Monday 21st December 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
Elite sport has been given the green light to continue. Meaning we still have a great football schedule to look forward to this Christmas…
In the Premier League, it continues to be a funny ol’ season…
As it stands, Arsenal are apparently looking for a relegation fight. After a 2-1 defeat at Everton, the Gunners have now lost four of their last five games.
At the weekend, Liverpool got more goals than they did corners. A 7-0 win at Crystal Palace goes on the crazy score-lines list, along with the Reds’ own bizarre 7-2 loss at Aston Villa earlier in the campaign.
Leeds Utd are also one to keep in mind for wild score-lines. Back in September, their return to the Premier League started with a brace of 4-3 results (lost one, won one). Last week, the Elland Road club won 5-2 v Newcastle. Yesterday, they lost 6-2 at Man Utd…
Leeds fan Dave emails in to say:
“A free £5 bet from the Daily Mirror and both teams to score, both halves, not a market I would have ever considered without your advice. William Hill only offered 11/2 but for a free bet I wasn't complaining. Made up for Man U winning anyway”
You can get me at: email@example.com
Delving into the latest stats on our website, Aston Villa and Brighton continue to lead our Most Corners chart…
Man City have ended top of this Most Corners table in each of the last three seasons. Right now, though, Brighton and Villa are setting the pace.
At the weekend, Brighton drew 1-1 v Sheffield Utd, racking up a thumping 14-2 corners score.
Villa won 3-0 at 10-man West Brom, bossing the corner count, 7-1.
Since the start of December, I’ve been hunting for Win & Both Teams to Score (BTTS) contenders in the English Football League, with a three-market plan of attack:
So far, this three-pronged approach has proved profitable, producing payouts on five out of seven occasions…
With Match Win trebles clicking at 13/1 and 15/1. And Both Teams to Score accas landing at odds of 9/2 (twice), and 8/1.
At the weekend, it was a classic case of ‘just one goal away’ from a 9/1 Both Teams to Score combo:
Burton 1 Doncaster 3
Barrow 3 Cheltenham 0
Walsall 4 Port Vale 3
Newport 2 Oldham 4
Two out of four for the Win & BTTS acca isn’t bad going, either… considering the 4-fold jackpot was worth a 364/1 dream ticket. Let’s see if we can edge closer to landing one of those whoppers over Christmas.
More on that department in Wednesday’s email, where I’ll be providing my early preview for the Boxing Day action.
On to another big-odds market now…
On November 19th, our analysis drew attention to the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) market in the Premier League.
Namely, the fact that, so far in 2020/21, the number of HT/ FT comebacks has been running significantly below average.
Considering these turnarounds – Team A to be winning at half time, Team B to come back to win at full time – tend to pay 20/1, 25/1, and 33/1. This is an area well worth keeping an eye on…
When I put together that article last month, 78 Premier League matches had been played – and we were yet to see any HT/ FT flip-flops.
We’re now up to 135 games played in the top-flight, and we’ve seen two such results. On both occasions, Man Utd on the road were the team on the comeback trail:
29th Nov: Southampton 2 Man Utd 3 (HT: 2-0)
5th Dec: West Ham 1 Man Utd 3 (HT: 1-0)
We managed to latch onto one of those, with the HT West Ham/ FT Man Utd option coming in at 25/1.
More flip-flops to come…
To maintain the 4.16% average for HT/ FT turnarounds determined over the last 10 seasons, the remaining 245 games in the 2020/21 Premier League campaign would need to produce 13 more HT/ FT turnarounds…
That’s a rate of around one for every 20 games, or one every two weeks.
Each of the last 10 seasons have produced at least 10 such HT/ FT comebacks…
To hit 10 this term, then eight more such outcomes could be expected between now and the end of the season. That would be a rate of one every 30 games.
So far this season, the Championship, League One, and League Two are all currently running at around 4% – 5% each for HT/ FT turnarounds. In comparison, the figure for the Premier League right now is just 1.48%. Lookout for some potential rollercoaster matches over Christmas and into the New Year.
Between now and Wednesday night there’s action in the European leagues, as well as the EFL Cup quarter finals.
I’ll be back tomorrow, as we continue to prepare for the Christmas fixtures. Then on Wednesday, we’ll be getting our homework in early for the traditional Boxing Day programme.
Enjoy the football…