Tuesday 6th April 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• A big night for Morecambe…
• Champions League quarter finals…
• Haaland hard to ignore… 

Real Madrid v Liverpool – two ways to play Mane…

Good afternoon. I hope you had an enjoyable Easter weekend. I made the most of Doing Things Outdoors. No BBQs yet, but I managed plenty of walking, and a bottled ale on a friend’s patio.

Rules are there to be broken…

Across the Leagues member Peter S had a decent Win & Both Teams to Score from Portsmouth on Friday:

“For the second weekend running, I followed some of your advice. As a Pompey fan of over 60 years I have one rule ie. Never bet on my own team until 2 days ago when your recommendation was "Portsmouth to win and both to score at 5/2". So my bet was placed and I had to wait until 93 minute for the opposition to score…”

Portsmouth won the game in question, 2-1. With Rochdale popping up with that late consolation goal.

Following that up with a 1-0 victory at Wigan on Easter Monday, Pompey have now won four in a row under Danny Cowley. And they’ve all been by exactly one goal: 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, and 1-0.

• Portsmouth’s 2-1 win over Rochdale contributed to a profitable 2 out of 3 Win & Both Teams to Score results in last weekend’s self-styled ‘win booster’ Trixie, With an 8/1 or 9/1 double, thanks to Bayer Leverkusen beating Schalke, 2-1. In the other game featured, Watford beat Sheffield Wednesday, 1-0. The win treble on Pompey, Leverkusen & Watford was 2/1

• Got a weekend football story to share? Drop me a line at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

The Shrimps and the Seasiders…

It was a good Easter for our 14/1 League One Promotion picks Blackpool. The Seasiders won 2-0 at Swindon and then 4-1 v Gillingham. Neil Critchley’s side are top of our 5-game Form table in League One, with 13 points from their last handful of matches: WWDWW.

The Tangerines are now trading at between 3/1 and 4/1 for Promotion.

It was also a good weekend for Blackpool forward Jerry Yates. Our 33/1 Each Way outsider for League One Top Goalscorer, Yates knocked in three goals over those two Bank Holiday games. Pushing himself into the Top 4 places, on 18 goals, increasing the chance of a 1/4 odds Each Way payout for us.

A big night for Morecambe…

In League Two, we’re supporting Morecambe on the run-in…

The Shrimps are in the book at 50/1 Each Way for the title (1/4 odds 1-3 places). A win tonight at home to second-bottom Southend would take Morecambe up to third spot, and into the automatic promotion places.

We’re also on Derek Adams’ team at 9/1 for Promotion. That bet is now 2/1 at best.

With every team still having at least half-a-dozen games left to play, it’s looking like a very tight promotion & playoff race in League Two. We have a big-price contender in the mix…

• The top 3 go up automatically. With 4th – 7th going into the playoffs

Here’s the top half of the League Two table:

Champions League quarter finals…

The Champions League quarter finals start this week. This evening’s two 1st Leg ties are:

• Manchester City v Borussia Dortmund

• Real Madrid v Liverpool

Both games kick off at 8pm, live on BT Sport.

Man City v Borussia Dortmund

We can’t mention this game without talking about Erling Braut Haaland…

The 20-year-old goal machine is the hottest property in football right now. According to Skybet, Man City are the 6/4 (2.5) favourites to sign him this summer. I don’t think Haaland needs any additional ‘shop window’ incentive to perform tonight. This guy is the real deal, and plays to win.

An away goal for Dortmund would be massive. And with City being the big favourites, this match gives us a rare chance to back Haaland to score at a decent odds-against price. Most weeks, he’s Evens (2.0) at best, and usually odds-on. The Norwegian is 2/1+ (3.0+) with a few brave firms today. Don’t miss it.

• Haaland is top scorer in the Champions League this season, with 10 goals in 6 games. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in all 6, scoring twice in each of his last 4 appearances in the competition
• Haaland has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 9 of Dortmund’s last 12 away games in all comps

If Haaland does score tonight, he better not over-celebrate. If he gets booked, he’ll miss the 2nd Leg.

Real Madrid v Liverpool

This one takes place at Real Madrid’s B-team ground, with the Bernabeu undergoing reconstruction work this season. Despite the small-stadium feel and the lack of fans, this is of course a massive European fixture…

The last time these clubs met was the Champions League final in 2018. Madrid won 3-1 that night, Sergio Ramos ‘took out’ Mo Salah, and the Egyptian went off injured and in tears. There’s no Ramos tonight, with the Madrid defender out injured himself.

Scorers & Cards…

If you want a straight-up winning-streak stat for tonight’s game, then here’s one:

• Karim Benzema has scored in 7 games in a row for Real Madrid. He’s 5/4 (2.25) to score Anytime  

For Liverpool, Mo Salah is also around 5/4 or shorter – he’s scored in five of his last seven Champions League appearances.

Diogo Jota has muscled in on the Liverpool front three of Salah, Sadio Mane & Roberto Firmino this season. Jota has found the net in each of his last four games for club & country. The Portuguese attacker is 2/1 (3.0) and shorter today.

Two ways to play Mane…

Sadio Mane has popped up in our notes a few times for Liverpool this season. In particular, he’s on my radar as a potential scorer and/ or carded player in the big games…

• Mane has scored or been carded in 8 of his last 13 Champions League starts

In the last round, the Senegal forward scored in both legs against RB Leipzig. In the Champions League final defeat to Real Madrid in 2018, Mane received the only yellow card of the game.

Other notable players To Be Carded this evening:

• Casemiro is Madrid’s most-booked man this season. He’s only got one yellow in his last 10 games in all comps though. He’s a 6/4 (2.5) favourite for a Card here

• Liverpool’s on-loan centre-back Ozan Kablak is around the 2/1 mark (3.0). The 21-year-old was booked in his first 3 games for the Reds, but since then he hasn’t received any in 5 games

• Fabinho (5 yellows) and Thiago (4) are Liverpool’s most-booked players in the Premier League this season. They’re available at top prices of 2/1 and 3/1 tonight, respectively. Both are yet to be carded in this Champions League campaign

Mane is the man for me. He’s available at a standout 12/5 (3.4) to score Anytime, and around that price or better to be Carded.

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for tonight…

Man City v Borussia Dortmund

• Anytime Scorer: Erling Braut Haaland @ 12/5 (3.4) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 23/10 (3.3) Betway, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Real Madrid v Liverpool

• Anytime Scorer: Sadio Mane @ 12/5 (3.4) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 23/10 (3.3) Betfred, 9/4 (3.25) Boylesports, 11/5 (3.2) Betway

• To Be Carded: Sadio Mane @ 11/4 (3.75) Betfred, 13/5 (3.6) Betway, 5/2 (3.5) Skybet, William Hill

I’ll be back tomorrow, with stats & analysis for Bayern Munich v PSG and Porto v Chelsea.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues