Wednesday 20th April 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Atletico Madrid v Granada, 6pm…
• Newcastle v Crystal Palace, 7.45pm…
• Everton v Leicester, 7.45pm…

Standout opportunities for tonight – including a 28/1 shot…

A Liverpool midfielder got the First Card last night. Substitute Naby Keita came on in the 80th minute, and got booked six minutes later. To be honest, there wasn’t much of a midfield ‘battle’ for Liverpool to win, and my Card pick Fabinho never looked like getting in much trouble with the ref on the night.

In terms of the odds-on prices that I mentioned yesterday, Liverpool to beat Man Utd was probably one of the least stressful home win bets you could have had recently. Although odds of 4/11 (1.36) for that one didn’t excite me much. Mo Salah continued his excellent scoring form against Man Utd, bagging two in the 4-0 win, ending in his eight-game ‘drought.’

Salah was around 5/6 (1.83) to score last night, and that’s about as good as you’ll get for another top scorer this evening… Karim Benzema is the leading man in La Liga this season with 25 goals. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in eight of his last 10 appearances for Real Madrid. Including the winning goal at Sevilla on Sunday, a game in which Madrid cam back from 2-0 down at half time to win 2-3.

This evening, Real go to Osasuna (8.30pm). Benzema is a best price of 5/6 with Bet365, and shorter than that in most places.

Onto the Corners stats now…

I wasn’t far off picking out an audacious ‘Corners Correct Score’ yesterday. The Total Corners tally between Liverpool and Man Utd settled at 11 corners. My pick was 10. The result went pretty much bang-on the 10-match average between those clubs then, which stood at 10.7 corners per game.

The decisive corner kick came just 30 seconds before the final whistle. You can’t get much closer to a 15/2 winner (!).

There was also another corner awarded right at the whistle, but it wasn’t taken, so doesn’t count for betting purposes. But that might explain why the BBC reported the corners total as 12, while other stats sources such as our own website have it down as 11. William Hill paid out on 11 corners.

Standout stats & prices for tonight…

There’s a decent flurry of midweek fixtures this week. Including four more Premier League games this evening, and some of the top European leagues in action, too. That includes Spain, with the aforementioned Osasuna v Real Madrid match. And Atletico Madrid are playing as well, at home v Granada (6pm)…

Will Stefan Savic get carded AGAIN? The ill-tempered Atletico defender gave us a 2/1+ (3.0+) payout in the Champions League last week. He was then booked in Sunday’s 2-1 win over Espanyol. That match also saw Diego Simeone’s side have a player sent off, for the second time in less than a week.

• Savic has now been booked in 5 of his last 6 league games – and in 7 of the last 9. With that prolific form in mind, it’s something of a surprise to see Bet365 offering odds of 3/1 today. Skybet, William Hill, Betway, and BetVictor are all going just over 2/1, too. At these odds and in this fiery form, Savic is worth keeping on the bet list

In the Premier League, it could also pay to follow-up on the home/ away Most Corners stats that served us well for Newcastle v Leicester last weekend. Newcastle are at home again today, v Crystal Palace. And Leicester are on the road again, this time travelling Everton…

• Newcastle have been out-cornered in 7 of their last 8 home league games

• The last 4 teams to visit St James’ Park have all landed the Corners Match Bet: Leicester (corners score 3-5), Wolves (1-2), Brighton (4-7), and Aston Villa (3-6)

• Leicester have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 6 away games

And taking in the respective opponents’ form:

• Palace have landed the Corners Match Bet in 3 of their last 5 away games

• Everton have been out-cornered in 5 of their last 7 Premier League games, including 3 of their last 4 at home

With that stats-form in mind, odds-against prices for both Crystal Palace and Leicester standout in the Most Corners markets today.

Set-piece vulnerabilities present a 28/1 chance…

At the other end of the pitch at Goodison Park tonight, Leicester’s dodgy record for defending set pieces gives us the opportunity to target some big odds…

• Leicester have conceded 16 goals from Set Pieces this season – alongside Leeds, that’s the joint-worst record in the division

• 32% of goals conceded by Leicester in the Premier League 2021/22 have come from Set Pieces (16 out of 50 Goals Against)

With Everton up against it in the relegation scrap, they’ll take goals wherever they can get them…

From corners, crosses, and free kicks, Toffees’ centre-back Michael Keane is one to watch as an aerial threat. He’s scored twice so far this campaign, both at home – against Burnley, and Leeds. Top prices of 28/1 to score First and 10/1 to score Anytime make Keane an attractive outside bet here, against a Foxes backline that is no great shakes at defending from balls delivered in the air.

TODAY’S PICKS

I’ll leave the individual staking decisions up to you. The markets & bets I’ve identified in today’s analysis are:

Atletico Madrid v Granada

Spanish La Liga, 6pm – Premier Sports

• Player to be Carded: Stefan Savic @ 3/1 (4.0) Bet365 (called ‘To be Booked’), 23/10 (3.3) Betway, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, William Hill, 21/10 (3.1) BetVictor

Newcastle v Crystal Palace

Premier League, 7.45pm

• Most Corners (or Corners Match Bet): Crystal Palace @ 13/8 (2.63) Skybet, 8/5 (2.6) Betway, Unibet, 29/20 (2.45) BetVictor, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, 13/10 (2.3) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/4 (2.25) William Hill

Everton v Leicester

Premier League, 7.45pm

• Most Corners (or Corners Match Bet): Leicester @ 7/5 (2.4) Unibet, 13/10 (2.3) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, 6/5 (2.2) William Hill

• First Goalscorer: Michael Keane – best prices 28/1 @ Bet365, 25/1 Betfred

• Anytime Scorer: Michael Keane – best prices 10/1 @ Bet365, 9/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues