Wednesday 17th September 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• Ajax v Inter Milan
• Bayern Munich v Chelsea…
• PSG v Atalanta… 

Champions League tonight: Going for goals at 135/1…

We got the ‘high goals’ part right for Juventus v Dortmund last night…

After an uneventful first half, the match took off after the interval. With a rollicking second half containing eight goals - and most of them good ones, too…

Final score: 4-4. That Correct Score was priced at 200/1.

A game of two halves…

Juve v Dortmund was certainly a game of two halves. And so was Benfica v Qarabag…

The Azerbaijani side pulled off a remarkable comeback in Portugal. Having gone 2-0 down early on, and trailing 2-1 at the break. Qarabag scored twice in the second half to run out 3-2 winners…

The underdogs had been 12/1 to win the match. The 3-2 away-win Correct Score was 66/1…

And in the Half Time/ Full Time market, the HT: Benfica/ FT: Qarabag ‘Double Result’ was 80/1 with William Hill.

• We landed a big winner in this market in the Premier League a couple of weeks ago. Brighton’s 2-1 turnaround v Man City paid 35/1 - 28/1 for the HT/ FT comeback. With 40 matches played so far in 2025/26, that remains the only such scoreboard flip-flop in the Premier League this season. One from 40 games (2.5%)... last season settled at 7.63%... read more here

Expect entertainment again tonight…

Last season, 13 of the 18 games played in round one of the Champions League went Over 2.5 Goals (72%)...

Four of yesterday’s six games went Over 2.5 Goals. With three of them also paying out for Over 3.5.

Three potential high-goals fixtures for us to target this evening - all 8pm kick-offs:

Ajax v Inter Milan - Over 2.5 Goals

• Ajax’s last 7 European home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals
• Inter’s last 6 Champions League games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. As have all 3 of their domestic matches so far this season

Bayern Munich v Chelsea - Over 2.5 Goals

• Since Chelsea beat Bayern on penalties in the 2012 Champions League final, 3 out of 3 meetings between these clubs have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals
• 6 of Chelsea’s 7 Conference League away games went Over 2.5 Goals last season. As did the final (Chelsea won 4-1)
• Bayern are on 5 out of 5 so far this season for Over 2.5 Goals. Seven of their last 9 Champions League matches have produced 3+ Total Goals

PSG v Atalanta - Over 2.5 Goals

• 5 of PSG’s last 6 Champions League home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. PSG won the Champions League final, 5-0
• There have been goals at both ends in all 3 Atalanta matches so far this season, and in 6 in a row going back to last term. Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in all 5 of Atalanta’s Champions League away trips in 2024/25

The Over 2.5 Goals treble pays 5/2+ (3.5+) tonight. See below for bookies.

There’s also the possibility for some wild Correct Scores in those games. Along with the Half Time/ Full Time scoreboard turnarounds that can occur in rollercoaster, end-to-end encounters.

In terms of the Scorer markets, taking the ‘cream rises to the top’/ ‘back the best’ approach often makes sense in European club football’s top-tier cup competition…

For this evening’s big-odds angle, play these three forwards for First Goalscorer in our three targeted games:

Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan)
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
Goncalo Ramos (PSG)

The small-stakes, big-price advice here: a Trixie on those three First Goalscorer selections. Eg. splitting a stake four ways: three doubles, and the 100/1+ treble…
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Join our Champions League Fantasy league…

* 5.45pm deadline  for today’s games *

If you fancy playing the official free Champions League Fantasy game, join up on the UEFA website at the link below:

https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/create-team

You get 100m Euros to select 15 players. I found that enough to cram plenty of star names into the squad…

I’ve set up an ATL Members league for us. Who knows, we might even be able to rustle up a prize at the end of the season. As well as getting your name up in lights in front of your fellow Across the Leagues members, of course…

Here’s the code to join our league:

whGiVw

Go to:
 
https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/create-team

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Champions League, 8pm - TNT Sports

Ajax v Inter Milan
Bayern Munich v Chelsea
PSG v Atalanta

• Treble: Over 2.5 Goals @ 14/5 (3.8) Betfred, Unibet, SpreadEx, Sporting Index, 27/10 (3.7) Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365, 5/2+ (3.5+) Betway, BetVictor, Skybet, William Hill 
• Trixie. First Goalscorers - Martinez, Kane, Ramos. Best odds Skybet (135/1 the treble), 100/1+ in general

----------------------------------------------------------

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the stats, prices and markets for Newcastle v Barcelona…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues