Friday 9th June 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Man City v Inter Milan…
• Bet Builder stats…
• KdB to deliver once again… 

Champions League final stats - and a 111/1 Bet Builder…

To celebrate the big match this weekend, I’m sharing my members-only Across the Leagues Champions League final preview with you - for FREE. Containing standout stats and prices for Man City v Inter Milan…

Where were you for the Miracle of Istanbul?

I was at my friend Shaun’s house. He’s got Liverpool shirts dating back to when we were kids. With the Reds 0-3 down to AC Milan at half time, it’s fair to say the atmosphere in his living room wasn’t great. But that all changed in the second half…

No matter who you support, there were plenty of wow moments for any football fan that night. A 3-3 comeback, goal-line heroics, extra time. And of course, the sweaty drama of a penalty shootout.

Eighteen years later, and the UEFA Champions League final is back in Istanbul with another Premier League club taking on a team from Milan…

Manchester City v Inter Milan

Champions League Final – Saturday 8pm, BT Sport

Venue: Ataturk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Szymon Mariniak

If Man City were to do to Inter what Liverpool did to AC Milan in 2005, then it’s 20/1 for Half Time: Inter/ Full Time: Draw in William Hill’s HT/ FT ‘Double Result’ market. With City 14/1 with Bet365 to win on Penalties.

The general consensus however, is that the Premier League champions will get it done in normal time. With Man City priced at 4/9 (1.44) in general to win the game outright. And 2/9 (1.22) To Lift the Cup by any means.

Back the best…

At the start of the season, I declared that City primarily signed Erling Haaland to help finally achieve their goal of winning the Champions League. I don’t expect any praise for that statement. Sometimes you really do have to just trust in the best to do the business on the biggest stage though…

Having made a mockery of the Premier League Golden Boot ‘race’ this season, walloping in a record 36 goals, finishing six ahead of Harry Kane despite starting fewer games. Haaland is also on course to scoop up the Champions League Top Goalscorer gong, too. Sitting four clear of the field on 12 goals, with the nearest Inter Milan player being Edin Dzeko on four goals.

Key stat:

• Haaland has never gone 3 Champions League games without scoring…

The Norwegian sensation failed to find the net in both legs of the semi-final v Real Madrid. But he had a hatful of chances. And having also drawn a blank in his last Premier League start of the season at Brighton, and in last weekend’s FA Cup final triumph. I wouldn’t expect the 22-year-old to stay quiet for much longer. And Haaland loves the big occasion…

Erling is the general 4/6 (1.67) favourite to Score Anytime. And the market leader for First Scorer, at just over 2/1 (3.0+).

Bet Builder:

Those Haaland odds aren’t anything to get too excited about on their own. But the Anytime Scorer price is plenty fair enough to go in as one leg of a Bet Builder, likely to keep us interested for the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time…

Here are the other standout stats from my research for this huge fixture:

• Last 4 Champions League Finals - all Under 2.5 Goals (1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0)

• 4 of last 6 CL Finals - Under 9.5 Corners (8, 4, 8, 17, 14, 2)

• 4 of last 5 CL Finals - Under 3.5 Cards (1 yellow, 3, 8, 0, 1)

• Last 6 CL Finals all settled in Normal Time. Prior to that, 3 out of 5 had gone to Extra Time, with 2 Penalty Shootouts

After what City did to Madrid in the 2nd leg of the semi final, winning 4-0 – and it could easily have been more. And to be fair, considering also what Inter did to their rivals AC Milan in their semi – going 2-0 up after 11 minutes in the 1st leg. I’m not sure about Under 2.5 Goals going in the Bet Builder here. Yes, those two semi-final examples were at City and Inter’s respective home grounds. But even in a neutral venue for the final, there’s enough scoring talent on the pitch to put me off the recent 1-0 trend in the CL finals.

And if we further investigate the other stats trends listed above…

As illustrated in the League Stats pages on our website, Man City in the Premier League and Inter Milan in Serie A both finished the season with matching 68% records for Under 10.5 Corners payouts. Ranking joint-1st and joint-6th in their respective divisions.

City were the cleanest team in the Premier League 2022/23. Earning the Most Booking Points (Most Cards) in just a handful of their 38 games (13%). While only two teams in Italy’s Serie A received the Most Bookings in fewer games than Inter’s 10 out of 38 (26%).

Inter were a very respectable 19th of 20 Serie A teams for Total Yellow Cards this season (65 Yellow Cards). With Man City joint-20th for the lowest total number of Yellows in the Premier League this campaign (43).

One word of warning. After what we saw from the two recent other UEFA cup finals, both of which also featured Italian sides. With eventual Europa League final losers Roma racking up a 5-1 yellow-card score in normal time against Sevilla. And in this week’s Europa Conference League final, runners-up Fiorentina playing their part in a 3-3 card count with West Ham (6 Yellow Cards in the match overall, 60 Booking Points). There is the potential for Inter Milan to lose their heads if City are dominating proceedings.

Going on the stats though, and the recent trend for referees to at least try (or having been instructed to) keep their cards in their pocket and ‘let the game flow.’ I’m going with the Under 4.5 Cards line here, which is one card better than the 3.5-line we might see on another day.

The Under 4.5 Cards (or Under 45 Booking Points) bet would allow for four bookings in normal time from Saturday’s Polish ref, Szymon Mariniak… who just so happened to be the man with the whistle when we bagged our glory-days winning Bet Builder in December’s World Cup final (Total Cards score in normal time that day = 4 Yellows, 40 Booking Points).

Mariniak was universally praised for the way he managed that World Cup final encounter between France and Argentina. Let’s have more of the same sensible, quality refereeing in this weekend’s Champions League showpiece match, please.

In terms of who’s going to lift the cup, I’m firmly behind Man City here.

These four legs come out as a 3/1 Bet Builder with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook…

To Lift the Cup: Man City
Player to Score: Erling Haaland
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 4.5 Cards

And to really spice up the price, adding in a Player Card contender from midfield for each team sends the price soaring to 111/1 for this six-legged combo:

To Lift the Cup: Man City
Player to Score: Erling Haaland
Under 10.5 Corners
Under 4.5 Cards
Player Shown a Card: Nicolo Barella
Player Shown a Card: Bernardo Silva

• Barella was Inter’s 2nd-most-carded player in Serie A this season (behind defender Marcelo Brozovic, who is likely to start on the bench). The talented but combative Barella was also booked in the Champions League semi final against AC Milan

• Bernardo Silva was a recent Card pick for us. He’s been booked in 2 of his last 4 starts for Man City, and in 2 of his last 4 in the Champions League (v Real Madrid and Bayern Munich). Silva was City’s joint-most-carded player in the Premier League this season

• Various Bet Builder coupons and markets are also available with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, Unibet

KdB to deliver once again…

He didn’t bring home the bacon for us at the World Cup. But Kevin De Bruyne remains an absolute top-class performer in a Man City shirt. A man to trust to come up with the goods on the big stage. Be it with a free kick or a long-range screamer… a sumptuous through ball, or an assist courtesy of his wonderful vision and array of passes…

As you can tell, I’m a fan. And the good thing about a massive match like this is that we actually get a Player of the Match market to shoot at. De Bruyne can be backed at 9/2 (5.5) or 4/1 (5.0) for the official UEFA Player of the Match Award, with the bookies listed below. Others may go up with this market on Saturday, too.

Of course, the likes of Haaland, and City captain Ilkay Gundogan (to name just two) are also appealing candidates here. But I’m with KdB.

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Man City v Inter Milan

• Bet Builder: 4 legs as listed above @ 3/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• Bet Builder: 6 legs as listed above @ 111/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• UEFA Player of the Match: Kevin De Bruyne @ 9/2 (5.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1 (5.0) Skybet, Bet365

Enjoy the final – and enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra