Sunday 27th November 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• 4 games today – first kick-off 10am…
• Predictions and Correct Scores…
• Over the Cards for Croatia v Canada…

World Cup, Day 8:

Correct Scores - and a 20/1 Sunday acca...

Welcome to Day 8 of your Across the Leagues World Cup 2022 daily service…

The big boys collected the Man of the Match awards on Saturday. With Robert Lewandowski, Kylian Mbappe, and Lionel Messi all scoring - and all voted the official Player of the Match. It’s a shame that only one bookie is currently covering this market, but at least it’s a mainstream one, with Bet365 the place to go for Man of the Match bets.

Opportunities for a Super Sunday…

I’m looking forward to today’s games. With teams in need of points to either secure their place in the knockout stage, or more pressingly, stay alive in the competition. There’s all to play for…

After Saturday’s action, the Correct Score, Goals, and Half Time stats we looked at yesterday now look like this. With 24 games played, and 40 still to come:

• 6 out of 24 games have paid out on the 2-0 Correct Score (25%). That’s been the most common scoreline, followed by 0-0 (5 of those = 21%)
• 16 games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals (67%)
• 12 games have been goalless at Half Time (50%), paying out on the Half Time draw, and also the 0-0 Half Time score

The 2-0 score-line is the new leader in the Correct Score department, and a couple of those feature in the match predictions…

Japan v Costa Rica

10am, ITV

Match odds: Japan 1/2 (1.5), Draw 16/5 (4.2), Costa Rica 7/1 (8.0)

My prediction: Japan 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Japan 2-0

Japan beat Germany in their first game, and as poor as the Germans were in that one, Japan’s performance was high-energy and they showed they had some speedy attacking quality, too. Costa Rica were completely listless in a 7-0 battering by Spain.

While we shouldn’t go overboard after just one game each (Iran bounced back to win after losing their opener 6-2 against England, for example). I do like Japan to build on their surprise-package status here. The win is going in today’s acca, and the 2-0 Correct Score at 5/1+(6.0+) appeals, too. See below.

Belgium v Morocco

1pm, BBC

Match odds: Belgium 10/11 (1.91), Draw 12/5 (3.4), Morocco 7/2 (4.5)

My prediction: Belgium 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Belgium 2-0

There was nothing special about Belgium’s 1-0 win over Canada the other night; in fact, they were lucky to win. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois saved a first-half penalty, and having one of the world’s best goalies between the sticks could prove crucial if boss Roberto Martinez’s prediction that his team will improve as the tournament progresses is to prove correct…

Talking of predictions, I’ve got this one down as another potential 2-0 score-line, and when I clicked over to the BBC website, I saw that Chris Sutton thinks so, too. Belgium and the 2-0 win are going in today’s selections.

Belgium (Outright Winner, and Name the Finalists along with Brazil) and their midfield talisman Kevin De Bruyne (Golden Ball, and Top Scorer) featured in my pre-tournament picks - all available on our email archive. Bigger prices than originally quoted are available this morning. That may change if the 2018 semi-finalists can get their World Cup into gear this afternoon…

De Bruyne landed us a Man of the Match winner at 4/1 (5.0) against Canada. This time he’s shorter, an Even Money favourite with Bet365 (2.0).

Croatia v Canada

4pm, BBC

Match odds: Croatia 5/4 (2.25), 23/10 (3.3), Canada 12/5 (3.4)

My prediction: Croatia 1-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 0-1 Canada

This one has been given a bit of extra spice, with the Canadian manager’s fighting talk riling the Croatian camp (and media). Add in the fact that both teams will be desperate for the points here - with both failing to win their opening game. And we have the recipe for a Total Cards tally that could go ‘Over’ the bookies’ betting line…

Bet365 have set the bar at 4.5 Cards. That’s one yellow card higher than the 3.5 line set for the day’s other three games, but we do get an odds-against price. And given the circumstances, it’s probably justified. Four of the eight second-round matches played so far have paid out Over 4.5 Cards. And that bet also would’ve delivered in half of Canada’s 14 World Cup Qualification matches - as well as in their opening Qatar 2022 defeat to Belgium.

I’ve done a bit of extra digging here, and today’s referee, Andreas Matonte Cabrera, will be taking charge of his first game of the tournament. Last month, at home in the Uruguayan league, Matonte dished out four red cards in a feisty match between Boston River and Wanderers….

Spain v Germany

7pm, BBC

Match odds: Spain 11/8 (2.38), Draw 12/5 (3.4), Germany 2/1 (3.0)

My prediction: 2-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1

If these two teams show up how they did on matchday one, then Germany will be going home. I’m looking for top-scorer outsider Serge Gnabry to do something for the Germans. It’s possible that Spain will take their foot off the gas at some point this evening, and the odds for a draw can contribute nicely to a Sunday acca…

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

JAPAN v COSTA RICA

• Correct Score: Japan 2-0 @ 11/2 (6.5) Bet365, Boylesports, 5/1 (6.0) in general 

BELGIUM v MOROCCO

• Correct Score: Belgium 2-0 @ 8/1 (9.0) Bet365, BetVictor, 15/2 (8.5) William Hill, Boylesports, 7/1 (8.0) in general

MATCH RESULTS:

• Four-fold acca: Japan, Belgium, Croatia to win & Spain-Germany draw @ 20/1 Boylesports and in general

CROATIA v CANADA

• Total Cards: Over 4.5 @ 7/5 (2.4) Betway, Total Booking Points: Over 45 @ 5/4 (2.25) William Hill, Total Over Booking Points: 50+ Booking Points @ 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, Total Cards: Over 4.5 Cards @ 6/5 (2.2) Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Find out more about how Cards and Booking Points bets work in the Betting Guide on our website, here.

I’ll see you tomorrow, with four games on the Monday schedule, and the first kick-off at 10am. Lookout for your email at 8am, and on the email archive just after.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues