Wednesday 11th August 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Chelsea v Villarreal, 8pm…
• Super Cup stats…
• My pick of the prices…

Three angles for the UEFA Super Cup tonight…

Last weekend’s Community Shield match saw FA Cup winners Leicester beat Premier League champions Manchester City, 1-0 at Wembley.

This evening it’s the turn of European cup football’s season ‘curtain-raiser.’ In the shape of the UEFA Super Cup, which pits last season’s Champions League winners against the Europa League holders…

Chelsea v Villarreal is in the match-up, then. And in the interest of sharing, I thought I’d send you a brief email today with my notes and thoughts on this game. Taking a short break from my 2021/22 Premier League preparation, as we get ready for the domestic kick-off this weekend.

Super Cup stats…

Three angles from me for tonight’s Super Cup final:

• The last 3 UEFA Super Cup matches have produced a draw at the end of normal time, and been settled after extra time  

• 5 of the last 6 – and 6 of the last 8 – have gone to extra time or penalties

That makes a pretty good case for a draw this evening. Especially when you consider the possibility of there being a slight lack of intensity, pre-season. And with Chelsea in particular expected to rest several of their busiest star players, namely those that featured in the Euro 2020 final.

When in charge at Sevilla, current Villarreal manager Unai Emery won the Europa League three times between 2014 and 2016. However, Emery has never tasted victory in the Super Cup match.

• The last 6 Super Cup trophy matches have all paid out on Both Teams to Score. And with no 0-0 results in those 5 draws, that ramps up the chances of a score-draw this evening…

Both Teams to Score is priced at 11/10 (2.1).

In the 90-minutes (normal time) Match Result betting, the Draw is 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365, and 13/5 (3.6) in general.

My pick of the prices…

I like the stalemate at 11/4. Along with the top scorer for the underdogs…

No player scored more goals in the Europa League 2020/21 than Gerard Moreno. The Villarreal striker found the net seven times in Europe. The Spaniard was also his club’s top scorer in the league, with 23 goals in 33 appearances.

Only one man scored more goals in La Liga than Moreno last season, and that was Barcelona’s now-departed Lionel Messi.

During that 2020/21 Europa League campaign, we backed Moreno once in the Anytime Scorer market, landing odds of 6/5 (2.2) v Dinamo Zagreb in April. For tonight’s match against Chelsea, he’s available at twice that price with some bookmakers. Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are a top-price 7/2 (4.5).

Three areas identified in this game, then – Both Teams to Score, the Draw, and Moreno to score in normal time. I’m going for the two at the biggest prices…

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Chelsea v Villarreal

UEFA Super Cup
Windsor Park, Belfast – 8pm, BT Sport

• Match Result: DRAW @ 11/4 Bet365, 13/5 in general 

• Anytime Scorer: GERARD MORENO @ 7/2 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 Unibet

I’ll be back on Thursday & Friday, as we get ready for the weekend action, including the start of the Premier League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues