Friday 7th January 2022

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• FA Cup 3rd round…
• Potential banana skins…
• 5 shocks expected – on average… 

FA Cup 3rd round shock-hunter…

With the FA Cup taking centre stage this week, there are no Premier League Predictions to be made this week.

Instead, I’m taking a look at the recent historical record for the FA Cup 3rd round, which is traditionally one of the highlights on the English football calendar…

The 3rd round is made up of 32 matches. This year 14 of those ties feature a Premier League club taking on lower-league opposition (see below).

I’ve gone through the historical stats to look at the strike-rate of results over the past six seasons.

The findings tell us that on average there have been five ‘shocks’ per year in the 3rd round. With a shock defined here as a Premier League side failing to win against a team from a lower division.

Here are the numbers:

2020/21:
15 Home Wins (47%)
7 Draws – Normal Time (22%)
10 Away Wins (31%)

Shocks:
From 14 ties played in the 3rd round in 2020/21 that featured a team from outside the top-flight taking on Premier League opposition. One managed to win in 90 minutes, and four more took the big boys to extra time & penalties on the day: Crawley 3 Leeds Utd 0, Blackpool 2 West Brom 2, Burnley 1 MK Dons 1, Newport County 1 Brighton 1, Everton 1 Rotherham 1.

2019/20:
15 Home Wins (47%)
8 Draws (25%)
9 Away Wins (28%)

Shocks: Crystal Palace 0 Derby County 1, Brighton 0 Sheffield Wednesday 1, Fulham 2 Aston Villa 1, Rochdale 1 Newcastle 1, Middlesbrough 1 Tottenham 1, Watford 3 Tranmere Rovers 3

2018/19:
18 Home Wins (56%)
4 Draws (13%)
10 Away Wins (31%)

Shocks: Fulham 1 Oldham 2, Newport County 2 Leicester 1, Bristol City 1 Huddersfield 0, Derby County 2 Southampton 2, Gillingham 1 Cardiff 0, Newcastle 1 Blackburn 1

2017/18:
14 Home Wins (44%)
8 Draws (25%)
10 Away Wins (31%)

Shocks: Nottingham Forest 4 Arsenal 2, Coventry 2 Stoke 1, Fleetwood 0 Leicester 0, Norwich 0 Chelsea 0, Bournemouth 2 Wigan 2

2016/17:
13 Home Wins (41%)
9 Draws (28%)
10 Away Wins (31%)

Shocks: Millwall 3 Bournemouth 0, Stoke 0 Wolves 2, West Brom 1 Derby County 2, Liverpool 0 Plymouth 0, Bolton 0 Crystal Palace 0, Norwich 2 Southampton 2

2015/16:
13 Home Wins (41%)
11 Draws (34%)
8 Away Wins (25%)

Shocks: Oxford 3 Swansea 2, Exeter 2 Liverpool 2, West Brom 2 Bristol City 2, Wycombe 1 Aston Villa 1

Combined, those last-six-seasons figures add up to:

Home Wins 46%
Draws 24%
Away Wins 30%

• Average of 5 shocks in the 3rd round each season (non-Premier League team win or draw or Normal Time) 

Potential banana skins…

Last season there were 14 ties that pitched a Premier League side against a lower-league opponent. Five of them resulted in an upset, in the shape of one win, and four (Normal Time) draws for the underdogs.

This year there are once again 14 ties that meet that Premier League v Football League/ Non League criteria…

If recent seasons are anything to go by – with the average for five ‘shocks’ in the 3rd round. Then we can expect to see around a third of these 14 ties produce an upset, which would be determined here by a lower-level side getting the win, or the full-time draw.

• Note: as with last season, replays have been scrapped for the 3rd round. If ties are level at the end of normal time, extra time will be played, with penalties if required

Here are the 14 matches that fit the criteria…

There’s no crystal ball. But the evidence of the last half-dozen seasons says to expect in the regions of five of these to see the Premier League outfit fail to win in Normal Time:

(Premier League teams in CAPS)

Swindon v MAN CITY

BURNLEY v Huddersfield

Millwall v CRYSTAL PALACE

NEWCASTLE v Cambridge Utd

Port Vale v BRENTFORD

West Brom v BRIGHTON

CHELSEA v Chesterfield

Hull v EVERTON

Swansea v SOUTHAMPTON

Charlton v NORWICH

LIVERPOOL v Shrewsbury

TOTTENHAM v Morecambe

WOLVES v Sheffield United

Nottingham Forest v ARSENAL

If you want my idea of a potential upset, then I’m going for Huddersfield to give a good account of themselves at Burnley…

Their Premier League hosts are in the relegation zone, with Burnley managing just one win in their last 13 games in all competitions. In comparison, Huddersfield are 6th in the Championship, and unbeaten in 6.

• Huddersfield to win in Normal Time is 15/4 (4.75). The underdog To Qualify is 2/1 (3.0). Those prices are with Bet365

Happy hunting!

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra