Friday 23rd October 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

• John lands a 28/1 Correct Score…
• Italian goals tonight…
• A standout price for Sunday…

Weekend angles at 8/1…

Our midweek European match picks ended up breaking even. Atalanta to Win & Over 3.5 Goals was the highlight, at odds of just over 2/1…

In the inbox…

The Italian club’s 4-0 win in Denmark covered that. And things went very well for Across the Leagues member John B, who emailed in to say he took a massive price on the Correct Score:

“Wednesday’s Atlanta game … put my usual £2 bets on the mentioned scores. 4-0 came in at 28/1 (if you don’t believe me ask Victor Chandler, when he’s stopped crying about it)”

Good work, John! A very nice 28/1 winner. The big Correct Score tactic is certainly one to keep in mind for free-scoring Atalanta…

• That 4-0 Champions League win at Midtjylland was the third time in four away games in all competitions this season that Atalanta have scored exactly 4 goals. See below for more on the Serie A goals form – including a game tonight

ATL member Salman also wrote in, although not as good news for him unfortunately, having to settle for a void bet on Vinicius Junior in the Anytime Scorer market on Tuesday:

“Good info regarding Weds Champs League but a side note to maybe include in the future is that Unibet who I placed the anytime goalscorer bet for Vinicius Jnr voided the bet as he didn’t start, so always check the T&C’s for such bets.”

That's a good point, Salman. Unibet (and 888 Sport, and 32RedSport, all the same bookie essentially) are on their own with that rule…

All the other mainstream bookies pay out if the selection plays any part in the match. That includes Bet365 (unless you tick the box 'void if doesn't start'). Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports… all pay out in those circumstances.

• Vinicius Junior came off the bench for Real Madrid in the second half of that game, scoring what turned out to be the last goal of the match. Final score: Real Madrid 2 Shakhtar Donetsk 3

Got something to email me about, or share with your fellow ATL members? Get in touch at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Brace for Lukaku…

The best bit of business we did in Europe this week was taking 33/1 Each Way for Romelu Lukaku in the Champions League 2020/21 Top Goalscorer market…

The Inter Milan striker bagged a brace in a 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach. The Belgian has now scored in eight consecutive matches across the Champions League & Europa League combined. And he’s got nine goals in eight appearances in all comps for club & country so far this season.

With match-day one complete, Lukaku is joint-top of the (very) early Champions League standings with two goals. The takeaway point is that we grabbed the best odds by backing him at 33/1 before the first game… the revised Top Goalscorer market now has Lukaku’s odds slashed in half, to 16/1 at best.

Italian goals tonight…

We can go to the well time and time again with certain teams, players, stats, and bets. But the key is always to look for the opportunities where the best price is available.

A couple of cases in point going into this weekend…

Last night we took a standout 7/2 (4.5) for Andreas Gruber to score Anytime for LASK Linz at Tottenham in the Europa League. We didn’t get the payout that time. But the price was attractive. This Sunday afternoon LASK are at home v St Polten in the Austrian Bundesliga. This time, Gruber’s Anytime Scorer price is back to its normal levels, at around Evens (2.0).

And while we got 9/4 (3.25) for Atalanta to Win & Over 3.5 Goals in the Champions League midweek, this Saturday in Serie A that option is down to 6/4 (2.5) at best for the home clash v Sampdoria.

The Serie A goals stats lead us to another 9/4 shot tonight, though…

Sassuolo v Torino

So far this season, games in the Italian top-flight are averaging almost one goal per game more than the standard Total Goals average. Teams like Atalanta, and Sassuolo, are contributing to those high figures:

• Sassuolo have won 3 games in a row in Serie A, with score-lines of: 1-4, 4-1 and 4-3

With four games played overall, that recent high-scoring run has helped Sassuolo into 2nd place in the fledgling Serie A league table.

This evening’s visitors Torino have lost three out of three so far, sitting bottom of the league. They come into this one on the back of a 2-4 defeat v Atalanta (them again), and a 2-3 loss v Cagliari.

In the match prices for tonight’s game, the home win for Sassuolo is odds-on, at 7/10 (1.7) at best. The Win & Both Teams to Score is around 9/5 (2.8). But as with Atalanta earlier in the week, we can get the odds above 2/1 by taking the Win & Over 3.5 Goals route, which would’ve paid out in all of those recent score-lines highlighted above.

Surprise Scottish Scorers…

Our 125/1 Each Way pre-season pick Callum Hendry has yet to do anything for St Johnstone. But the top of the early 2020/21 Scottish Premiership Top Scorers chart certainly has a couple of surprising names up there…

Rangers right-back James Tavernier has five goals, putting him joint-2nd in the current standings. He scored from the spot in the Europa League last night, too.

In all comps, the defender has now got a remarkable nine goals already this season – easily surpassing his totals for any other campaign at any of his nine other clubs. The 28-year-old has found the net in eight of his last 10 appearances for Rangers, with five goals from the penalty spot.

The bookmakers clearly don’t expect Tavernier’s purple patch to go on throughout the season. From 100/1 in the Top Goalscorer market this summer, he’s still 66/1 with Skybet.

The match prices about him are not too generous, though. Tavernier is around 15/8 (2.88) to score Anytime against Livingston this weekend.

With price the king, as ever, I’m looking instead to a similarly in-form player, available at much bigger odds…

Aberdeen v Celtic

Aberdeen midfielder Lewis Ferguson was a 5/1 Anytime Scorer winner for us in his side’s 2-1 win over St Mirren on 2nd October. Playing against the champions Celtic this Sunday lunchtime, we can get even bigger…

• Ferguson is joint-top of the Scottish Premiership scorer charts right now, with 6 goals from 10 games

In all comps, he’s got seven goals in total, landing Anytime Scorer bets in six of his last 11 appearances for Aberdeen. Four of those strikes have been penalties. His two most recent goals have been from open play.

Aberdeen have managed to get on the score-sheet in defeat in each of their last two meetings with Celtic (both matches ending 2-1). And with Ferguson in-form, and on penalty-taking duty, he stands out at big prices here – catching the eye at a top-price 8/1 to score at Anytime.

Today’s picks

Italy, Serie A

Sassuolo v Torino
TONIGHT 7.45pm

• Sassuolo to Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 23/10 (3.3) with Boylesports, 9/4 (3.25) Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway

Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen v Celtic
Sunday, 12pm

• Anytime Scorer: Lewis Ferguson @ 8/1 (9.0) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 15/2 (8.5) Bet365, 7/1 (8.0) Vbet, 13/2 (7.5) Betfred, 6/1 (7.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor 

I’ll be back on Monday with an update, as we prepare for the start of match-day two in the Champions League on Tuesday.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues