Tuesday 3rd November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

• Champions League match-day 3…
• EFL midweek fixtures…
• Stats and picks for tonight…

20/1 and 94/1 prices for this evening…

Jamie Vardy is ticking over nicely in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market. Our 18/1 Each Way pick from the start of the season, the Leicester striker was on target for the third straight away game last night.

The Foxes won 4-1 at Leeds and move 2nd in the table. Vardy is now on seven league goals, just one off the top spot.

Champions League – match-day 3…

Champions League match-day three kicks off this evening, and we’ve got three men in the book for the Top Goalscorer market in European club football’s top competition, all at attractive Each Way prices:

• Romelu Lukaku (33/1) has 2 goals from 2 games so far in the Group stage, but has picked up an injury. We’ll hope to see him back on the pitch and scoring goals for Inter Milan soon

• Raheem Sterling (20/1) got off the mark for the season in Europe last week. The Man City forward will likely be involved in plenty of attacking moves for City at home to Olympiakos this evening. He’s Evens (2.0) to find the net again

• Duvan Zapata (33/1 – 20/1) is the most recent addition to our 2020/21 Champions League book. The Atalanta striker has 3 goals from the opening 2 rounds, just one off the current top spot. He’s also around Evens to score tonight, against Liverpool

Those are exciting prices, with the potential to keep us entertained and in with chances, well into the Knockout rounds after Christmas.

And today, the big-odds approach is the way I’m going in the match markets, too…

20/1 & 25/1 in Italy…

Atalanta v Liverpool is a fixture that I’ve had earmarked for goals ever since the Champions League draw was made, with these two sides coming out the hat for Group D.

• The Italians are 8 out of 8 this season in all competitions for Over 2.5 Goals payouts. Seven of those games have also gone over the higher 3.5 Goals line

• 6 of Liverpool’s 7 Premier League matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, with 4 of them producing Over 3.5 Goals

The bookmakers are taking no chances in that department this evening. Over 2.5 Goals is just 4/11 (1.36), and Over 3.5 is also odds-on, at 10/11 (1.91) at best.

Both Teams to Score is also no better than 4/11. And Boylesports are an industry ‘top price’ for the Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score in the game combo, at just 1/2 (1.5).

Rollercoaster potential…

If you’ve been following my write-ups since the summer then you’ll know Atalanta are a team to keep on the radar for Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) turnarounds…

This is one of the most speculative football markets, but we were rewarded for this tactic in the Champions League quarter finals in August (PSG coming from 0-1 down at half time to beat Atalanta, 2-1).

It hasn’t happened again for Atalanta so far this season, but their eight games since that joyous 25/1 night for us have hinted that another HT/ FT flip-flop could be on the cards sooner or later…

Score-lines such as 2-4, 1-4, 5-2, 2-2 (I could go on) show the kind of matches that this free-scoring Italian team tend to get involved in. Last week in the Champions League, Atalanta came from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 with Ajax.

For their part, Liverpool are in the ballpark for topsy-turvy outcomes right now, too...

With world class centre back Virgil Van Dijk missing in defence, the Reds have come from a goal down to win in two of their last three outings, eventually winning 2-1 v Sheffield United (1-1 at half time), and then 2-1 again v West Ham last Saturday (also 1-1 at half time).

The full-scale scoreboard reversal gives by far the biggest odds in this Half Time/ Full Time market…

The Atalanta/ Liverpool option can be backed at 20/1 and 22/1, with Liverpool/ Atalanta a standout 25/1.

A speculative tactic, for sure. But the rewards are substantial, and these two attack-minded sides certainly fit the bill for a scenario like this. We could also have a second go at this in the upcoming reverse fixture at Anfield, too.

Top v Bottom match-ups…

There are a couple of top v bottom match-ups in the Championship stats this evening…

• Blackburn v Middlesbrough sees the No.1 team in the division for Over 2.5 Goals bets, Blackburn (6 out of 9 games). Taking on ‘Boro, who are top of the Championship standings on our website for Under 2.5 Goals (8 out of 9 games)
• Blackburn have the division’s joint-top scorer, Adam Armstrong (9 goals). While Neil Warnock’s Middlesbrough have kept 4 Clean Sheets in their last 5 games

The numbers cancel themselves out on paper for this evening’s game at the new Brentford Community Stadium, too:

• Brentford are ranked No.1 in the Championship for Under 10.5 Corners results this season (8 out of 9 games). Visitors Swansea on the other hand are in 1st place on our site for Over 10.5 Corners (6 out of 9 games)

There’s a full midweek programme in the English Football League (EFL) across today and tomorrow. You can view all the latest League, Team, and Head-2-Head stats by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website.

94/1 in the Football League…

Three games catch the eye for a potential blockbuster result this evening…

Win & Both Teams to Score is a market we’ve had success with before. When the situation suits, this bet is a great way to snag some chunky prices on teams with high goals stats & winning form.

From the Tuesday fixture list in the EFL, this trio all have credentials to land the odds:

• Norwich v Millwall (Championship). Norwich have won 4 of their last 5 games, with 3 of those paying out on Win & Both Teams to Score. The Canaries have delivered on that bet in each of their last 3 encounters with Millwall, winning 1-3, 4-3, 2-1. Sticking with that head-to-head history in the Championship, 7 of the last 8 meetings have paid out on Both Teams to Score, and on Over 2.5 Goals

• Bristol Rovers v Peterborough (League One). Leaders Peterborough have won 6 of their last 7. Three of those paid out on the Win & Both Teams to Score, with score-lines of 3-1, 1-2, 5-1. Peterborough are the top scorers in League One this season. Bristol Rovers have scored in 8 of their 9 games, with their last two defeats ending 1-3 and 4-1

• Carlisle v Newport County (League Two). Newport County are 5 points clear in League Two and on a 5-game winning run. Four of their 8 league victories this season have come good for Win & Both Teams to Score. County have scored in 100% of games so far. Carlisle have scored in all 4 of their home games, and 4 of their last 5 overall have seen goals at both ends

Each of those selections are available at around 3/1+ each.

And for genuinely massive odds for a Tuesday night multiple, the Win & Both Teams to Score treble pays 94/1 and 80/1.

Take your pick and place these as you feel best. As with Atalanta v Liverpool, the stats & form suggest enough possibilities to make it well worth getting involved…

Today’s picks

Here’s a summary of the standout bets highlighted in today’s analysis…

Champions League:

Atalanta v Liverpool
8pm, BT Sport

• Half Time/ Full Time: Atalanta/ Liverpool @ 22/1 with Skybet, 21/1 BetVictor, 20/1 VBet, 18/1 in general

• Half Time/ Full Time: Liverpool/ Atalanta @ 25/1 Skybet, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet, 22/1 in general

Championship:

Norwich v Millwall
7pm

• Norwich to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365, 16/5 (4.2) BetVictor, 3/1 (4.0) in general

League One:

Bristol Rovers v Peterborough
7pm

• Peterborough to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfred, Betway, 29/10 (3.9) BetVictor 

League Two:

Carlisle v Newport County
7pm

• Newport County to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 9/2 (5.5) with Bet365, BetVictor and in general

And:

• TREBLE: Win & Both Teams to Score – Norwich, Peterborough & Newport County @ 94/1 with Bet365, 89/1 BetVictor, 80/1+ in general

I’ll be back tomorrow with analysis & advice for Wednesday’s games, including the Champions League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues