Across the Leagues Betting Advice - Email Archive Content

Champions League tonight: Red Card picks at 33/1…

Wednesday 19th April 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Reading v Luton…
  • Bayern Munich v Manchester City…
  • Inter Milan v Benfica…

Champions League tonight: Red Card picks at 33/1…

Another decent Bet Builder effort for us last night. With 3 of the 5 legs ticking the box in Real Madrid’s 2-0 win at Chelsea. Including the biggest price of the bunch, Reece James for a card. Elsewhere, Victor Osimhen scored a good header late on for Napoli, to give us our latest ‘back the best’ Scorer payout…

Reading v Luton

For today’s matches, the standout Scorer pick for me comes in the English Championship. With promotion-chasing Luton’s top scorer Carlton Morris the man to follow, as the Hatters head to relegation-threatened Reading…

  • Carlton Morris is 3rd in the Championship Top Scorer standings this season, with 18 goals. And the League Stats on our website rank him 1st for First Goalscorer payouts (14, which is 5 ahead of the nearest contender)
  • Morris has paid out as First Goalscorer in 4 of Luton’s last 6 away games

Morris is also Luton’s most-carded player this season, with 11 league yellows. He’s around 5/2 (3.5) for a Card this evening. But really, we have to go with the standout stat here, and that’s Carlton for First Scorer, which is available at 4/1 (5.0) with Bet365 and 7/2 (4.5) in general.

If you prefer the Anytime Scorer option, that’s Evens and better in general (2.0+).

  • Note: Morris went off injured in his last game, so that’s the only area of doubt with this pick. You could wait for the team news around 7pm. Bets will be void if he plays no part. If he ends up on the bench as a substitute, First Scorer bets will also be void if the first goal is scored before he comes on

On to the Champions League now…

Bayern Munich v Manchester City

Bayern Munich have changed their manager again; a sign that all is not well, despite being top of the table in pursuit of yet another Bundesliga title…

This hasn’t been the free-flowing, ruthless version of the German champions that we’ve seen in years gone by. Something’s not quite clicking. A 3-0 loss at Man City in the Champions League last week was bad, but perhaps not as big a surprise as some have made it out to be.

Reports of Sadio Mane landing a punch on his teammate Leroy Sane only add to the air of discontentment around the Allianz Arena. As does a 1-1 draw at home to Hoffenheim on Saturday. A game in which Bayern were short odds-on to win, had the most shots, and dominated the corners tally (13-4). But were ultimately left looking for a goal from further down the team-sheet. French full-back Benjamin Pavard providing the relief. Franking a Bayern defenders-scoring-goals stat that we mentioned last week:

Eye-catching stat:

  • A defender or wing-back has scored in 5 of Bayern Munich’s last 6 league games

For the 1st Leg, I flagged up Bayern’s two big central defenders as massive-odds outside bets to score: Dayot Upamecano and Matthijs de Ligt. The latter was the biggest threat, going up for corners, and seeing a goal-bound header blocked from one of them...

With yesterday’s ‘repeat business’ note in mind, I’m keeping de Ligt on the outsider list for tonight’s assignment, with Bayern certainly in needs of goals from somewhere (and at least three of them). The Dutch defender can be backed at 16/1 to score Anytime, and 40/1 to score First. Stake advice: split stake, eg. 0.5 pt on each option.

Another trait of that uninspiring result against bottom-half-of-the-table side Hoffenheim was Bayern getting the Most Cards (2 yellow cards to 1)…

The League Stats on our website show that over the previous three seasons, Munich have finished in the bottom half of the Bundesliga chart for Most Cards/ Booking Points payouts. Including coming 16th out of 18 sides for the last two years, making the champions one of the ‘cleanest’ outfits in the German top-flight. This season, however, Bayern are ranked 7th for this bet. Right now, they’re a top-half team in this category. And they also got the Most Cards at Man City last week (2-1)…

Staring down a 0-3 aggregate score from kick-off this evening, with the home crowd not likely to be happy at the prospect of exiting the Champions League at the quarter-final stage – and potentially being humiliated on the score-board while they’re at it. We could see some frustrations spill over from the home players here.

Bayern Munich for the Most Cards passed my ‘go online and check the prices’ test this today. I was expecting to see the Germans as odds-on. But maybe the home-team factor has played its part here, with Munich available at odds-against to land the payout. That’s the bet for us.

And to build on another recent Cards-related point that we’ve talked about in these pages – the possibility of ill-discipline in a high-emotion 2nd leg knockout tie…

Both of last night’s 2nd legs crept Over 3.5 Cards (or 40+ Booking Points). Last week’s 1st legs produced 2 Red Cards from 4 matches. With Bayern v Man City tonight. And Benfica going to Inter Milan, 2-0 down from the home leg. We might just see a Sending Off or two by the time the evening’s out…

At this stage last season, Man City completed a 1-0 aggregate quarter-final win over Atletico Madrid. With a 0-0 away draw that saw the home team finish the game with 10 men. Of course, Bayern are a different kettle of fish to that feisty Atletico team. But the point remains valid: when faced with elimination from the biggest club cup competition, players can see red...

You’ll get around 5/1 apiece for a Red Card in tonight’s matches.

Looking for a specific player that could get into trouble, a big candidate here is the aforementioned Dayot Upamecano. He had an absolute ‘mare in the 1st leg, making error after error. When he plays well, he looks bigger and faster than his opponents. When he plays badly, he looks very clumsy indeed…

  • Upamecano is Bayern’s most-carded player this season, with 11 yellows in the Bundesliga. He’s been booked in 5 of his last 7 appearances for club & country

For a spilt-stake wager here, let’s take Upamecano to be Carded at around 3/1. And a slice of the Red Card action, with the 24-year-old available at 35/1 for what would be a second Sending Off of the season.

Inter Milan v Benfica

Benfica for the Most Cards is also available at odds-against today. For example, Benfica 0 Card Handicap at 13/10 (2.3) with Bet365. However, the match ‘script’ is the ‘only’ thing to make a case for this bet really, with the Portuguese side 2-0 down and needing to chase things. So far, Benfica have only rewarded Most Cards/ Most Booking Points bettors in one of their 8 Champions League games in 2022/23.

A more appealing target for me is the Player Cards markets, and veteran defender, Nicolas Otamendi…

The 35-year-old World Cup winning Argentinean fits any of the grizzled old pro tags that the commentators want to give him. As soon as I saw he was due back from suspension for tonight’s game, I had him on the list. Otamendi is around 2/1 (3.0) for a Card, and that looks good to me.

And for a smaller stake (eg. 0.5 point), let’s cover the 33/1 or 28/1 for Nicolas to be Sent Off, too. This match – a tricky away tie in Italy – fits the bill as much as any…

  • Otamendi is Benfica’s most-carded player this season, with 8 yellows and a red in the Portuguese Liga (you can view the stats on the Benfica Team Stats page on our site)

Log-in to view all our stats at: www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Reading v Luton – Championship, 8pm (Sky Sports Red Button)

  • First Goalscorer: CARLTON MORRIS @ 4/1 (5.0) Bet365, 7/2 (4.5) in general

Bayern Munich v Man City – Champions League, 8pm (BT Sport)

  • Most Booking Points: BAYERN MUNICH @ 13/10 (2.3) William Hill , 11/10 (2.1) Skybet . Most Cards options also available with Bet365 (0 Card Handicap), Unibet, Betway, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
  • Player to be Carded: DAYOT UPAMECANO @ 3/1 (4.0) Bet365 , 11/4 (3.75) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. AND Player to be Sent Off @ 35/1 Unibet (Red Card), 33/1 Bet365 , 25/1 Skybet, William Hill

Inter Milan v Benfica – Champions League, 8pm (BT Sport)

Play Cards markets also available with the likes of BetVictor, Boylesports, SpreadEx, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 10Bet, LiveScoreBet.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview email.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues