind goal machine Erling Haaland, who scored 22).

Champions could spread the goals around…

Last season we also - successfully - backed Mo Salah. The Liverpool superstar banged in 29 goals, winning by a distance in the end, and landing odds of 12/1 - 10/1 Each Way.

We labelled Salah ‘Mr Consistent’ - and with good reason. The Egyptian forward has now racked up 18+ Premier League goals in each of the last eight seasons. In that time, Salah has converted 34 out of 40 penalties. Things might be a little different at Anfield this season though…

First and foremost, Mo is just 5/1 in the betting - half the odds we got 12 months ago.

What’s more, the 33-year-old may find himself using his silky skills to provide assists to some of his new teammates. The Reds have spent big this summer, with the likes of Florian Wirtz (66/1 outsider for top scorer) being a supreme creative talent… Hugo Ekitike (20/1) new up front… and still the possibility that striker Alexander Isak (6/1) could arrive in a mega-money move from Newcastle. Cody Gakpo (66/1) is still at Anfield, too.

In a nutshell, the reigning champions could spread their goals around a bit more this season. Ultimately, it’s the shorter price that puts me off backing Salah again. Last season, he managed to finish top scorer AND with the most assists in the whole of the Premier League. A mighty feat, and as such, one that would be hard to repeat.

Watching brief on Watkins…

Another player we gave a nod to as ‘Mr Consistent’ ahead of last season was Ollie Watkins. He went off at 16/1 in 2024/25; this year he’s priced at 25/1…

After posting 16 goals for Aston Villa as their top league scorer last season, Watkins has now scored 10+ league goals, nine seasons running. With his tallies since arriving in the Premier League standing at (most recent first): 16, 19, 15, 11, 14.

Those are great stats, and it’s easy to make a case for the 29-year-old as a ‘best of the rest’ kind of pick in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market, at 25/1 Each Way. However, as with so many players/ clubs right now, there are transfer rumours to consider. It may well be that Watkins stays at Villa, or indeed in the Premier League (going to Newcastle, for example).

I’m advising a watching brief on Watkins. It could just be that we can beat odds of 25/1 for him in the weeks to come. If a price drift occurs and he’s not injured, and still in the top-flight, then Ollie may reappear in our betting at a later date.

Palmer the real deal at 20/1…

All of which leads me to the man I want to get in the book today, from day one, before a ball is kicked. A player whose pre-season price is less likely to hit anything much bigger, especially if he carries on his stellar form…

• Note: Read yesterday’s 5 Steps article to find out why we’re keen to look for a player outside of the favourites at the very top of the betting…

COLE PALMER at 20/1 is my Each Way pick.

The 23-year-old Chelsea and England star was the very first name on my list when it came to picking my team in this season’s Premier League Fantasy Draft game - and I got my man.

If you followed Across the Leagues over the summer, then you’ll have seen - and hopefully, profited from - our 20/1 winning bet on Palmer for the Golden Ball at the FIFA Club World Cup.

I’ve been saying it to anyone who’ll listen for a couple of years now: Palmer is the real deal. The way this guy takes penalties, sits players and goalies down, finishes with class and clinical precision - he’s a serious talent, and an ice-cold goal-scorer.

His stats back up my glowing appraisal, too. Last season, only heavyweight strikers and top-scorer favourites Erling Haaland (104) and Mo Salah (92) registered more Total Shots in the Premier League than Palmer (86).

Cole also finished joint-1st for most Attempts at Goal at the Club World Cup this summer. The Chelsea no.10 is certainly not scared to shoot. He has confidence in his ability, and that’s great to see.

• Cole Palmer has got into double figures in the Premier League, 2 seasons running. Scoring 15 goals in 2024/25. And 22 goals in 2023/24, when he finished in 2nd place on the overall top-scorer chart

As I’ve drummed home at length this summer, penalties count for a lot when it comes to Top Goalscorer picks. Palmer is best-in-class in this department…

• The Chelsea left-footer slotted-in 4 out of 5 pens in the Premier League last term, following on from 9 out of 9 successfully converted pens the season before

One more stats ‘nugget’ that’s gone into my selection process here: English players…

In 10 of the last 12 Premier League seasons, at least one Englishman has finished in the Each Way places for Top Goalscorer (and not just Harry Kane)…

That list includes:

Charlie Austin
Daniel Sturridge
Jamie Vardy
Danny Ings
Raheem Sterling
Patrick Bamford
Ivan Toney
Ollie Watkins
Dominic Solanke
Phil Foden
Cole Palmer

We’ll take Palmer at 20/1 Each Way as our opening selection for the new Premier League campaign. And keep a close eye on the stats, prices, and early-season form, with the option to go back into the top-scorer market again in the weeks or months ahead.

As we’ve done with our other pre-season player picks, we’ll also take Palmer in the Anytime Scorer market for Chelsea’s opening game against Crystal Palace this weekend (see below). The last time these clubs met, in January, Cole opened the scoring after 14 minutes.

Official Premier League player stats for Most Shots in 2024/25:

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details
 
Outright market:

Premier League 2025/26 - Top Goalscorer

Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places)

• Cole Palmer @ 20/1 Each Way Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral, 18/1 Betway, SpreadEx & Sporting Index, 16/1 Betfred, Boylesports

Chelsea v Crystal Palace

Premier League, Sun 2pm - Sky Sports

• Anytime Scorer: Cole Palmer @ 13/10 (2.3) William Hill, 888 Sport, 5/4 (2.25) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, Unibet, Betway, 6/5 (2.2) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betfred

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I’ll be back next week with more.

P.S
Look out for Across the Leagues EXTRA hitting your inbox soon, too - with the 1st round of our 2025/26 free-to-play Premier League Predictor game.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues