Monday 28th November 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• 4 games today – first kick-off 10am…
• Standout stats and prices…
• Kick-off times change tomorrow…

World Cup, Day 9:

Swiss Cards - and don’t mess with Ronnie…

Welcome to Day 9 of your Across the Leagues World Cup 2022 daily service…

Super Sunday soon turned into Shock Sunday, with Japan and Belgium both turned over in pretty big against-the-odds results. Being an underdog bettor is one thing; finding the days when it’s going to happen at this World Cup is so far proving very tough.

The Costa Rica and Morocco double was worth 30/1 - not that I’ve seen or heard of anyone who had those two results down before kick-off.

Definitely a frustrating last few days on the betting front, but we’re still only in the Group stage, and there are 36 matches yet to come. Round three of the Group fixtures starts tomorrow, with the kick-off times now moving to 3pm and 7pm. In those match-ups, we’ll know which teams need what in order to qualify for the Knockouts.

And with the Last 16, Quarter Finals, Semi Finals, and then of course the Final itself - there are going to be plenty of big-time matches for us to get stuck-in to across the next three weeks.

There’s a long way to go yet, and I’m going to be rolling up my sleeves, getting my game-face on, and providing you with as much daily info & analysis as possible to help us turn this tournament in our favour. Let’s get down to it…

Favourites boss the corners…

Some results went against the expected yesterday - while others remained the same…

For example, the 2-0 score-line remains the most prolific Correct Score bet of the competition, even if that outcome came out the wrong way round in the Belgium-Morocco match. With these 2-0 scores part of the overall presiding theme for Under 2.5 Goals, after yesterday’s games produced another three-out-of-four results in the low-goals category:

• 7 out of 28 games have paid out on the 2-0 Correct Score (25%)
• 19 games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals (68%)
• 15 games have been goalless at Half Time (54%), paying out on the Half Time draw, and also the 0-0 Half Time Correct Score

All four pre-match favourites won the Most Corners yesterday, continuing a theme that we picked up on last week. Japan (5-0), Belgium (9-1), Croatia (5-2), and Spain (6-5) combined for a dominant 25-8 aggregate corners score.

The match favourites and (on paper) better team bossing the corners has been a frequent theme so far, and one that we can target again in the days to come.

Here are the stats and prices that jump out for me today…

Cameroon v Serbia

10am, ITV

Match odds: Cameroon 9/2 (5.5), Draw 13/5 (3.6), Serbia 3/4 (1.75)

My prediction: Serbia 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1

A lot of the early kick-offs have been turgid affairs (this is the last one), but at some point in this game, Cameroon and/ or Serbia are going to have to come out and play…

Having both lost their opening matches, if you’re going to get out of a Group that contains Brazil, then you need to go for three points in a fixture like this.

Serbia are the team I know the most about here. Our Player Card pick from the last game v Brazil, Strahinja Pavlovic, is priced at around 13/5 (3.6) today. But with the defender already on a booking and therefore, one card away from a suspension, Pavlovic might be best left to next target in the final Group game coming up against Switzerland, which is a fixture that I’ve got plenty to say about - more on that when they meet on Friday.

Now looks like the time to back the best for Serbia, and that means taking their leading frontman Aleksandar Mitrovic to score. Prior to the Brazil game, he’d found the net in four games in a row for his country. Mitrovic Anytime Scorer at odds-against is the bet here.

On that favourite/ Most Corners angle:

• Before their opening World Cup game v Brazil, Serbia won the Most Corners in 11 out of 12 games

A direct approach might be needed to eventually bludgeon a way through Cameroon today, and that can lead to not only aerial and penalty-box chances for Mitrovic, but also a healthy corners tally for Serbia. The -2 Corner Handicap warrants support at 5/4 (2.25).

South Korea v Ghana

1pm, BBC

Match odds: South Korea 13/8 (2.63), Draw 21/10 (3.1), Ghana 2/1 (3.0)

My prediction: 2-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: South Korea 1-0

South Korea were in my notes pre-tournament as one to follow in the Corners markets:  

• The Korea Republic won the Most Corners in 9 out of 10 games in World Cup Qualifying

This match could get end-to-end late on, but I’m taking the marginal match favourites to create the most action near the byline and around the corner flags…

South Korea at 10/11 (1.91) for the Most Corners is the recommendation. This market is called Corners Match Bet with some firms (eg. Bet365, Paddy Power), -0.5 Corner Handicap with others (eg. Boylesports). Betway calls it Full Time Corners Win.

Brazil v Switzerland

4pm, ITV

Match odds: Brazil 4/9 (1.44), Draw 10/3 (4.33), Switzerland 7/1 (8.0)

My prediction: Brazil 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Brazil 2-1

No Neymar for trophy favourites Brazil here, but still plenty of samba stars for the Swiss players to clatter into in the tackle, fairly or otherwise…

The Swiss aren’t an ugly team per se, but they can certainly get scrappy when the situation and emotion goes that way.

Switzerland paid out on the Most Cards and Most Booking Points in their opening game against Cameroon. While Brazil didn’t get any against Serbia.

When these nations last met at World Cup 2018, the Swiss got three yellow cards to Brazil’s one (Booking Points: 30-10). Taking the match underdogs as the Cards & Bookings favourite is the way to go here.

Swiss centre-backs Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi are both already on a booking from the first game, which is not ideal when you’re about to take on Brazil.

Arsenal’s somewhat-reformed Mr Angry, Granit Xhaka is the bookies’ favourite in the Player to be Carded markets, at around 6/4 (2.5). At more than double the price, full-back Silvan Widmer looks the value at 4/1 (5.0) - with Betfred once again a standout price in this market, at 7/1 (8.0).

Portugal v Uruguay

7pm, ITV

Match odds: Portugal Evens (2.0), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Uruguay 16/5 (4.2)

My prediction: 1-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 0-0

Keep it simple here: Cristiano Ronaldo is the main man, and I like the odds-against prices for him to score. He usually likes to match what Lionel Messi does, blow for blow - or better. Messi has scored in two out of two games so far, as has young gun Kylian Mbappe. And if Portugal get a penalty, only one man is taking it…

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Cameroon v Serbia:

• Anytime Scorer: Aleksandar Mitrovic @ 13/8 (2.63) Skybet, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral 
• Serbia -2 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 (2.25) Boylesports, William Hill, Betway, 6/5 (2.2) BetVictor, 23/20 (2.15) Unibet, 11/10 (2.1) Bet365

South Korea v Ghana:

• Most Corners: South Korea @ 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill, Betway, 4/5 (1.8) Unibet

Brazil v Switzerland:

• Most Cards: Switzerland @ 8/11 (1.73) Unibet, 4/6 (1.67) Betway, 8/13 (1.62) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Most Booking Points: Switzerland @ 4/6 (1.67) Skybet, 13/20 (1.65) William Hill. Switzerland 0 Card Handicap @ 8/15 (1.53) Bet365
• Player to be Carded: Silvan Widmer @ 7/1 (8.0) Betfred, 9/2 (5.5) Unibet, 4/1 (5.0) Skybet, Betway, 10Bet, 7/2 (4.5) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Sporting Index Fixed Odds

Portugal v Uruguay:

• Anytime Scorer: Cristiano Ronaldo @ 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, 6/4 (2.5) general

Kick-off times change tomorrow…

I’ll see you tomorrow, with four games on the Tuesday schedule, and the first kick-off at 3pm. Lookout for your email every matchday from now at 12 noon, and posted on the email archive just after.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues