Wednesday 12th May 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• French Cup semi-final…
• La Liga’s No.1 Most Corners team…
• Win & Both Teams to Score in Serie A…

Midweek mayhem at 16/1…

There’s a busy fixture list in Europe this evening, and I’ve got a stack of standout stats for you…

We didn’t land on a big-odds Half Time/ Full Time comeback yesterday, although Man Utd conceded first yet again, and both Scottish Championship Playoffs went to extra time. Maybe we’ll see some more drama from PSG tonight…

Montpellier v PSG

French Cup – Coupe de France
8pm

This cup semi-final match-up has red-card potential:

• PSG have had a player sent off in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions

• 3 of the last 4 meetings between Montpellier and PSG have produced red cards. With all 3 going to Montpellier players, including 2 straight reds to goalkeepers (Jonas Omlin and Dimitry Bertaud). Omlin is first-choice ‘keeper, but missed Montpellier’s last game through injury, with Bertaud lining up in his place

Not many bookmakers are getting involved here – at least not as I write this afternoon. And Oddschecker isn’t much use, only showing the Sending Off in Match options with Unibet and Sporting Index Fixed Odds. I’ve shopped about, and the best prices are 3/1+ (4.0+), with Marathonbet and Skybet.

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad

Spain, La Liga
9pm

Leaders Atletico are odds-on to make another big step towards the title. They’re also odds-on for the Most Corners – but Sociedad’s stats suggest a bet on the away team is the way to go here:

• The stats on our website show that Real Sociedad are the No.1 team in La Liga for Most Corners bets this season – with a 71% overall strike-rate. That record improves to 82% on the road

• In comparison, Atletico have landed the Corners Match Bet in just 7 of their 17 home league games this season (41%)

Sociedad are the value here, at 9/5 (2.8) and 7/4 (2.75).

Serie A win booster…

There’s a full midweek programme in the Italian top-flight, and I’m returning to the Serie A ‘Win & BTTS’ theme that we flagged up a couple of weeks back…

Three of the top-rated Win & Both Teams to Score sides are in action this evening, all playing at home, and I like their chances of racking up some more goal-filled victories:

• Atalanta v Benevento (7.45pm). Atalanta are joint-top of our Serie A stats for Win & BTTS, with 13 of their 21 wins paying out in this goals-at-both-ends market. That includes a 5-2 victory on Sunday. Benevento have lost 4 of their last 5, with 3 of them seeing loads of goals: 1-3, 2-4, 5-3  

• Inter Milan v Roma (7.45pm). Champions Inter are joint-1st with Atalanta for Win & Both Teams to Score results. They won 5-1 on Saturday. Roma have lost their last 4 away games in all comps, including 6-2, 3-2, and 3-1 defeats

• Lazio v Parma (7.45pm). Lazio have racked up 10 x Win & BTTS outcomes this season, and 7 of them have come at home. Their last 4 home games against teams below them in the table have produced winning score-lines of: 4-3, 5-3, 2-1, 3-2. Parma have lost 6 in a row, but managed to get on the scoresheet in 5 of them: 2-5, 3-4, 3-1, 4-3, 1-3

A match win treble on Atalanta, Inter & Lazio tonight pays just 6/4 (2.5).

In comparison, the Win & Both Teams to Score hat-trick comes out at 16/1 or 14/1.

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

• Montpellier v PSG. Sending Off in the Match @ 16/5 (4.2) Marathonbet, 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, 11/4 (3.75) William Hill

• Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad. Most Corners: Sociedad @ 9/5 (2.8) Boylesports, 7/4 (2.75) Unibet, Bet365 (Corners Match Bet)

• Serie A – 3 games listed above. Treble. Win & Both Teams to Score: Atalanta, Inter Milan & Lazio @ 16/1 Betway, 14/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports

I’ll be back tomorrow with more stats and analysis for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues