Thursday 8th April 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• All set up for the 2nd leg…
• 14/1 winner for Mike…
• HT/ FT figures for the Premier League… 

The Half Time/ Full Time hunter…

It’s Kylian Mbappe’s job to score goals. And he certainly did that. Banging in two goals, as PSG shocked Champions League holder Bayern Munich 3-2 on a snowy night in Germany…

The away win was 27/10 (3.7). The PSG 3-2 Correct Score was 28/1. There were five yellow cards in the match. With all to play for in the 2nd leg which is coming up next Tuesday, we could do well to go after the Cards & Bookings prices again.

No card for Mbappe last night. But on Tuesday, we got Sadio Mane in the book for Liverpool. And Across the Leagues member Mike F picked himself out a 14/1 winner on Mane to receive the First Card…

“Another couple of tasty 19-5 & 14-1 winners. The speculative 50-1 Mane red card didn't quite come to fruition but beggars can't be choosers”

Good work, Mike!

• Got something to share? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

The Half Time/ Full Time hunter…

It’s the Europa League quarter finals, 1st legs this evening. None of the four matches really grab me today, and I’m going to wait for the 2nd legs to see if the who-needs-what scripts promise any excitement. Speaking of which…

Last weekend, eight out of 10 Premier League games went Over 2.5 Goals. Including a couple of 3-2 score-lines, a 3-1, and a 5-2. As well as a 2-1 come-from-behind win for Man Utd.

It could pay to look out for some more goal-filled entertainment this weekend…

This season I’ve been tracking Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds in the Premier League. You can read my original piece on the ‘consistency of randomness’ here. We identified a Premier League 10-year-average of 15.8 games per season where a team wins the match having been behind at half time (4.16% of games). With at least 10 such instances in any given season over the past decade.

So far in the 2020/21 campaign, 300 Premier League matches have been played. And eight of them have delivered a HT/ FT comeback. That’s a 2.67% average.

Those eight turnarounds have been:

29th Nov: Southampton 2 Man Utd 3 (HT: 2-0) @ 22/1

5th Dec: West Ham 1 Man Utd 3 (HT: 1-0) @ 25/1

16th Jan: Wolves 2 West Brom 3 (HT: 2-1) @ 50/1

27th Jan: Burnley 3 Aston Villa 2 (HT: 0-1) @ 33/1

2nd Feb: Sheff Utd 2 West Brom 1 (HT: 0-1) @ 28/1

14th Feb: Southampton 1 Wolves 2 (HT: 1-0) @ 33/1

6th Mar: Brighton 1 Leicester 2 (HT: 1-0) @ 33/1

4th Apr: Man Utd 2 Brighton 1 (HT: 0-1) @ 22/1

Man Utd have been involved in three of those games, including a 25/1 winner for us at West Ham back in December. Southampton, Wolves, Brighton, and West Brom all pop up twice in that list.

The 10-year stats tell us that it’s reasonable to expect at least two more HT/ FT flip-flops in the remainder of this season…

And to hit the 15-game average bang on, there would need to be seven such scoreboard reversals from the 80 fixtures still to be played. That’s one for every 11 games – which is almost one per round/ weekend.

As that list above shows, with average odds around 28/1, those helter-skelter games are worth trying to find. Easier said than done, of course. But we’ve done it once already this season.

I’ll be back in the morning, with two Half Time/ Full Time contenders for this weekend’s Premier League fixtures…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues