Friday 10th January 2025

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• FA Cup this weekend…
• In search of upsets…
• Form Guide…

Congratulations to Boabiwan, winning the Predictor prize last weekend with 58 points…

On the overall leaderboard, PeterBlyth remains back in top spot…

• Check out the latest standings here

Our free Premier League Predictor game will continue with Round 21 next week, with midweek fixtures taking place from Tuesday - Thursday next week.

Lookout for the next Predictor email on Tuesday.

FA Cup 3rd Round weekend…

This weekend, the top-flight league action is on hold for the FA Cup 3rd Round…

It’s at this stage that Premier League (and Championship) clubs enter the fray. Over the last decade or so, the 3rd Round has averaged in the region of five shocks…

It’s not an exact science to produce that number, of course. But in this instance, we’re defining a ‘shock’ as a Premier League outfit failing to beat a team from a lower division…

There’s maybe a bit more spice in the upset mix this season, with 3rd Round replays scrapped. This weekend’s ties will all be settled on the day, with extra time and penalties if required…

The recipe for a cup upset includes such variables as league position, what’s at stake beyond the cup (eg. priorities: title-race, Europe, promotion, relegation).

And team news will play a part, too. For example, if a manager puts the second-choice goalie in for a cup match, then that’s often an indicator of their wider approach and aims with that particular competition…

Potential banana skins…

There are only two all-Premier League ties on this weekend’s schedule: Aston Villa v West Ham, and Arsenal v Man Utd.

From the rest of the list, these fixtures are on our radar in particular as ‘potential banana skins’ for the top-flight clubs…

Bottom of the Premier League teams in bold, lower-league opponents in red:

Bristol City v Wolves (17th)

Ipswich Town (18th) v Bristol Rovers

Leicester City (19th) v QPR

Southampton (20th) v Swansea

The bookies aren’t taking any chances on Wolves slipping up, with Bristol City priced around the same as the Premier League club to win that game in normal time, at 7/4 (2.75).

While QPR and Swansea are both available at odds of 3/1+ (4.0+) for away-day upsets, at Leicester and Southampton, respectively…

Bristol Rovers would be the biggest shock of the lot on paper, with the bookmakers pricing the League One side at 12/1 for the win - and 15/2 (8.5) To Qualify for the next round by any means (Paddy Power). Rovers went through via a penalty shootout at Barnsley in the 2nd Round…

Form Guide…

Salford in League Two and Leyton Orient in League One are the top sides in our league Last 5 Form tables right now - both with five wins out of five…

If those teams carry their winning streak into the cup this weekend, then lookout for them in these ties…

I guess you would need to be brave to back Salford for a 40/1 shock at Premier League champions Man City…

But Leyton Orient at 2/1 at home against out-of-form Derby County has a much more likely ring to it…

P.S

Each Way picks for the Cup…

If you’re not a member of our full Across the Leagues service, then get onboard here and you can get instant access to our two Each Way picks in the FA Cup Outright Winner market…

We’re going for two outsiders with intriguing cup credentials, at odds of 33/1+...

Join here for instant access…

We’ll be back on Tuesday…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra