Thursday 24th February 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Europa League & Conference League tonight…
• Total Goals agenda…
• Kick off 5.45pm…

Europa goals: handbrake off today…

Atletico Madrid v Man Utd didn’t disappoint in terms of the number of cards. The Romanian referee dished out nine yellows – and it could have been more.

That tally made mincemeat of the bookies’ Over 4.5 Cards line. But it was no dice for my two nominated player card selections, Stefan Savic and Harry Maguire. And that’s despite Savic seemingly trying to talk himself into the ref’s book by disputing almost every decision (the same could be said for Cristiano Ronaldo).

Watch out for more cards in the 2nd Leg at Old Trafford on 15th March.

It’s the turn of the Europa League and Europa Conference League today. And with these ties all being decisive 2nd Legs, we can anticipate some scoreboard chaos over the course of the evening…

The action kicks off from 5.45pm, with BT Sport offering extensive coverage across their TV channels and online platforms.

Bodo/Glimt v Celtic

Europa Conference League, 5.45pm

Bodo/Glimt lead 3-1 from the 1st Leg.

Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt won 3-1 at Celtic Park last week. Franking their surprise-package form from the Group stage, where they beat tournament favourites Roma 6-1, and also threatened frequently in a 2-2 draw in Italy.

With Celtic two goals down, and Away Goals no longer a factor in the UEFA competitions, the Scottish league leaders have little choice but to go for it today. The Hoops are the top scorers in the Scottish Premiership this season, so they certainly have the tools to get the goals needed. But whether they can stop the hosts from netting is a different story altogether. The artificial pitch could make things interesting, too…

Standout stats:

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Celtic’s last 9 games in all competitions 

• Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in each of Celtic’s last 5

Prices:

• Over 2.5 Goals is 1/2 (1.5) with William Hill, 4/9 (1.44) in general

• Over 3.5 Goals is 6/5 (2.2) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 23/20 (2.15) BetVictor, 11/10 (2.1) in general

Randers FC v Leicester City

Europa Conference League, 5.45pm

Leicester lead 4-1 from the 1st Leg.

Leicester look to have more than one foot in the next round, thanks to a 4-1 win at home seven days ago. But the Foxes have been far from convincing in defence this season, and more goals could be on the cards for this trip to Denmark. They don’t have a Premier League fixture to prepare for this weekend, so that could help the cause in terms of the quality of the starting XI…

Standout stats:

• Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 15 of Leicester’s last 18 games in all comps 

• Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 5 of Leicester’s last 8

Brendan Rodgers’ side are the no.1 team in the Premier League for away Over 2.5 Goals payouts this season (82%) – and haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their last 13 on the road in all comps. In fact, in each of their last 8 trips, Leicester have conceded 2+ goals.

Prices:

• Over 2.5 Goals is 7/10 (1.7) with Bet365, 8/13 (1.62) in general

• Over 3.5 Goals is 7/4 (2.75) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365 and BetVictor

Rangers v Borussia Dortmund

Europa League, 8pm

Rangers lead 4-2 from the 1st Leg.

This one was first on my list for a high-goals contender today. Over the past week we’ve looked more than once at Dortmund’s exceptional Goals form, with the net frequently bulging – at both ends of the pitch. As with Celtic today, the German side have no choice but to attack in search of goals, trailing 4-2 from a surprise 1st-Leg defeat at home….

Standout stats:

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 17 of Dortmund’s last 18 games in all comps 

• Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 12 of those last 18 Dortmund games

• 5 of Rangers’ last 7 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals – with 3 of those also going Over 3.5

Prices:

• Over 2.5 Goals is 1/2 (1.5) with Bet365, 4/9 (1.44) and 2/5 (1.4) in general

• Over 3.5 Goals is 13/10 (2.3) with BetVictor, 5/4 (2.25) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 11/10 (2.1) in general

‘Over’ to you…

The stats and form are clear here, as are the ‘scripts’ for Celtic and Dortmund. We should go for Goals in these games…

There are various betting options and ways of combining the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 Goals prices listed above. I’m putting up two trebles:

The Over 2.5 Goals treble pays 13/5 (3.6).

And for a smaller stake (eg. 0.5 point), the Over 3.5 Goals treble comes in at a top price of just over 12/1.

Borussia Dortmund’s recent score-lines in the German Bundesliga:

View team results and stats for 17 leagues at:
www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for tonight…

UEFA Europa League/ Conference League

Bodo/Glimt v Celtic, 5.45pm
Randers FC v Leicester City, 5.45pm
Rangers v Borussia Dortmund, 8pm

Total Goals:

• Treble: Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/5 (3.6) Bet365, William Hill

• Treble: Over 3.5 Goals @ 12.6/1 (13.6) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 11.98/1 (12.98) BetVictor

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Weekend Preview.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues