Wednesday 1st September 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• The big boys have moved away…
• Early-bird value in the book…
• Keeping tabs on Tammy…

Why I’m glad Ronaldo has gone to Man Utd…

A month after the season started, the transfer window has finally slammed shut. And it’s brought with it some interesting developments…

Of course, the summer shopping got exciting when Lionel Messi left Barcelona. Not to be outdone, Cristiano Ronaldo thought he’d grab the headlines back for himself…

According to the people and machines that measure such things, news of Ronaldo’s return to Manchester United generated more social media hits, likes, clicks and re-Tweets than Messi to PSG. I make that 1-0 to Ronnie, then.

Tuesday’s deadline day brought a less glamourous move, but one that could nevertheless prove significant for one of our 2021/22 bet selections…

The big boys have moved away…

Odsonne Edouard has gone to Crystal Palace, leaving Celtic & the Scottish Premiership behind to try his hand in the Premier League.

Considering the 23-year-old has been Top Goalscorer in the Scottish top-flight in each of the last two seasons – and gone off as the favourite in the betting both times, too. This Edouard transfer represents good news for you and me…

Back on 28th July, before a ball was kicked in the new season, we got on Martin Boyle at 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way in the Scottish Premiership 2021/22 Top Goalscorer market. The Hibernian striker has made a lightning start to the campaign, scoring in four out of four league games.

Now, not even the likes of Messi & Ronaldo could be expected to keep up a goal-every-game strike-rate. But Boyle’s fast start – combined with Edouard dropping out of the competition – means our original 40/1 or 33/1 pre-season ticket is currently looking good.

Seeing as the race had already begun (Edouard scored two league goals for Celtic in the opening weeks of the season), the bookies can’t cry ‘Rule 4’ and reduce the payout potential for the rest of the field. On day one of the season, Edouard had been the 5/2 (3.5) favourite.

• Boyle is now 14/1 at best in the top scorer market (Bet Victor). With William Hill 12/1, followed by Bet365 and Skybet at 10/1. Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-3 places

It’s a similar case over in Italy…

Before turning his back on Serie A and heading back to Old Trafford, Ronaldo had managed to come off the bench for half an hour in Juventus’ first game of the season. That makes him a ‘live’ runner – although he won’t be scoring any goals. Ronnie went off as the pre-season favourite at 9/4 (3.25).

Our Veteran Scorers Club pick from last month, Oliver Giroud at 20/1 Each Way, got off the mark for his new club AC Milan on Sunday. The 34-year-old scored twice on his home debut in Serie A, as Milan beat Cagliari, 4-1.

• In the revised Top Goalscorer market, the bookies are still offering some decent prices for the French forward. Giroud is 18/1 at Bet365, and 16/1 with William Hill and Skybet. Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places  

Early-bird value in the book…

Overall, we’ve had six Top Goalscorer bets so far this season. All but one of them have opening their scoring accounts – and all six are now trading at shorter odds than when we backed them:

Premier League:
Heung-Min Son @ 40/1 & 33/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-4 places
2 goals – now 25/1 – 16/1

Championship:
Cauley Woodrow @ 66/1 & 50/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-4 places
1 goal – now 40/1 – 25/1

League One:
Anthony Scully @ 100/1 & 66/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-4 places
3 goals – now 50/1 – 20/1

Scottish Premiership:
Lewis Ferguson @ 150/1 & 100/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-3 places
No goals – now 80/1 – 33/1

Scottish Premiership:
Martin Boyle @ 50/1 & 40/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-3 places
4 goals – now 16/1 – 10/1

Italy, Serie A:
Olivier Giroud @ 20/1
Each Way: 1/4 odds 1-4 places
2 goals – now 18/1 – 16/1

Keeping tabs on Tammy…

Another Serie A newcomer that we spoke about last month is Tammy Abraham. As with Giroud, Abraham has been sold by Chelsea, and handed the No.9 shirt at a top-flight Italian club…

Abraham got his first Serie A goal at the weekend in a 4-0 away win, with Jose Mourinho keeping up a 100% record since taking over at Roma this summer (four wins out of four in all competitions).

From odds of 20/1 when the Roma signing was first announced, Abraham is now trading at 14/1 with William Hill in the Serie A top scorer market, and 12/1 at Bet365 & Skybet.

We’ll keep Tammy in mind for when the league action resumes on 12th September. There’s no top-flight football in Europe this coming weekend, as the domestic fixtures make way for the first International break of the season…

Coming up this weekend…

Perhaps still a little giddy from all the Euro 2020 excitement, I’m finding it hard to get interested in any of this evening’s World Cup 2022 Qualifiers.

I can’t say that I’ll be tuning in to watch Latvia v Gibraltar tonight. But I’ll certainly be paying attention to the results and prices. We may get involved come the weekend. There’s actually a non-European team that I’ve got my eye on…

I’ll report back on Friday, when we’ll also have English League One & League Two games to look forward to. With five games’ worth of stats on our website now, we can use the early-season form to identify a couple of potentially lucrative trends.

Plus, with the transfer window now closed, we may well take a fresh look at the 2021/22 season-long markets. With league winner, promotion, and relegation prices all in our thinking, as well as top scorers.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues