Monday 1st July 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Shifting momentum in space and time…
• Portugal v Slovenia, 8pm - BBC One…
• Player of the Match @ 20/1…

Euro 2024: Picks for Portugal v Slovenia tonight…

I’m not suggesting that I can shift time and space, impact the future, and control events across lands and oceans - but…

At half time in the England game last night - I switched pubs. That move ultimately proved wildly successful. Visionary, almost. An act of magic (much like an injury-time overhead kick)...

Anyway. England won. And without my betting hat on, watching that game purely as a fan, with my brother and best mates around me. It’s hard to beat the adrenaline rush in those winning moments.

France v Belgium might provide the extra-time drama today. I’ve got that one down as a 1-1 draw on the Predictor. It’s certainly the popcorn match of the day, on paper.

But from a betting perspective, the evening game on the BBC gets my attention…

Portugal v Slovenia

A Bet365 account could come in handy for this game.

We’ll start with Portugal -4.5 Asian Handicap Corners, available with Bet365. Or the same bet with a different name, Portugal -4 Corner Handicap with other firms (see below). Paying out if the Portuguese get 5 or more corners more than the Slovenians…

• Slovenia conceded 9 corners v Denmark (5-9), another 9 against Serbia (4-9), and then failed to win a single corner kick against England (0-6)
• Portugal have won a total of 25 corners in the tournament so far. The only teams with more have all played a game extra (Germany, Spain, Denmark)

Portugal covered big Corner Handicaps in 2 of their 3 Group games, with a 13-0 flag-kick tally against Czechia, and then 11-1 against Georgia. It’s worth noting that Portugal were a goal or more down for the majority of both matches. If Slovenia manage to hold their own on the scoreboard for long periods here, then the pre-match favourites could rack up another large corner-winning margin.

Portugal -4, or -4.5 Corner Handicap is the call. You might consider the -5 Handicap at odds of 6/5+ (2.2+), too.

In the Player Cards department, we went after Slovenia’s Petar Stojanovic in the England game - and we’ll go again today. He remains a booking away from suspension. But according to the bookies’ match prices, if he does pick up a ban, it won’t mean he misses the Euro 2024 quarter finals - with Portugal short odds-on to succeed tonight (and I’ve got Portugal winning 3-0 on the Predictor).

• Stojanovic got a yellow card last time these sides met, in March of this year. A Friendly that Slovenia actually won, 2-0…

If things do get tricky for Portugal, then maybe Rafael Leao could go in the ref’s book once again. The pacy and tricky attacker goes from the sublime to the ridiculous. He was booked twice in the Group stage - both times for diving. We can 6/1 for Leao to get a card tonight. Let’s take it as an underdog bet in this market.

And finally…

Player of the Match

The Official UEFA Player of the Match Award has seen a few double-winners so far. Granit Xhaka (Switzerland), Christian Eriksen (Denmark), Jude Bellingham (England), N’Golo Kante (France), and Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) have all collected the award twice…

Those guys are all midfielder linchpins and/ or or creative playmakers. And that’s a theme we should take note of as we enter the business end of the tournament.

All three Portugal games so far have seen the official Player of the Match award go to a talented player that ticks that box: Vitinha and Bernardo Silva for Portugal, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the Georgia game.

We’re on Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes for Player of the Tournament at 25/1 - 20/1. He’s now 16/1 at best. Bruno is one of the favourites for Player of the Match today, at 5/1 with Bet365. But another name from that list above catches the eye at 20/1 in today’s match market…

Vitinha (or Vitor Machado Ferreira, as some bookies may call him - eg. Betway’s market here) - is available at a standout 20/1 with Bet365. Boylesports also have this market, for the Official UEFA Player of the Match, but I can’t see his name on it.

In short, if you can get it, take the 20/1 for Vitinha with Bet365. In comparison, he’s 11/1 at Betway.

• Vitinha has played more ‘line-breaking passes’ than any of his Portugal teammates so far

The official Player of the Match award winners are updated every evening on the UEFA website, here

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Portugal v Slovenia

8pm, BBC One

• Portugal -4 Corner Handicap @ 19/20 (1.95) William Hill, or Portugal -4.5 Asian Handicap Corners @ 9/10 (1.9) Bet365. Portugal -4 Corner Handicap also available @ 4/5 (1.8) BetVictor, 3/4 (1.75) Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 8/11 (1.73) Boylesports 
• Player to be Carded: Petar Stojanovic @ 5/2 (3.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 (3.0) Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 7/4 (2.75) Skybet, Betfred, 888 Sport
• Player to be Carded: Rafael Leao @ 6/1 (7.0) Skybet, Bet365, 5/1+ (6.0+) Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 888 Sport, Betfred, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
• Player of the Match: Vitinha @ 20/1 Bet365

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back tomorrow by 1pm, with two games in our sights on Tuesday.

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues