Friday 27th May 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Liverpool v Real Madrid…
• Corners, Cards, Scorers – and Penalties…
• UEFA Player of the Match award…

Champions League Final Preview – including a 7/1 pick…

It’s time to crank up the volume for one last blast of the Champions League theme tune this season…

It’s Liverpool v Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League final in Paris. While I admit I enjoyed watching Eurovision the other week, this of course is the real European Saturday-night TV attraction…

Let’s take a look at the stats and prices:

Liverpool v Real Madrid

Champions League Final – Paris, France

Saturday 8pm – BT Sport, free on BT Sport YouTube channel

Match odds (Normal Time):
Liverpool 21/20 (2.05)
Draw 13/5 (3.6)
Madrid 13/5 (3.6)

To Lift the Trophy:
Liverpool 4/7 (1.57)
Madrid 11/8 (2.38)

Method of Victory:
Liverpool – Extra Time 10/1 (Bet365)
Liverpool – Penalties 12/1 (Skybet, BetVictor)
Real Madrid – Extra Time 16/1 (Bet365)
Real Madrid – Penalties 14/1 (Skybet)

The two European giants are pretty familiar with each other…

Real Madrid knocked Liverpool out over two legs in the quarter finals last season – 3-1 at home, then 0-0 away.

And in the 2017/18 final, Madrid were also victorious 3-1. The game was goalless at half time, before coming to life when Karim Benzema opened the scoring on 55 mins.

Top Scorers…

Four years after that clash, and Benzema is still going strong, top scorer in the Spanish La Liga this season (27 goals), and also in 1st place for the Champions League golden boot (15 goals). If you’re looking for a scorer bet on Saturday night, he’s the main man at the top of the betting for Madrid.

For Liverpool, the headline striker is our 20/1 Champions League Top Goalscorer pick, Mo Salah. He’s in 4th place on the overall standings for 2021/22, putting him in line for an Each Way payout at 1/4 odds, barring any mad outcomes in the final (he’s on 8 goals). In the Premier League, Mo was joint-winner of the Golden Boot (23 goals).

• Benzema and Salah are around 13/10 (2.3) each to score Anytime in the final (applies to normal time only). And 4/1 (5.0) or 9/2 (5.5) apiece for First Goalscorer

Potential for Pens…

If we get any penalties awarded in the match, then those boys will be in pole position to take them:

• Benzema has scored 3 out of 3 pens in the Champions League this season, and 7 out of 11 in La Liga

• Salah has scored 1 out of 2 pens in the Champions League 2021/22, and 5 out of 6 in the Premier League

And with this being a cup final between two seasoned European champions, we should perhaps prepare for a long night that goes all the way to extra time and a penalty shootout…

• Liverpool have won the EFL Cup and FA Cup this season. Both finals finished 0-0 after normal time & extra time (v Chelsea both times) – with the Reds winning on Penalties

• In both the quarter finals and semi finals of this season’s Champions League, Real Madrid won in Extra Time (v Chelsea and Manchester City)

Referring to the match odds quoted above, the 90-minute (normal time) draw at 13/5 obviously covers any extra time/ pens scenario. But for bigger odds, you might want to take a look at those Method of Victory (‘How will the final be won’) markets – with odds of 10/1+ available for the various Extra Time and Penalties outcomes.

Cards and Corners…

The Cards markets might be best left alone for the final, as referees have been, as one TV pundit said recently during the Europa League final, ‘consistently refusing to give yellow cards for yellow card offences’…

That lenient, let-the-game flow attitude might point to an ‘Under’ the Total Cards payout on Saturday night. Indeed, the Europa League final between Eintracht Frankfurt and Rangers produced a total of just two yellow cards.

Bet365 are going Under 3.5 Cards at 6/5 (2.2). Although it’s worth noting that both legs of the Champions League semi finals featuring these clubs went well Over that 3.5 line.

The Corners stats provide a more confident target for me…

Key stats:

• Liverpool won the Most Corners in 79% of Premier League games this season. And they’ve landed that Corners Match Bet in 11 out of 12 Champions League matches (92%)

In comparison:

• Real Madrid won the Most Corners in 63% of La Liga games. And have come out on top in the Corners Match Bet in just one of their last 7 in the Champions League

Liverpool are odds-on favourites at 4/9 (1.44) and 2/5 (1.4) to win the Most Corners (called Corners Match Bet with some firms, including Bet365).

I like Liverpool -2 Corner Handicap at Evens+ (2.0+). Jurgen Klopp’s team have landed that bet in seven of their last 10 outings in all competitions. Paying out if the Reds win 3+ corners more than Madrid in normal time.

Play the formbook for Player of the Match…

After namedropping the winner N‘Golo Kante for Chelsea in last year’s Champions League final, I’ve been once again researching the official UEFA Player of the Match award…

Last season, midfield maestro Kante got the official ‘man of the match’ award – which is awarded by the UEFA Technical Observer panel, consisting ex-professionals – in both legs of the semi finals, as well as the final itself.

So, let’s take a look at this season’s Champions League formbook for UEFA Player of the Match awards, so far:

• And before that, in the Round of 16, Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk scooped a Player of the Match award, along with Benzema for Madrid

In terms of a midfield class act in the vein of Kante, then Thiago for Liverpool and Luka Modric for Real are players to look out for in Saturday’s final.

Other Champions League final Player of the Match stats to consider:

• 13 of the last 20 UEFA Player of the Match winners have scored in the final

• All 20 went to a player from the team that won the cup

• Defenders have won 2 of the last 6 awards – including Virgil van Dijk for Liverpool against Tottenham in the 2018/19 final  

Diaz the man at 7/1…

One that stands out for me here the most though is Liverpool attacker Luis Diaz. He’s been brilliant since signing from Porto in January. Diaz won the (BBC) Man of the Match award in the FA Cup final. And the UEFA panel have clearly been impressed, too, giving awards to the flying Colombian during the Champions League quarter finals and semi finals.

It's also worth noting that two of the last four UEFA Player of the Match awards in the final have gone to attacking wingers – Kingsley Coman for Bayern Munich in 2020, and Gareth Bale for Real Madrid in that 2018 final v Liverpool. Luiz Diaz fits the bill, most often seen doing great work down the left flank for the Reds.

Diaz has got the form, and odds of 7/1 are well worth taking.

Bookies with a Player/ Man of the Match market at the time of writing are:

Bet365
Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
William Hill
Skybet
Ladbrokes & Coral
Boylesports

As ever, the advice is to check with your bookmaker regards to how they are settling their particular market. For example:

Bet365’s online rules state that: ‘Bets will be settled based on the result announced by the organising authority (e.g. FIFA for World Cup matches).’

Skybet and William Hill both call this market ‘UEFA Man of the Match.’ And Boylesports’ website states that their market refers to the Official UEFA Man of the Match.

TODAY’S PICKS

I’ll leave the individual staking decisions up to you. The standout bets I’ve identified in today’s analysis are:

Liverpool v Real Madrid

• Liverpool -2 Corner Handicap @ 27/20 (2.35) Unibet, 23/20 (2.15) William Hill, 11/10 (2.1) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/20 (2.05) BetVictor, Evens (2.0) Bet365, Skybet, Betway

• UEFA Player of the Match: Luis Diaz – best price 7/1 @ Bet365, Skybet

P.S

Boylesports have got an Enhanced Odds offer for the big match. If you’ve got a fancy for who will win, then these bonus odds will be of interest…

Enjoy the final…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues