Thursday 23rd May 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Manchester rematch at Wembley…
• Standout stats…
• Player picks…

FA Cup Final: Bet Builder stats at 28/1…

The less said about Bayer Leverkusen last night, the better…

The newly-crowned German league champions looked like a team who had played 51 games. Xabi Alonso’s record-breaking side were finally beaten, for the first time all season.

Atalanta ran out very worthy 3-0 winners in the Europa League Final. And we must make do with a 10/1 place payout from our 20/1 Each Way bet on Leverkusen for the cup.

Across the Leagues member Ian C shares his frustration, but remains philosophical…

“The one rule of betting that I ignored last night. Whenever I hedge it turns out I didn’t need to and whenever I don’t it turns out I should have. It’s almost like you guarantee the original bet wins by hedging. C’est la vie!”

We have another cup final to look forward to this weekend. And for the second year running, the FA Cup showpiece at Wembley is an all-Manchester affair…

FA Cup Final – Man City v Man Utd

Saturday 3pm, BBC One/ ITV1

Man City won last year’s final, 2-1. Since then, the Etihad club have posted two more wins over rivals United, winning 3-0 away and 3-1 at home in the Premier League this season.

While United continue to flounder in the post-Ferguson years. Pep Guardiola’s City side have just racked up a record fourth consecutive English league title.

• The Manchester derby head-to-head currently stands at 6 wins from the last 7 meetings for City in all competitions

And if we look at the other trends in this fixture. The Corners and Cards stats tell us that…

• 6 of the last 9 Manchester derbies have gone Under 3.5 Cards. As have 4 of the last 6 FA Cup Finals in normal time. Although it’s worth noting that last year’s City v United final produced a total of 4 Yellow Cards (40 Booking Points)

• Saturday’s Wembley referee is Andy Madley. Under 3.5 Cards has paid out in 5 of his last 6 games (Premier League)

• Man Utd have got the Most Cards in 5 of their last 6 clashes with City. In the Premier League this season, Man City were the best-behaved team overall. They finished ranked 20th from 20 teams for Most Booking Pts payouts (just 5 out of 38 games), and also received the fewest number of Total Yellow Cards in the division

• 7 of the last 10 encounters between City and United have gone Under 10.5 Corners. There were just 6 corners in last season’s final. Although this season’s league meetings produced high totals of 17 and 19 corners

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 7 of their last 8 games against Man Utd. Including dominant 15-2 and 12-7 tallies in the Premier League this term. City have covered a -3 Corner Handicap in 6 of those last 8 Manchester derbies, and in 7 of their last 11 matches in all comps

Some strong stats there. But they come with short prices…

For example, the five bets highlighted in the stats above combine for a Bet Builder with odds of 12/1 at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. While a few other bookies I checked with don’t even offer this particular combo:

Man City to win
Under 3.5 Total Cards
Most Cards/ Booking Points: Man Utd
Under 10.5 Total Corners
Most Corners/ Corners Match Bet: Man City

And if we look at the price for a standalone bet on Man City -3 Corner Handicap. The bookies’ general line asks one corner more than that of the favourites, with City at -4. You can find the City -3 Corner Handicap if you shop around, but it’s going to be odds-on. Boylesports have this option at 8/13 (1.62), for example. While it’s 3/5 (1.6) at BetVictor, and 8/15 (1.53) at William Hill.

Not for the first time in a big match like this, we’re going to turn to the Player markets for more enticing prices and opportunities…

Player picks – Bet Builder…

This top-man based Bet Builder pays 28/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook:

Anytime Scorer: Erling Haaland
Anytime Scorer: Phil Foden
Player Shown a Card: Casemiro
Player Shown a Card: Bruno Fernandes

That combo sticks with the City theme in terms of backing two of their star men to score. And on the United side, taking a pair of Red Devils to go in the ref’s book…

• Erling Haaland has been Premier League Top Scorer, 2 seasons running. Phil Foden finished joint-4th in the 2023/24 standings – and has found the net in 5 of his last 9 appearances. City have scored 6 goals across 2 clashes with Man Utd this season – and Haaland and Foden have got all of them (3 each)

• Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro were United’s most-carded players in the league this season. Casemiro has been booked in his last 2 games, and could make it a hat-trick on Saturday, in what may well be his final outing for the club. United captain Fernandes was booked on the last day of the season at Brighton, and has got 2 yellows in 5 starts against Man City

Bet Builder coupons are also available with the likes of Skybet, BetVictor, Bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Betway, Boylesports (markets may vary).

Man City Top Scorers – Premier League 2023/24:

Man United Most Carded Players – Premier League 2023/24:

View all our stats for 17 leagues at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Man City v Man Utd – Bet Builder:

Anytime Scorer: Erling Haaland
Anytime Scorer: Phil Foden
Player Shown a Card: Casemiro
Player Shown a Card: Bruno Fernandes

• Bet Builder: 4 legs as listed above @ 28/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 24/1 Skybet (‘BuildABet’), 23/1 BetVictor

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

Have a good weekend, and enjoy the cup final…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues