Tuesday 5th March 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Look out for The Three C’s…
• Bayern Munich v Lazio (agg. 0-1)…
• Real Sociedad v PSG (agg. 0-2)…

The Three C’s – and player picks for tonight…

The Champions League Round of 16 continues this week, with the first batch of 2nd Leg ties…

This is knockout football now – decided on the night, with extra time and penalties if needed. With that added jeopardy and the potential for drama, a reminder of some of our go-to big-odds betting angles for matches and situations like these…

Look out for The Three C’s:

Comebacks – be it aggregate-score, 2nd Leg fightbacks… Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds… high-scoring, end-to-end finishes…

Cards – discipline can go out the window when desperation or frustration sets in, with the prospect of elimination from the biggest club competition in the sport. Red Cards are a distinct possibility…

Centre-backs – and other ‘unlikely scorers’ (see also: defensive midfielders). Big matches are often decided by the star-name strikers… but these kinds of nights also have a habit of producing vital goals from unheralded sources. Think centre-backs going up for set pieces, midfielders picking up the scraps on the edge of the box…

Player picks for tonight…

Champions League, 8pm – TNT Sports:

Real Sociedad v PSG
Bayern Munich v Lazio

• Looking at my notes for this evening’s two games, one price worth a mention is Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane at a standout 9/1 with Bet365 to be carded (frustration could set in…). Harry’s as short as 3/1 elsewhere. It’s not one that I can give you an awful lot of stats evidence for. But just thought I’d mention the price…

For our account bets for tonight, I’m happy on this occasion to stick with a star name to score. And that’s because odds of 6/4 (2.5) for Kylian Mbappe passed the test for me as ‘bigger than I was expecting.’ Mbappe opened the scoring for PSG in their 2-0 win over Real Sociedad in the 1st Leg, and has landed Anytime Scorer bets in seven of his last 10 games.

In the Bayern-Lazio match, with the out-of-form hosts under big pressure to arrest the slump – and trailing the Italian side by a goal to nil from the 1st Leg. Perhaps this will be the night for our recent pick Alessio Romagnoli to pick up another card. The Lazio defender may have a busy night, should Munich go for it.

Romagnoli was booked against AC Milan last Friday night (well done to Across the Leagues member Mike F for bagging himself a winner on that one). The Italian defender has landed Player to be Carded bets in four of his last eight appearances. Odds of 2/1+ are available here…

Win & BTTS picks @ 68/1…

Tuesday nights aren’t just about the Champions League. The English Football League (EFL) is also in action again…

And talking of big-odds angles – I’ve been researching the form and figures for our latest Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) combo…

Three picks for this evening, all 7.45pm kick-offs:

BARNSLEY v Bolton
League One

• Barnsley are the form team in League One, and each of their last 4 victories (and 9 of their last 10 triumphs) have paid out for Win & BTTS. There have been goals at both ends in each of Barnsley’s last 7 league games…

MANSFIELD v MK Dons
League Two

• League Two leaders Mansfield have won 5 of their last 6 games – with their last 2 home outings producing crazy 5-1 and 9-2 score-lines…

MORECAMBE v Crawley
League Two

• There have been goals at both ends in 4 of Morecambe’s last 5 games – and 4 of their last 5 wins have ticked the box for Win & BTTS…

The advice:

A treble on Both Teams to Score in all three games at 18/5 (4.6).

And split a stake four ways across a Trixie on Barnsley, Mansfield & Morecambe for Win & Both Teams to Score (comprising of three doubles, and the 68/1 treble).

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details and staking advice

Real Sociedad v PSG:

• Anytime Scorer: Kylian Mbappe @ 6/4 (2.5) Bet365, 11/8 (2.38) or 5/4 (2.25) in general

Bayern Munich v Lazio:

• Player to be Carded: Alessio Romagnoli @ 13/5 (3.6) Bet365, 5/2 (3.5) LiveScoreBet, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, Unibet, 11/5 (3.2) William Hill

Three EFL games listed above:

• TREBLE. Both Teams to Score in all 3 games @ 18/5 (4.6) Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, 7/2 (4.5) – 3/1 (4.0) in general

• TRIXIE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Barnsley, Mansfield, Morecambe – best odds William Hill (68/1 the treble), BetVictor (67/1), Bet365, Betway (63/1)

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more Champions League stats and selections…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues