Tuesday 28th December 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Championship continues to deliver…
• Half Time/ Full Time contender…
• Picks & analysis for Leicester v Liverpool…

Set-piece potential for Liverpool tonight…

I reckon we’re getting close to landing a big Half Time/ Full Time winner. In 6 of the last 7 games in which I’ve flagged up the potential for a HT/ FT scoreboard turnaround, one team has gone in ahead at the break. With 5 of those seeing one side precisely one goal up at the break. Meaning the bet has been ‘on’ – with the potential for a second-half comeback…

The fightback doesn’t always transpire, of course. But we’re certainly hunting in the right places. From our one featured game that survived the Boxing Day fixture list, QPR went in 0-1 down at half time at home v Bournemouth. Rangers staged a scrappy late onslaught, but it wasn’t to be this time. When we do next land one of those HT/ FT turnarounds, the big odds will make up for the ‘nearly’ stories, and then some.

The Wild West…

We focused on the Championship with those latest attempts in the Half Time/ Full Time market. And were right to do so. Despite just 4 out of 12 matches surviving coronavirus on the Boxing Day schedule, the English second-tier still produced yet another HT/ FT result. For the 9th round of games in a row…

Huddersfield were the team at it this time. Coming from 1-2 down at the break v Blackpool. Winning 3-2 at full time, after the visitors were reduced to 10 men in the second half. That HT Blackpool/ FT Huddersfield result was a 28/1 shot.

As I said last week: you could do worse this festive period than aim a few shots at landing a big HT/ FT winner in the Championship…

• So far this season, there have now been 25 x HT/ FT comebacks in the Championship (9% of games). There are still 278 fixtures to come

• In comparison, the entire 2020/21 season produced 26 of those results. And the season before, just 22. The five-year average for these outcomes in the Championship lies between 4% and 5% of games

I called the Championship the ‘Wild West.’ Everyone’s out to get everyone here. Expect the unexpected. We saw another case in point yesterday. Bottom-of-the-table Derby County beat promotion-chasing West Brom (4th). The upset was 5/1+.

25/1+ for more excitement…

As I write, 7 of the 12 midweek Championship games are still on. Here’s my idea of a HT/ FT contender from Wednesday’s programme:

Coventry v Millwall

This is 10th v 12th in the Championship table. Coventry have won just one of their last 5 games, while Millwall have just one win in 6. Both teams are in keen need of the points, then…

The stats on our website show that Coventry have a 64% home record for Both Teams to Score (7 games out of 11). And Millwall are ranked no.1 in the division for goals at both ends (68%). That bodes well for an end-to-end encounter here.

But here’s the real eye-catcher:

• Coventry are something like masters of the comeback at home this season. The Sky Blues have delivered on the full HT/ FT turnaround in a remarkable 4 out of 11 league games at the Coventry Building Society Arena. Coming from 0-1 down on 3 occasions, to win 2-1, 2-1, and 4-1. And fighting back from 1-2 down, to win 3-2

For their part, Millwall let a 0-1 lead slip in their last away game, going on to lose 2-1 at full time. And the Lions had a 2-1 comeback win of their own back in October, overcoming a half-time deficit v Stoke.

Odds of 25/1+ and 33/1+ catch the eye for the two HT/ FT comeback options in tomorrow’s game – HT Coventry/ FT Millwall, and vice versa. A split stake is the call.

Leicester v Liverpool tonight – set-piece chances…

Leicester v Liverpool looks a high-goals contender in the Premier League tonight (8pm, Amazon Prime Video). Leicester have got several players missing through injury and coronavirus. And that might strengthen the case for a big score-line here…

• Leicester’s last 6 Premier League games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Including a 6-3 defeat at Man City on Boxing Day

• 5 of Liverpool’s 7 games in all competitions this month have gone Over 2.5 Goals. With a 2-2 draw at Tottenham and a 3-1 win v Newcastle their last two results in the league

• There’s a history of goals when these clubs meet. They played out a 3-3 draw in the EFL Cup last week. In the Premier League, 9 of the last 10 encounters between Leicester & Liverpool have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals

If you don’t mind short odds, then the standard Total Goals market is the place for you. Over 2.5 Goals is no better than 4/11 (1.36). And the higher Over 3.5 Goals line is also odds-on, at 4/5 (1.8).

Digging a little deeper, consider these ‘types of goals’ stats…

• No team in the Premier League has conceded more goals from set pieces than Leicester this season (11)

• Liverpool have scored 10 times from set pieces – the highest figure in the Premier League in 2021/22

It’s hard to know which players any manager will be able to call on right now. For Liverpool, top scorer Mo Salah is odds-on to score Anytime, at 4/6 (1.67) at best (Betfred, Boylesports).

A more intriguing angle for me is the record for headed goals:

• No player in the Premier League has scored more headed goals this season than Diogo Jota (3)

• Overall, the Liverpool attacker has delivered on Anytime Scorer bets in 6 of his last 8 games in all comps

The Portuguese forward has scored in 2 out of 2 appearances for Liverpool against tonight’s opponents, including when coming off the bench in the EFL Cup game last week. For old club Wolves, Jota scored a hat-trick in a 4-3 win v Leicester back in 2019.

Jota also has a knack of scoring first for the Reds…

• When in the starting XI, Diogo Jota has scored in 10 different games for Liverpool this season. 7 of those strikes have been his team’s First Goal of the game

Again, if you don’t mind short prices – then this guy is one to follow, at slightly bigger prices than star man Salah. Jota is a best price of 11/10 (2.1) to score Anytime. Bet365 are a top-price 5/1 (6.0) for First Goalscorer, with most other firms closer to 7/2 (4.5).

For bigger odds…

Red defenders with an eye for goal…

With Leicester potentially on the ropes here, and Liverpool joint-top scorers in the Premier League this season (level on 50 Goals For with Man City, but with City having played one game more). There’s a strong case for more than one Liverpool player to get on the score-sheet here.

And with the Foxes’ defensive vulnerabilities in mind, for bigger odds than the strikers, how about this top-class defender for the away side…

• Marauding wing-back Trent Alexander-Arnold has scored in 2 of his last 8 games for Liverpool, and looks in the form of his life right now. He’s a free-kick and long-range specialist, too

Alexander-Arnold can be backed at a top price of 7/1 to score Anytime. And 20/1+ to score First. At those attractive odds, it’s worth covering both options (split stake).

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

COVENTRY v MILLWALL

Championship, Wednesday – 7.45pm

• Half Time/ Full Time: Coventry/ Millwall @ 50/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 40/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports, 33/1+ elsewhere

AND

• Half Time/ Full Time: Millwall/ Coventry @ 30/1 BetVictor, 28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 25/1 elsewhere 

LEICESTER v LIVERPOOL

Premier League, TODAY 8pm – Amazon Prime Video

• Anytime Scorer: Trent Alexander-Arnold @ 7/1 (8.0) Betfred, 13/2 (7.5) MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet, 11/2 (6.5) William Hill and in general

AND

• First Goalscorer: Trent Alexander-Arnold @ 22/1 Betfred, Boylesports, 20/1 in general

P.S
Don’t forget your members-only Across the Leagues website is fully-stocked with all the latest form and stats. The site is a bespoke tool, allowing you to discover, at a glance, the top-performing bets, teams, and players, in a variety of betting categories and markets. Including Match Results, Goals, Corners, and Cards. For 17 different leagues, and over 300 clubs. With home v away Head-2-Head comparisons for every game. Throughout the festive period, the website will continue to update automatically, as the results and data pour in. Log-in with your personal password at: www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

I’ll be back by email on Friday, 31st December, when we’ll be taking a look at the New Year’s weekend fixtures.

Enjoy the festivities this week. And enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues