Friday 4th August 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• The season starts tonight…
• Each Way picks at 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1…
• Scorer selections for the weekend…

Championship Top Scorer picks at 40/1…

I could write a ginormous article about the new-season Top Goalscorer markets. And if we went after all 17 leagues covered in the stats database on your members-only Across the Leagues website, we’d be here all week at least. In fact, we’d miss kick-off…

Instead, we’re going to ease ourselves into the new 2023/24 season. Focusing on the English Championship, which starts tonight with Sheffield Wednesday v Southampton on Sky Sports (8pm). This time last year, Sheff Wed were in League One, and the Saints were still a Premier League club. Things change fast in football.

None of the players we are backing today feature in tonight’s opening match. But the bookmakers may well be slippery here and take down the entire Top Goalscorer market before kick-off this evening – and not reinstate it until Monday morning, after all the weekend fixtures have been played. Indeed, Bet365’s market has a 7.45pm marker on it today…

That being the case, we should move with relative haste this Friday daytime, and get our first two ante-post picks in the book. After all, in a market such as Top Goalscorer, betting before a ball has been kicked can often prove the best time to snag the biggest price…

Doing the homework…

As showcased in yesterday’s stats & analysis, I’ve spent several hours this week plundering the Football League scorer stats. And cross-referencing with the bookies’ 2023/24 prices. Along with checking for hints of team news, injury status, transfer rumours (that old classic)…

It’s fair to say that while my wife was out strolling by the river with the baby in the pram, I was getting square eyes at the computer. Good job I love this game. And of course, the sporting calendar waits for no man. The summer weather can do what it likes… the new football season is here!

As I say, we could talk until the cows come home about who’s signed for who, which players might be moving where, who did XY&Z last season, and who might score a hatful this season. But let’s get down to a couple of key points, as we get to business in the Championship 2023/24 Top Goalscorer market. With four Each Way places to aim at – and our sights on big prices, beyond the favourites…

Here's the top of the Bet365 market. It’s top-heavy with Leicester players. That can be taken as a promising sign, opening the prices up for us to hunt further down the pack. The Foxes have dropped down from the top-flight with the likes of Jamie Vardy, Patson Daka, and Kelechi Iheanacho still in their ranks and on the payroll. They can’t all be top-scorer…

In fact, six of the top dozen in the betting, at prices from 7/1 – 20/1, are players from last season’s relegated Premier League clubs: Leicester, Southampton, and Leeds United. Including three of the top four.

Other fancied names in that betting list include two of 2022/23’s standout Championship marksmen. Top scorer Chuba Akpom (Middlesbrough). And Swansea’s Joel Piroe, who finished in the 4th & final Each Way place position. Catch up on the stats in Thursday’s email here.

As ever, question marks hang over a few names, too. With the transfer window open until the end of August. For example, will Sunderland striker Ross Stewart move to the Premier League or elsewhere (and will he be injury-free)?

Another player in that 20/1 bracket is Ellis Simms. The highly-rated youngster is a good signing for Coventry City. But the Sky Blues have lost a proper goalscoring & creative talent with Viktor Gyokeres moving abroad to pastures new. Simms is a class act, but I’m not sure he’s an out-and-out striker just yet.

Striking a line through the top names can come back to bite you. But on the other hand, we rarely regret getting a big-price pick in the book with Each Way potential… and the Championship is always competitive, which adds a wide-open feel to proceedings. In such circumstances, we should look to the outsiders more than the favourites…

Each Way picks at 40/1, 33/1 & 25/1…

Two men I like at the day-one prices in the Championship Top Goalscorer betting:

Millwall’s new signing KEVIN NISBET at 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way…

We’ve been tracking Kevin in the Scottish Premiership for a couple of years. In the 2020/21 season, Nisbet finished 2nd in the top-flight scoring charts north of the border. A fair feat for a player at a club outside of the Celtic & Rangers ‘Old Firm.’ Kevin showed his scoring potential for Hibernian again last season, returning from a long-term knee injury to still find time to bag 12 goals from 19 league appearances.

The early signs at Millwall have been good for the 26-year-old. Nisbet has found the net in three out of four summer Friendly matches. Scoring a total of five goals, including a hat-trick. And crucially perhaps – a couple of penalties…

We spoke yesterday about the importance of penalty-taking in this market. Read more here. If Nisbet gets the full-time 12-yard duties down at the New Den, then he can really make his mark as a 40/1 outsider for Championship Top Goalscorer. Millwall finished just outside the playoffs last season. They are fancied to be there or thereabouts competing again this term.

The second name I like is Ipswich striker, CONOR CHAPLIN. The 26-year-old is 25/1 in general. With Bet365 offering a standout 40/1 as I write…

Chaplin was joint-top scorer in League One last season, with 26 goals. We can forgive him two penalty misses, seeing as he was so prolific from open play. Conor has signed a contract extension to stay with the Tractor Boys, and that’s a good thing to know when backing a player for a new season when their club has just been promoted.

Making the step up to the Championship may not be the big ask that some might assume. Chaplin has played at this level before – and scored goals. Including 11 strikes for Barnsley in the 2019/20 season, which wasn’t a bad haul at all for a young forward learning his trade in the second tier of English football, for a team that ended up finishing just one point above the relegation zone. Conor has only improved since then…

And when we consider that in this new campaign, the Ipswich striker lines up for a team that the bookies have priced as joint-5th favourites to win the Championship (16/1). Conor Chaplin is going in our day-one book, along with Kevin Nisbet.

We can also look to capitalise if our boys make a fast scoring start this weekend. Not only by grabbing the Each Way top-scorer prices today. But also, by backing both Chaplin and Nisbet in the Anytime Scorer markets for their respective opening games…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

English Championship 2023/24

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Kevin Nisbet @ 40/1 Bet365, LiveScoreBet, 33/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 

• Conor Chaplin @ 40/1 Bet365, 25/1 Betfred (Each Way 5 places), William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Middlesbrough v Millwall – Saturday 3pm:

• Anytime Scorer: Kevin Nisbet @ 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/4 (3.75) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 13/5 (3.6) Bet365, Unibet, BetUK, 5/2 (3.5) Betway

Sunderland v Ipswich – Sunday 5pm, Sky Sports:

• Anytime Scorer: Conor Chaplin @ 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, 12/5 (3.4) Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, William Hill, Unibet, BetUK, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Save time! Where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the match/ market in question.

I’ll be back next week with lots more. As we prepare for the start of the Premier League…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues