Thursday 28th July 2022

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• League Winners & Top Scorers – facts and fiction...
• Proof that it pays to look beyond the favourites…
• 2022/23 ante-post bets: our plan of attack…

Just 25% of Top Scorers tick this box…

Hello again. I hope you’re having a good summer. There’s not long to wait until the new season kicks off…

The 2022/23 English Football League season starts this weekend. The Premier League follows a week after. I’m busy doing my research. Over the coming days, I’ll be sharing my initial ante-post analysis with you. As well as giving you the chance to get your hands on our first Outright & Each Way bets for the new campaign.

To get the ball rolling today, here’s an interesting angle for us to consider when approaching one of our key season-long markets: Top Goalscorer…

League Winners & Top Scorers – facts and fiction…

The team that wins the league usually has the top scorer. It feels that way, right?

Man City & Sergio Aguero...

Man Utd & Andy Cole…

Well, no. Actually, those combos never happened.

In his decade at Manchester City, the only time Aguero finished the season as the Premier League’s Top Scorer was in 2014/15 – when Chelsea won the league.

Alex Ferguson’s Man Utd side were crowned champions five times in six seasons between 1995/96 and 2000/01. Andy Cole’s Old Trafford career spanned that period – but he didn’t finish top of the Premier League scorer table in a single one of those campaigns.

Pub quiz questions…

If it came up in a pub quiz, I reckon quite a few people would say Sergio Aguero had been top scorer more times than not when Man City won the league. But they’d be wrong. In fact, the Argentinean only collected the Premier League Golden Boot award once in his 10 seasons at the Etihad.

When it comes to betting, football myths and assumptions can be dangerous, foolish even. And they can cost you money.

Here at Across the Leagues, we do our own homework. We look at the numbers, and look at what they tell us. In terms of finishing top of the league and having the top-scoring player, the numbers say it happens less than many punters might think…

And that’s important to know. Because otherwise, you could end up pouring your hard-earned coins away by backing the big-name Top Scorer at dangerously short odds. Or take the bait with a bookies’ bet like the constructed ‘League Winner & Top Scorer’ double – again, at an uninspiring, poor value price.

Following that line of enquiry regarding league winners and top scorers, here’s another pub-quiz one for you…

• When Leicester City shocked the football world and won the Premier League 2015/16 title as 5,000/1 outsiders, did Jamie Vardy win the Golden Boot? Nope. It was Tottenham’s Harry Kane

Using a decade of data…

Let’s consult the numbers.

In the last 10 Premier League seasons, the league winner & top scorer combo has clicked into place on just one occasion. And in each of the last nine campaigns, it hasn’t happened at all:

That last Premier League decade is no anomaly. Working our way down the English Football League ladder, the figures show us that the pattern is consistent…

Three winning combinations in the last 10 years in the Championship:

Four league winner & top scorer doubles in the last 10 seasons in League One:

And just the two combos in the last 10 instalments of League Two:

Just 25% of Top Scorers tick this box…

That’s a total of 10 league winner & same-club top scorer combinations, from a possible 40, across the Premier League and Football League in the last 10 seasons.

Those numbers say it’s only a 25% chance that the top scoring player will also be getting a league winner medal. It’s more likely that the Top Goalscorer winner won’t play for the team that lifts the trophy.

In the entire 30-year history of the Premier League, that golden combo has occurred a total of nine times. That’s a 30% strike-rate.

Do the big boys dominate in Europe?

Let’s expand our 10-year research out to some other leagues, and see how the ratios compare:

• Italy, Serie A – the league-winning team hasn’t featured the top-scoring player in any of the last 10 seasons

• Germany, Bundesliga – 6 of the last 10 seasons have seen the title winner & top scorer double. All 6 of those came via Bayern Munich & Robert Lewandowski (Lewandowski has now left for Barcelona)

• Spain, La Liga – 5 of the last 10 La Liga campaigns have clicked for the league winner & top scorer combo. That’s down to the dominance of Barcelona and Real Madrid, with those clubs collecting 8 of the last 10 titles. With star-name top scorers Lionel Messi & Luis Suarez for Barca, and Cristiano Ronaldo & Karim Benzema for Madrid

Scottish outsiders…

In the Scottish Premiership, Celtic have won the title nine times out of 10. Doing the league winner/ top scorer double on four occasions (with a top scorer dead-heat last season):

2021/22 – R.Charles-Cook (Ross County), G.Giakoumakis (Celtic)
2020/21 – O.Edouard (Celtic) – Rangers won the league
2019/20 – O.Edouard (Celtic)
2018/19 – A.Morelos (Rangers)
2017/18 – K.Boyd (Kilmarnock)
2016/17 – L.Boyce (Ross County)
2015/16 – L.Griffiths (Celtic)
2014/15 – A.Rooney (Aberdeen)
2013/14 – K.Commons (Celtic)
2012/13 – M.Higdon (Motherwell)

The likes of Regan Charles-Cook, Kris Boyd, Liam Boyce, Adam Rooney, and Michael Higdon would certainly not have gone off as favourites in the Top Scorer betting in those respective top-scoring seasons.

When it comes to the outright odds for 2022/23, it could pay for us to spend some time looking for a viable outsider in the Scottish Premiership scorers list…

Last season, we were only one goal away from bagging a substantial Each Way place payout, with Aberdeen’s Lewis Ferguson backed pre-season in the Across the Leagues members-only service at 150/1. Ferguson has now moved on to Bologna in Italy.

In comparison, Odsonne Edouard started 2021/22 as the 7/2 (4.5) favourite in Scotland… and Celtic ended up selling him to Crystal Palace on transfer deadline day in August.

This is why we look beyond the favourites...

A short price doesn’t guarantee any outcome…

Last season, Harry Kane started as the 3/1 favourite to be Premier League Top Scorer. He finished in 4th place. Meaning that if you’d backed him Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places), you’d have actually lost money on your season-long bet on Harry.

Our ante-post Across the Leagues pick was Kane’s teammate Heung-Min Son, who finished in a tie for 1st place, giving a very profitable half-stake payout at odds of 40/1, as well as a full-stake place return at 10/1.

Those are a couple of great examples of our approach to the Top Goalscorer market. Where our main business is done by looking beyond the obvious names at short prices – instead, betting Each Way at much more attractive odds, on less-fancied players...

I’ve got lots more to say about the scorer markets. And that’s just one area for us to consider in the early stages of the new 2022/23 season. With outright markets such as League Winner, Top 4 Finish, Promotion, To Make the Playoffs, and Relegation, all also on the radar. As ever, we’ll be doing our homework – and looking to grab some great prices.

Tune in tomorrow, when I’ll be in your inbox with some more ante-post analysis, as we prepare to pull the trigger with our first bets of the season.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues