Thursday 15th April 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Europa League quarter finals, 2nd legs…
• Slavia Prague v Arsenal…
• Villarreal v Dinamo Zagreb… 

Europa League tonight – 1st Card contender at 25/1…

Emre Can didn’t get booked last night, but his old club Liverpool went to form on the corners…

Trailing 3-1 from the 1st leg against Real Madrid, the Reds could only manage a 0-0 draw in the 2nd leg at Anfield. Jurgen Klopp’s side bossed the corners, 11-3:

• Liverpool have now won the Most Corners in 11 games in a row at Anfield in all competitions. Covering -1 and -2 Corner Handicaps on each occasion

Real Madrid’s most-carded player of 2020/21 stayed true to type, with Casemiro picking up a yellow card in the first half. See below for cards contenders for tonight’s Europa League action.

Madrid’s 3-1 aggregate victory means our 12/1 Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places) picks for the Champions League are now through to the semi finals, and down to 4/1 to go all the way…

Zinedine Zidane’s team are priced as slight favourites to get past Chelsea in the semi final, at 4/5 (1.8) To Qualify.

• Real Madrid are unbeaten in 14 games in all comps

• The semi final 1st legs begin on Tuesday 27th April

The Outright book…

As well as Real Madrid in the Champions League, our 2020/21 Outright book also includes Southampton at 28/1 or 25/1 Each Way for the FA Cup (1/2 odds 1-2 places)…

Southampton are in the semi finals at Wembley this weekend. The Saints take on Leicester – the team that famously humiliated them 9-0 in the Premier League back in October 2019. Since then, Southampton have won 2-1 at Leicester, and then lost 2-0 at the King Power this season.

The bookies make our team around 13/8 (2.63) To Qualify for the final. With the Saints trading at 10/1 to lift the cup.

• Leicester v Southampton is on Sunday, 6.30pm – BT Sport

In the English Football League (EFL), we have two teams pushing for promotion…

In League One, we’re on Blackpool at 14/1 (15.0) for Promotion. That bet is currently trading at 7/2 (4.5). The Seasiders are unbeaten in 15 games (most recent first): DDWWDWWDDWDDWWW.

• Blackpool are at home v Sunderland on Saturday

League One – top of the table:

In League Two, we have Morecambe gunning for us on two fronts. The Shrimps are in the book at 50/1 Each Way for the title, with a 1/4 odds place payout still very much a live chance for a Top 3 finish. And at 9/1 (10.0) for Promotion – which is now at 2/1 (3.0) in general.

• Morecambe are at home v Oldham on Saturday

League Two – top of the table:

Slavia Prague v Arsenal

Aggregate score: 1-1
8pm – BT Sport

It’s the Europa League tonight, with the quarter final 2nd legs. This one is poised for a potential upset, with Slavia Prague gaining a precious away goal at Arsenal. The Czech side have already knocked out Leicester and Rangers. They’re looking for a UK hat-trick here. Prague are 7/4 (2.75) To Qualify.

I reckon this one could see some Cards & Bookings activity. Referee Cuneyt Cakir had his cards out at the weekend, flashing six yellows and a red in the Turkish league.

The 1st leg at the Emirates only produced one yellow card, but things could be different here, with a place in the semi finals on the line…

Prague’s 2nd leg at Rangers got nasty at the end, and finished with seven yellows and two reds. The 2nd leg at Leicester delivered five yellows. Arsenal’s 2nd leg against Olympiakos in the last round saw four yellows, and a sending off. Bet365 have set the Under/ Over Total Cards line at 4.5 tonight.

The Player Cards markets have provided some profitable angles for us recently. The go-to man for Arsenal is central midfielder, Granit Xhaka. He provided us with a 21/10 (3.1) winner in the North London derby last month. The Swiss tackler has been booked three times in his last eight games in all comps for club & country. Xhaka is in with the favourites tonight, at 23/10 (3.3) to be Carded with Skybet and William Hill.

I could certainly see Granit getting involved. But for a bigger price, Slavia Prague centre-back David Zima catches the eye at 9/2 (5.5) and 4/1 (5.0) to be Booked. And a standout 25/1 with Bet365 to be the 1st Player Booked. He’s more like 10/1 elsewhere.

The 20-year-old Czech defender has been booked in each of his last three Europa League appearances: against Arsenal in the 1st leg, in the 1st leg v Rangers (suspended for the 2nd leg), and in the 2nd leg at Leicester.

And on the 1st Card form, Zima has this eye-catching stat:

• 4 of Zima’s last 5 yellow cards in all comps have paid out as the 1st Card of the game

Zima also got himself carded while on the bench for the Czech Republic in their 1-0 defeat at Wales last month – but that doesn’t count for betting purposes.

Villarreal v Dinamo Zagreb

Aggregate score: 1-0
8pm – BT Sport

A straight-up angle for this one, with the back-the-best tactic coming into play for Villarreal’s top scorer, Gerard Moreno…

The 29-year-old Spain forward is having a great season, with 19 goals in La Liga. Only Lionel Messi has scored more.

• Moreno has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 of his last 10 starts for Villarreal

Moreno is chief penalty taker, too. Firing in from the spot on no fewer than 11 occasions already this season.

Most firms have Gerard odds-on to score tonight, with some as short as 8/13 (1.62). The standout odds of 6/5 (2.2) and 11/10 (2.1) look good.

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Slavia Prague v Arsenal

• PLAYER TO BE BOOKED: David Zima @ 9/2 Boylesports, 4/1 Bet365. 1ST PLAYER BOOKED: David Zima @ 25/1 Bet365

Villarreal v Dinamo Zagreb

• ANYTIME SCORER: Gerard Moreno @ 6/5 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/10 Bet365

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Weekend Preview.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues