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Back this penalty-taking captain at 66/1...

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Championship 2021/22…
  • Top Goalscorer – Each Way value…
  • Penalties the key…

Back this penalty-taking captain at 66/1…

The new English Football League (EFL) season starts this weekend. As we did ahead of last week’s Scottish Premiership kick-off, we’re looking to grab some early-bird Each Way value in the Top Goalscorer market…

With 24 teams in the English Championship, compared to 12 in the Scottish Premiership, we have an extra Each Way place to shoot for here. With the bookmakers paying 1/4 odds for the Top 4 scorers.

Championship contenders…

We can’t talk about the Championship without mentioning the top-flight trampoline. There are several yo-yo clubs that find it hard to keep their balance in the Premier League, but much easier to bounce high in the second tier…

Relegated West Brom are already known as the boing-boing Baggies. They’ve got Karlan Grant up front. He’s in with the Top Goalscorer favourites for 2021/22, priced between 16/1 and 12/1 to finish top of the Championship scoring chart.

Norwich and their frontman Teemu Pukki are back in the Premier League this season, but Fulham & Aleksandar Mitrovic have dropped back down into the Championship…

Last season, I backed Mitrovic as a 100/1 outsider in the Premier League, and he didn’t do much for me (three league goals, and a missed penalty). This year, he goes off as a single-figure favourite for the Championship 2021/22 Top Goalscorer. Fulham are 11/2 (6.5) market leaders to win the title and bounce straight back up, and Mitrovic is 8/1 to be top scorer. Those are not the kind of season-long odds that appeal to me.

New kids on the block – at the same old prices…

Recent years have seen us bank Each Way profits – and come close to the big prize. With Championship scorer selections such as 50/1 Billy Sharp in 2018/19 (tied 4th), and 33/1 Ollie Watkins in 2019/20 (2nd).

Last season, in League One, we garnered several payouts from Blackpool winning promotion. Including a place return from 33/1 Each Way pick Jerry Yates (tied 3rd). Now getting the chance to see what he can do one rung higher up the Football League ladder, Yates goes off at 33/1 across the board in the Championship.

He’s still only 24 years of age, so there is certainly scope for Yates to continue on an upward trajectory. But I’d want better than the exact same price from 12 months ago, when he was playing in a lower division. We probably got the best of the value on Jerry last time out.

Similar things can be said about two other newly-promoted League One top scorers from last season:

  • Hull’s Malik Wilks – age 22 – was tied 5th in League One last season, with 19 goals. He’s 33/1 and 40/1 in general in the Championship, although BetVictor and Betfred are dangling 66/1
  • Peterborough’s Jonson Clarke-Harris – age 27 – was the outright top scorer in League One 2020/21, with 31 goals. He’s well respected in the betting here, with 16/1 and 20/1 in general, and no bigger than 22/1 at best (Skybet)

As with Yates, Clarke-Harris’ new Championship 2021/22 price hardly alters from his League One 2020/21 quote. In other words, the value doesn’t look to be there – unless another big leap in consistency and performance comes about…

For recent examples of players continuing to improve and score goals as they move up the divisions, see two young men that went up the leagues and scored well for Brentford, Ollie Watkins, and Ivan Toney. Both are now Premier League players.

With the transfer window running until 31st August, we’re in no rush to lay down too many ante-post wagers before the squads & line-ups fully take shape.

But the early bird catches the worm, and we can still look to swoop on any players & prices that stand out as value, Each Way propositions. And in a market like Top Goalscorer, the games played in the first month of the season could see someone make a fast start in the scoring charts…

Penalties the key…

Here are the Championship Top Goalscorer results from the past five seasons. As we noted last week when backing Hibernian’s Martin Boyle in the Scottish Premiership, a reliable penalty taker can be worth their weight in gold in these markets. That being the case, I thought it would be interesting to also note down the penalty stats recorded by for the recent highest-scoring men in the Championship…

Last 5 Seasons

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places

Championship 2020/21:
Ivan Toney (Brentford, 3rd) – 31 goals – 9 pens out of 9
Adam Armstrong (Blackburn, 15th) – 28 goals – 5 pens out of 8
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 26 goals – 5 pens out of 7
Kieffer Moore (Cardiff, 8th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Championship 2019/20:
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham, 4th) – 26 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Ollie Watkins (Brentford, 3rd) – 25 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Lewis Grabban (N.Forest, 7th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Karlan Grant (Huddersfield, 18th) – 19 goals – 6 pens out of 7

Championship 2018/19:
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 29 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa, 5th) – 25 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Neal Maupay (Brentford, 11th) – 25 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Dwight Gayle (West Brom, 4th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Billy Sharp (Sheff Utd, 2nd) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 2

Championship 2017/18:
Matej Vydra (Derby, 6th) – 21 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Lewis Grabban (A.Villa, 4th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Leon Clarke (Sheff Utd, 10th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Bobby Reid (Bristol City, 11th) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3

Championship 2016/17:
Chris Wood (Leeds, 7th) – 27 goals – 5 pens out of 5
Tammy Abraham (Bristol City, 17th) – 23 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Dwight Gayle (Newcastle, 1st) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Glenn Murray (Brighton, 2nd) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Those numbers tell us that:

  • Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 4th
  • Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 7th

Over the last five seasons in the Championship:

  • 4 of the 5 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season
  • 12 of the 21 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season
  • 16 of the 21 players scored at least one penalty in a season, and only 2 players didn’t take any pens

Going back a full 10 years, and looking at the men that finished in 1st position in the Championship scorer charts:

  • 7 out of last 10 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

Captain Cauley at 66/1…

It’s pretty clear then, that we want to have a solid penalty taker in our Championship 2021/22 portfolio. With the prices in mind, a player I like in the pre-season list is Barnsley striker, CAULEY WOODROW…

The 26-year-old Englishman has just been made Barnsley captain. That being the case, the arrival of fellow 26-year-old forward, Devante Cole, on a free transfer from Motherwell, is unlikely to dislodge Woodrow from his lead striker role at Oakwell. Cole scored 11 league goals (one penalty) in the Scottish top-flight last season. He’s in with the rank outsiders for Championship top scorer, at 150/1 (Bet365).

  • Cauley Woodrow scored 6 out of 6 penalties last season. In his Barnsley league career overall, he’s scored 10 out of 10

Woodrow is available at top prices of 66/1, 50/1 and 40/1, Each Way. Elsewhere, the likes of Betfred go just 28/1, with Ladbrokes & Coral at 25/1. A difference of opinion like that often means there’s some value to had…

Last season, Cauley Woodrow scored 12 league goals for Barnsley in the Championship. The season before, he bagged 14. Successfully stepping up a division, having found the net 16 times in Barnsley’s promotion-winning campaign in League One in 2018/19.

Barnsley have made good progress in recent times. Last season, the Tykes finished 5th in the Championship, in the playoff places – and ranked 8th highest scorers in the division. That was a significant leap of improvement from 2019/20, when the Tykes finished just above the relegation zone – and ranked second-bottom on our Total Goals For table – in their first season after being promoted from League One.

There’s a new man in charge at Oakwell for the start of the 2021/22 campaign, with Austrian Markus Schopp appointed manager in June. The bookies make Barnsley 20/1 in general for the Championship title, and a 6/1 contender for Promotion to the Premier League.

Right now, for bigger prizes in the individual player market, I like Woodrow at 40/1+ Each Way for Top Goalscorer. He’s been the Tykes’ top scorer two seasons running, and if the club continue to progress this season, then the best rewards could come from following their captain in front of goal.

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Championship 2021/22:

Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places.

I’ll be back on Thursday & Friday, as we continue our build-up to the new Football League season.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues