Tuesday 14th June 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• World Cup 2022 Qualifying, Intercontinental Playoff…
• Costa Rica v New Zealand, 7pm…
• The main men up front – and an 18/1 Scorecast…

Tonight: the final place at the World Cup…

Good afternoon. The sun is shining. The forecast is good. As many have pointed out, if this was a normal World Cup year, then right now we’d be gearing up for a summer of pub-garden excitement...

However, we do not live in ‘normal’ times. After last year’s delayed and somewhat surreal mid/ post-pandemic UEFA Euro 2020. The 2022 headline act is the FIFA World Cup. This World Cup comes in its correct year, at least (unlike the Euros). But the time slot is all over the place…

Qatar 2022 will be a winter World Cup. The tournament is scheduled for 21st November – 18th December. Yes, that’s slap-bang in the middle of the Premier League & Football League season (and most other high-profile domestic leagues, for that matter).

On the horizon…

As golf is finding out at the moment, keeping politics out of sport is easier said than done. A World Cup in Qatar certainly doesn’t come without controversy. My job is to cover this event as a betting heat – and that’s what I’ll be doing. Once the first ball is kicked this November, we’ll be all about the football, the stats, the prices, and the standout betting opportunities, every day.

Between now and kick-off, you & I will also be on the lookout for any early-bird value and betting angles in the ante-post World Cup markets. I don’t expect the Tournament Winner prices to fluctuate much between now and November, but the Top Goalscorer list might throw up some interesting propositions, for example.

And of course, before the eyes of the football world turn to Qatar, we have the new 2022/23 season kicking off in August. Be it the English Premier League, Football League, or any of the 17 leagues covered by the stats database on our website. We’ll be on the hunt for pre-season bets and Each Way fancies in the domestic markets, too.

And when the action begins, I’ll be in your inbox multiple times each week, with analysis and match-day picks throughout the season.

The summer schedule…

Right now, though, as we hit mid-June. You’ll only hear from me during this summer when I have some specific bet advice or service information for you. We’re in for a few quiet weeks, as you’d expect in a non-tournament summer. But August and the new campaign will roll around soon enough. And as I say, we’ll be taking aim in the pre-season, ante-post markets from July onwards, too.

With all due respect to the UEFA Nations League fixtures, there’s one big match to be played today – and that’s the final World Cup 2022 Playoff…

After Australia beat Peru on penalties last night, this evening’s intercontinental clash sees the 32nd & final Qatar 2022 qualification place up for grabs:

Costa Rica v New Zealand

Venue: Doha
Kick-off: 7pm UK time

Match odds:
Costa Rica 19/20 (1.95)
Draw 2/1 (3.0)
New Zealand 15/4 (4.75)

To Qualify:
Costa Rica 2/5 (1.4)
New Zealand 15/8 (2.88)

Costa Rica are the bookies’ favourites here, and the argument is that New Zealand are used to facing a lower level of opposition in their Oceania matches. Taking the formbook at face value though, recent results suggest we could be in for a tight score-line tonight:

• 7 of Costa Rica’s last 8 games have gone Under 2.5 Goals. Comprising of 3 x 1-0 wins, 2 x 2-0 victories, a 0-0 draw, a 0-2 defeat, along with a 2-1 win

• 3 of New Zealand’s last 4 games have ended 0-0 or 1-0. With 6 of their last 7 paying out on ‘Both Teams to Score: No’

The standard-of-opponent factor becomes most apparent when you look at the two recent NZ results that went Over 2.5 Goals: a 5-0 win over the Solomon Islands, and a 7-1 trouncing of New Caledonia.

Yesterday’s World Cup qualification playoff between Peru and Australia ended 0-0 before going all the way to penalties. As with this season’s domestic cup finals, I wouldn’t be surprised to see tonight’s decisive one-off, winner-takes-all match go all the way, too.

Selected Method of Victory prices:
Extra Time – Costa Rica 9/1 Bet365
Penalties – Costa Rica 11/1 Skybet
Extra Time – New Zealand 25/1 Skybet
Penalties – New Zealand 11/1 Skybet

In the Correct Score market – which only refers to Normal Time – Costa Rica 1-0 is the 4/1 (5.0) favourite at Skybet and 888 Sport, and shorter everywhere else.

A 0-0 draw is 5/1 (6.0). With the 11/2 (6.5) at Coral the best option on that front, with ‘No Goalscorer’ in the First Goalscorer market an option that covers both the 0-0, and also any result where the only goals are registered as Own Goals.

Under 2.5 Goals is 2/5 (1.4) at best and 1/3 (1.33) in general.

Both Teams to Score: No is also odds-on across the board, at around 1/2 (1.5).

The main men up front – and an 18/1 Scorecast…

If goals are at a premium tonight, then targeting the main men up front could bear fruit in the scorer markets, applying the theory that in big matches, the cream often rises to the top…

For the underdogs, that man is Newcastle striker, Chris Wood. The 30-year-old has scored 33 goals in 67 caps for New Zealand.

For the favourites, 29-year-old former Arsenal forward Joel Campbell is the leading light. Campbell has found the net in three of his last four starts for Costa Rica. Two of those strikes paid out on the First Goal.

Youngster Anthony Contreras is also one to watch; the 22-year-old has scored in two of his last three starts for his country, although is reported to be on the bench this evening. Veteran Bryan Ruiz is also on the radar, with the 36-year-old captain still very much on the scene for Costa Rica.

All of those guys are priced between 2/1 – 3/1 in the Anytime Scorer betting. Joel Campbell is the standout selection for me, at a top price 13/5 (3.6) to find the net.

And for a bigger price that incorporates the low goals/ Correct Score theme outlined in the stats above, the Scorecast combo of ‘Costa Rica 1-0/ Campbell First Scorer’ is also worthy of a speculative play at 18/1.

TODAY’S PICKS

I’ll leave the individual staking decisions up to you. The standout bets I’ve identified in today’s analysis are:

Costa Rica v New Zealand

World Cup 2022 Qualifying, Intercontinental Playoff – 7pm

• Anytime Scorer: Joel Campbell @ 13/5 (3.6) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 12/5 (3.4) Betway, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 2/1 (3.0) Bet365

• Scorecast: Costa Rica 1-0/ Joel Campbell @ 18/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 17/1 BetVictor, 16/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 15/1 Skybet

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues